基于分形理论的目标航路预测

电磁干扰条件下解决断续航路预测问题对防空兵有效抗击空中目标至关重要。针对包络灰预测方法预测精度较低和Verhulst灰色预测模型计算过程复杂的情况,提出了预测航路的分形方法。在分形理论的基础上,研究了其用于目标断续航路预测的基本思路,建立了基于分形的目标航路预测模型,并对模型进行了求解。最后,利用建立的分形模型对雷达丢失目标后的目标航路进行了预测,通过实例体现了分形方法在用于航路预测时的准确性、灵活性和易实现等特点。结果表明,用该法对断续目标航路的预测具有一定的借鉴意义。

Prediction for Target Air Route Based on the Fractal Theory

It is critical important to air defense forces fight against aerial targets effectively how to solve the problem of intermittent air route forecast under the conditions of EMI. Targeting such problems as low prediction accuracy of envelope gray prediction method and complicated calculation process of Verhulst gray prediction model, this paper puts forward the method of fractal. On the basis of an introduction to Fractal Theory and the presentation of how to forecast intermittent air route of target by using it, a Fractal Theory model to forecast the target air route was built up, together with the solution to it. Then the prediction about the air route which be lost by radar is conducted according to this model, and the example is given to explain how accurate, flexible and realizable the fractal method is when used to forecast. Thus it is helpful to forecast intermittent air route of target by this way.