台风浪过程对空中飞行器生存能力的影响分析

为了分析台风浪对飞行器生存能力的影响,以CCMP风场驱动WW3海浪模式,对发生在2008年9月的台风"黑格比"所致的台风浪进行数值模拟,并就台风浪对导弹等飞行器击水概率的影响进行计算分析。研究发现:以CCMP风场作为WW3模式的驱动场,对发生在中国海的台风浪进行数值模拟是可行的,模拟的海浪数据接近海浪浮标观测数据;击水概率大值区主要分布于台风的大浪区,当飞行器的飞行高度为12m时,击水概率基本在15%以上,近台风中心更是高达26%～30%,台风大浪区的外围的击水概率则基本都在10%以下;当导弹飞行高度为15m时,击水概率基本只有12m时的一半;无论飞行高度为12m还是15m,击水概率的大值区均集中分布于该台风行进方向的右半圆。击水概率的高值中心并不位于台风中心,这应该是由于台风中心存在一低风速的台风眼造成的。该研究为提高掠海飞行器的生存能力提供参考。

Ditching Probability Analysis Caused by Typhoon Wave

In this paper, the typhoon wave field of the China Sea in September 2008 was simulated with WW3 wave model, by using CCMP wind field as driving field. Then the impact of typhoon wave on ditching probability of sea skimming flying vehicle was calculated. Result showed that (1) The simulated wave data has good agreement with the observational data, WW3 mode can depicts the three typhoons during the October 2009 occurred in China's coastal waters well. (2) When the flying height of 10m, ditching probability in big wave area up to 20%, even more than 30%, when the flying height of 12m, ditching probability significantly lower, when the flying height of 15m, ditching probability is greatly reduced, only about 10m height, one tenth.