作战油料需求预计不确定性因素及误差分析

当前各种油料需求预计单纯地追求表面精确而忽视实有误差,重静止轻动态,脱离了作战保障实际。从技术、勤务和战术结合的层面,将油料需求预计不确定性因素归结为油料消耗标准本身、计划与实际运用差异、影响油耗的自然因素考虑不同、作战任务理解判断差别四点,并对各自的误差范围进行了粗略分析。提出的不确定性因素及误差范围界定,有助于引发人们对作战油料需求预计新的思考,提高油料勤务理论研究和实践能力水平。

The Analysis of Uncertainty Factors and Error Influencing Operational POL Demand Forecasting

At the present time,all kinds of POL demand forecasting go in for skin-deep precision while neglect essential error,and think much of stillness but despise development,so they escape from the fact of operational support.From the levels of combining technology,service and tactics,The authors sum up the uncertainty factors that influence POL demand forecasting as four aspects—POL consumption standard itself,difference of the plan and practice,different thoughts about natural factors that influence POL consumption,and discrimination of comprehension or judgment to the mission-of which the error scope analysis is carried on roughly.The uncertainty factors and error scope advanced can guide people to the new thinking of the POL demand forecasting,and raise the level of researches on POL service theory and practice ability.