Inference on a future reliability parameter with the weibull process model

An inferential procedure is presented which provides confidence intervals for a future reliability parameter when reliability growth testing is only partially completed. Hypothesis tests based on this method are uniformly most powerful unbiased. These results are applicable if (1) the system failure rate can be modeled as the intensity function of a Weibull process and (2) efforts to improve reliability are assumed to continue at a steady rate throughout the intervening period of testing. The usefulness of this methodology is illustrated by evaluating the risk of not reaching some future reliability milestone. If such risk is unacceptably high, program management may have time to identify problem areas and take corrective action before testing has ended. As a consequence, a more reliable system may be developed without incurring overruns in the scheduling or cost of the development program.