AID,Policy and Peace: Reducing the risks of civil conflict |
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| Authors: | Paul Collier Anke Hoeffler |
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| Institution: | 1. World Bank , 1818 H Street, N.W., MSN MC3-304, Washington, D.C. , 20433;2. Centre for the Study of African Economies , Oxford University and International Peace Research Institute , Oslo, 21 Winchester Road, Oxford , OX2 6NA , U.K. |
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| Abstract: | We analyze theoretically and empirically the effects of economic policy and the receipt of foreign aid on the risk of civil war. We find that aid and policy do not have direct effects upon conflict risk. However, both directly affect the growth rate and the extent of dependence upon primary commodity exports, and these in turn affect the risk of conflict. Simulating the effect of a package of policy reform and increased aid on the average aid recipient country, we find that after five years the risk of conflict is reduced by nearly 30%. |
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| Keywords: | Civil Wars Foreign Aid Economic Growth Primary Commodity Exports Zaire Policy Reform |
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