波浪作用下水下航行体出水成功概率预报

为了实现实测波浪作用下水下航行体出水成功概率预报,为潜艇作战提供一种水下发射的快速预报方法,基于边界元方法建立了水下航行体出水姿态计算模型,对不同波浪条件下水下航行体出水姿态参数进行了计算。同时,将不同波浪条件下的出水姿态参数进行集成,形成了规则波浪数据库。以渤海湾某时间段的实测海况作为发射环境,建立符合瑞利分布的波高概率分布模型,将尾部触水俯仰角作为判定条件,对实测波浪下水下航行体出水成功概率进行预报。计算结果表明,在考虑最恶劣工况下,相对于静水条件下的出水俯仰角偏差随着波高的增加而减小；相同波高下,受到出水相位的影响,出水俯仰角偏差呈余弦变化规律。该预报方法对于潜艇作战判定发射时机具有一定参考价值,为水下发射的成功概率预报提供参考。

Prediction of probability of successful water-exit for underwater vehicles under wave action

In order to realize prediction of probability of successful water-exit for underwater vehicles under measured wave action and provide a rapid prediction method of underwater launch for submarine operations, the calculation model of water-exit attitude parameters of the underwater vehicle was established on the basis of the boundary element method. The water-exit attitude parameters of underwater vehicles under different wave conditions were calculated. Meanwhile, the water-exit attitude parameters under different wave conditions were integrated to form a regular wave database. The measured sea conditions in a certain period of time in the Bohai Bay were used as the launch environment, and a wave height probability distribution model conforming to the Rayleigh distribution was established. The pitch angle of the tail touching water was taken as the judging condition to realize the prediction of probability of successful water-exit for underwater vehicles under measured wave action. The calculation results show that, considering the worst conditions, the deviation of the water-exit pitch angle relative to the static water condition decreases with the increase of the wave height; under the same wave height, the deviation of the water-exit pitch angle shows a cosine variation law due to the influence of water-exit phase. The prediction method has certain reference value for submarine combat to determine the launch timing and provides a reference for the successful probability of underwater launch.