Nuclear weapons,existential threats,and the stability–instability paradox

Recent scholarship has largely ignored systematic differences in the existential threats that nuclear-weapon possessors pose to other states. This study theorizes that the capacity to pose existential threats shapes nuclear-armed states’ willingness to use military force against one another. We explore three hypotheses regarding how nuclear-based existential threats can deter conflict or encourage it, including under the conditions proposed by the stability–instability paradox. We rely on a statistical analysis of nuclear-armed dyads from 1950 to 2001 and employ the Nuclear Annihilation Threat (NAT) Index to capture variation in the existential threats nuclear-armed states pose to one another. We find that being able to pose an existential threat to another state emboldens potential initiators to use military force but does not deter attacks. The emboldening effects are particularly strong under the hypothesized conditions of the stability–instability paradox. Our study provides unique contributions to ongoing debates over the political effects of nuclear weapons.     

文化认同悖论及对兵团文化发展的影响

文化认同本质上是一种价值选择与体认。“兵团人”以“爱国奉献”作为自己的价值选择在形成高度文化认同的同时，也创造了独特的兵团文化。在文化全球化发展的今天，经济对文化发展的影响日益显著。在区域经济与文化发展日益不平衡的背景下，兵团人对兵团文化的认同正面临着挑战。理性客观分析“兵团人”在文化认同上所面临的挑战，既有助于兵团文化的进一步发展，也有利于为兵团经济社会的发展提供持久的精神动力。     

Improving series and parallel systems through mixtures of duplicated dependent components

We discuss suitable conditions such that the lifetime of a series or of a parallel system formed by two components having nonindependent lifetimes may be stochastically improved by replacing the lifetimes of each of the components by an independent mixture of the individual components' lifetimes. We also characterize the classes of bivariate distributions where this phenomenon arises through a new weak dependence notion. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

泛系相对论与供求因缘悖憾(一)——悖论的泛系研究

泛系理论是一种侧重泛系或者广泛联系的一种多层网络型的跨学科新研究 ,探索数理·逻辑·科学思维、系统思维、哲理·辩证思维、美学·诗化思维的某些结合 (联四维 )。泛系理论专门开发了网联不同领域多种专题的泛系相对论、供求因缘悖感分析与泛系悖论。本文论述有关的理法与释例 ,包括数理工医文社史哲许多相对性、悖论与供求因缘悖憾的泛系理悟 ,可以简化强化为 :“泛系悖论 =泛系相对论 +泛系供求论”。具体内容涉及 :泛系理论框架 784e ,泛系相对论·泛系辩证·泛系悖论的 8题 16模式百例 2 9说。     

社会发展悖论与和谐社会建设的相关性分析及对策建议

和谐社会建设的根本目的是要实现人与人、人与自然关系的和谐,但所面临的市场经济的个人主义价值理念与社会主义共同理想之价值理念的对立、现代社会不平衡运行机制与社会主义制度对社会成员共同富裕、共同发展的社会承诺的背反、经济社会发展与自然生息发展的矛盾,却对和谐社会建设起着很大的制约作用,必须采取综合性的有效对策,才能加快和谐社会建设步伐,并真正取得实效。     

Sweden and the issue of NATO membership: exploring a public opinion paradox

The past decade has seen substantial shifts in Swedish security policy and major change in the domestic debate about NATO. For the first time, all of the right-of-centre “alliance parties” are calling for a full NATO membership, and popular support for NATO has increased. Yet public opinion contains ambiguities and paradoxes that complicate the picture. At the same time as support for NATO has increased, the public is overwhelmingly for continued military non-alignment. Drawing on previous research, longitudinal data from national surveys, and other sources on defence and security issues, this article aims to increase our understanding of the development and change in Swedish public opinion on NATO. A key argument is that Erving Goffman’s theatre metaphor, combined with neo-institutional decoupling theory, to a large degree can help understand the public opinion paradox.