小子样条件下航天轴承性能可靠性建模与评估

航天油润滑轴承可靠性具有小子样、无失效数据特点,即使采用性能可靠性方法进行建模与分析,仍存在性能数据不足问题。提出小子样条件下航天轴承性能可靠性分析的多层贝叶斯模型及模型求解方法。通过失效分析,建立轴承性能退化过程模型。利用自助法、试验数据、物理模型和专家经验等确定Bayes验前分布,并采用MCMC方法解决Bayes计算问题。实例分析表明,该方法具有较好的适用性,是解决小子样条件下长寿命产品可靠性建模与评估问题的一种有效途径。

Performance Reliability Modeling and Estimation for Space Bearing under Small Sample Circumstance

There are small sample and zero failure characteristics in space bearing reliability modeling and analysis.Although performance reliability method may be available,insufficient performance data are still impediments.In the paper,a hierarchy Bayes modeling and analysis method is presented to solve the difficulties under small sample circumstance.Based on failure mechanism analysis,a performance degradation model is built at first.Then multiple methods and information including bootstrap method,experiment dat...