基于层次分析法的军队油料消耗组合预测模型

在军队油料消耗预测中以直线趋势外推预测法、季节指数预测法和灰色预测法构成组合预测模型，以此为基础引入层次分析法来确定各自权重，按各项预测的重要程度求出组合预测结果。组合预测结果精度较高，并且通过对该组合预测模型中的判断矩阵灵活调整，从而可得到一组适合对应单位的油料消耗组合预测权系数，具有良好通用性，在部队中具有较好的推广价值。

Study on the Combined Forecasting Method in the Petrol-oil and Lubricants Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

The forecasting method,which is combined with extrapolation of the beeline trend forecasting model,season exponential forecasting model and grey forecasting model,is adopted in petrol-oil and lubricants(POL) consumption.Based on it,analytic hierarchy process(AHP) is presented to determine the weight of the combined model evaluation indicators.The combined forecasting result will be calculated according to the weight of each forecasting model.The combined forecasting result is more precise,the weight coeffic...