多准则下反导作战单、多遭遇点预测模型

整个反导射击过程可以简单看作一个基于预测的遭遇点起始的,不断重复、修正的过程。分析遭遇点预测的时间和空间前提,并给出遭遇点预测的3个基本准则;在多准则下建立了单遭遇点预测模型,给出了模型公式中未知量的转化方法;分射击-观察-射击和射击-射击两种情况建立了多准则下多遭遇点预测和优化模型,并给出了拦截弹最晚发射时间的计算方法;就观察时机对遭遇点预测的影响进行了分析与建模。部分研究属于探索性的研究,相关结论对指控模型开发和实施连续反导,从方法和作战理念方面提供了一些参考。

Multi-criteria Forecast Models of Antimissile Single/Multiple Impact Points

The whole antimissile process can be viewed as an iteratively process based on Impact Points Forecasting (IPF) which showed that IPF is particularly important for antimissile battle. This paper mainly focused on models to forecast antimissile single/multiple impact points, firstly analyzed the time-space requirements for IPF, and then proposed 3 forecasting criterions. Secondly we established the antimissile single IPF model at 3 criterions, and then tried to change the unknown variables of the model into values which radar can measure. Thirdly, for shoot-look-shoot scenario and shoot-shoot scenario we gave antimissile multiple impact points forecasting and optimization model at 3 criterions, and then discussed the calculating method of latest launch time. At the end of this paper, we analyzed and modeled the impact of different look occasion during IPF process. Partial theories and methods in this paper was exploratory research, related conclusions made in this paper may be benefits for antimissile sustained shooting decision making.