基于事故树和贝叶斯的军民航飞行冲突风险研究

为充分了解当前军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候的成因,并对其发生原因进行有重点的预防和对事件发生概率的精确预测,首先建立事故树模型,对其原因进行分析;总结导致其发生的基本事件,计算事故树模型的最小割集和各个基本事件的结构重要度;其次对军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候的发生概率进行合理的取值,得出基本事件的概率重要度,指出基本事件发生概率对顶事件发生概率的影响;最后构建军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候贝叶斯网络模型,计算中间事件的条件概率和顶事件发生概率,并与实际结果进行对比,验证方法可行性。

Risk Analysis of Civil Aviation and Military Flight Conflict Based on Fault Tree and Bayesian

In order to fully understand the causes of the civil aviation and military flight conflict and near-miss potential accident,and its causes are focused prevention and probability of accurate prediction of events.first,a fault tree model has been set up to analyze the likely causes that may lead to the civil aviation and military flight conflict and near-miss potential accident,summarized the basic events which lead to the top events.The minimum cut sets and structure importance of basic events have been worked out.Then,the basic events probability assignment reasonably.It is concluded that the structure of the basic events importance,based on this,the probability of such basic events affect the occurrence probability of the top event hace been pointed out.In the end,the Bayesian Network diagram is also mapped out,the probability and the probability of the top middle events are calanlated,as well compared with monitoring results,it has proved the feasibility of the method.