基于D-S证据理论的技术成熟度评估关键技术识别方法研究

针对技术成熟度评估中识别关键技术这一多属性群决策问题，提出了采用证据理论的一种新方法，解决了由于专家意见具有发散性和冲突性而导致的意见难以合成的问题．通过引入和分析不确定度的概念和含义，给出新的不确定度的计算方法，有效地解决了评价中的证据冲突问题．最后通过一个算例给出了应用的步骤和方法．

Research on Identification Method of Critical Technology Elements for Technology Readiness Assessments Based on DemPster-Shafer Evidence Theory

In regard to the identification of critical technology for technology readiness assess- ments being multiple-attribute decision-making,this article presents a new method which adopts evidence theory. The method solves the difficulty of synthesizing multiple opinions that are di- verging and conflicting. By introducing and analysing a new concept called＂uncertainty degree＂, and presenting a new method to calculate the value of the＂uncertainty degree＂,it has effectively solved the evidence conflict problem in evaluation. Finally, the article presents the method and steps of application by the calculation of a typical case.