基于BER和CTMC的航天器发射组织过程可靠度模型

在航天器发射工程中,存在组织过程可靠性评估难以量化的问题。基于航天器发射组织过程的时间特性呈现多个子过程并发执行且子过程具有Markov性和齐次性的特点,使用连续时间Markov链(CTMC)建立多吸收态的组织过程可靠度模型,利用互模拟等价关系(BER)简化组织过程的状态空间,并进一步给出各种状态转移率和组织过程可靠度计算方法。最后,通过数据分析说明模型在航天器发射工程进度计划评估中的作用和意义。

Scheduler reliability model of spacecraft launch based on BER and CTMC

In spacecraft launch engineering, it is very difficult to quantify reliability of implementation processes. In terms of the peculiarities which the reliability of implementation process presents, such as many sub-processes having concurrency and every sub-process having the Markovian property and homogeneous, etc. this paper presents the model of implementation processes reliability with multi-absorbing state by utilizing the model of continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) , and simplifies the state space of the implementation processes reliability through the use of bisimulation equivalence relation, moreover, the calculation method for various states transition rate and implementation processes reliability is also given. Finally,the simulation case by engineering data explains role and significance of the model in the assessment schedule of spacecraft launch engineering.