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The Tacit Evolution of Coordination and Strategic Outcomes in Highly Fragmented Insurgencies: Evidence from the Soviet War in Afghanistan
Authors:Eric Jardine
Institution:PhD Candidate, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University , Ottawa , Canada
Abstract:Highly fragmented insurgencies often lack explicit coordination mechanisms such as plans, direct means of communication, or hierarchical organization. Many such insurgencies nevertheless obtain a high degree of coordination that produces strategic-level effects. This article presents a theory of how coordination can emerge tacitly in highly fragmented insurgencies, and how this can produce strategic-level effects. Strategic effects emerge through a combination of complementary and supplementary tactical-level actions between commonly positioned insurgent groups. The theory is then tested again evidence from the Soviet–Afghan War. The evidence presented shows that some of the Mujahidin's strategic-level effectiveness was produced through tacit coordination.
Keywords:Fragmented Insurgencies  Strategic Outcomes  Tacit Coordination  Afghanistan  Mujahidin  Rural-urban Cleavage
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