装备战损量的兰彻斯特方程预计方法*

针对装备战损量预计这一未来作战装备保障必须解决的核心问题,运用兰彻斯特方程探讨解决途径。从分析影响装备战损的因素出发,综合讨论目前预计装备战损量的方法,提出基于指数多元兰彻斯特方程的装备战损量预计模型和模型中毁伤能力系数的确定方法,得到了装备战损量的兰彻斯特方程预计方法,并举例验证。该方法将经验计算与模拟计算相结合,用较简单的确定性解析方程描述所考虑因素对装备战损量的客观约束关系,较好地满足了未来信息化条件下作战装备战损量预计的需要。

Estimation of Equipment Damage in Warfare Based on Lanchester Equation

For equipment support in the future warfare,the estimation of the equipment damage in warfare is the nuclear problem. Aimed at this,lanchester equation is used to solve it. Analyzing the factors that affect the equipment damage,it discusses synthetically the current methods to estimate the quantity of equipment damage,and brings forward its estimation model and the confirmation method of damage coefficient that based on the exponential plurality lanchester equation. It also finds out the estimation method on Lanchester Equation and validated with an example. This method combined the experience calculation with the analog calculation,uses comparatively simple determinacy resolution equation,and describes the external restricted relation that the considered factors acted on the equipment damage in warfare. It meets the needs for the future informational war.