Dangerous Demographics? The Effect of Urbanisation and Metropolisation on African Civil Wars, 1961–2010 |
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Authors: | Nicolai Schulz |
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Institution: | Department of International Development, London School of Economics and Political Science, 6-8th Floors, Connaught House, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK |
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Abstract: | Whether urbanisation promotes or inhibits the risk of civil war is disputed: while case studies usually support the former, quantitative investigations have found either the latter or no significant correlation at all. I argue that this contradiction is due to a conceptual and operational over-aggregation of urbanisation, ignoring its intrastate variation. I claim that a high relative concentration of the urban population and political, economic and social institutions in the largest city – so-called metropolisation – can increase both the motivation for and the feasibility of rebellion in a country. Triangulating case study evidence with a quantitative cross-national time series design, I show that metropolisation significantly and robustly increases the risk of governmental conflict in particular and hence civil war in general. |
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