基于预计和评估结果融合的电子装备可靠性预测方法

分析了目前获得电子装备可靠性水平的可靠性预计和评估两种方法各自的优缺点,确立了融合两种方法所得结果以解决各自方法不足的思想.基于证据决策理论,以电子装备累积故障概率作为目标集,将可靠性预计结果和评估结果分别作为两批证据对目标集进行支持.利用信息融合方法,对两个利用不同源信息得出的预计结果和评估结果进行了融合,并得到了准确、实用的可靠性预测结果.最后以某型雷达为例进行实例分析,验证此方法的可行性.

Reliability Forecast Method of Electronic Equipment based on Fusion of Prediction and Assessment Result

This paper analyzed the advantage and disadvantage of reliability prediction and assessment then put forward a new method of fusing the result of the fomer two methods.Evidence and decision theory was applied here.Cumulative fault probability was as the target aggregate.Reliability prediction and assessment result were as evidence supporting the target aggregate.The more accuracy and scientific result was gained based on fusing the two results.An example was given and proved the feasible of the method at la...