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评定舰炮武器系统可靠性指标MTBF的Bayes方法
引用本文:冷述振.评定舰炮武器系统可靠性指标MTBF的Bayes方法[J].指挥控制与仿真,2011,33(6).
作者姓名:冷述振
作者单位:解放军91851部队,辽宁葫芦岛,125001
摘    要:为解决目前舰炮武器系统可靠性试验时间长、样本量小、双方风险高的实际问题,提出了基于验前信息评定舰炮武器系统可靠性MTBF的Bayes方法,充分挖掘了验前信息资源,有效缩短了试验时间,经仿真计算表明,在同等现场试验条件下,采用该方法可大幅降低可靠性试验双方风险。

关 键 词:MTBF  Bayes方法  验后加权概率比  风险
收稿时间:8/7/2011 4:59:16 PM
修稿时间:9/24/2011 9:39:04 AM

The Bayes Method on Assessing the MTBF of Naval Gun Weapon System
LENG Shu-zheng.The Bayes Method on Assessing the MTBF of Naval Gun Weapon System[J].Command Control & Simulation,2011,33(6).
Authors:LENG Shu-zheng
Institution:92941 Troops
Abstract:To resolving these real problems of test time being long,sample sizes being small and the risk of both sides being high,a new Bayes method assessing MTBF based on prior information is put forward . The method rootls well prior information and can shorten efficiently test time.The result of simulation calculation shows the method can reduce the risk of both sides under the same condition of locale.
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