突发重大疫情风险管理支撑方法研究【专题】

突发重大疫情后，科学的风险管理方法可为有效规避和控制风险提供有力支撑。在突发重大疫情风险管理中，风险识别是基础，风险评估是核心，风险控制是目的。本文系统梳理与分析了风险管理中的常用方法，包括风险识别中的现场勘查法、事故树分析法、过程回溯法、专家认证法和案例分析法等5种方法，风险评估中的风险坐标图法、关键风险指标法、蒙特卡罗法、因果关系法和综合评价法等5种方法，以及风险控制决策中的成本收益决策法、决策树法和损失期望值决策法等3种方法，并对每种方法如何在此次由新型冠状病毒引发的突发重大疫情中实践应用进行了举例说明，可为今后在应对突发重大疫情时进行科学风险识别、有效风险评估和精准风险控制决策提供借鉴与参考。

Research on the risk management methods of a sudden major epidemic

After the outbreak of a major epidemic, scientific risk management methods can provide strong support for effectively avoiding and controlling risks. Risk identification is the basis, risk assessment is the core and risk control is the purpose in these methods. This paper systematically analyzes the common methods in risk management, including five methods in risk identification, i. e. field investigation method, fault tree analysis method, process backtracking method, expert certification method, case analysis method; five methods in risk assessment, i. e. risk coordinate diagram method, key risk index method, Monte Carlo method, causal relationship method, comprehensive evaluation method; and three methods in risk control decision making, i. e. cost benefit decision method, decision tree method, loss expectation decision method. It also illustrates how each method is applied to the major epidemic of COVID-19. It can provide reference for future scientific risk identification, effective risk assessment and precise risk control decision in dealing with the outbreak of a major epidemic.