| 基于备件需求预测的两步法理论? |
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| 引用本文： | 任喜,赵建军,王毅,张晓斐.基于备件需求预测的两步法理论?[J].指挥控制与仿真,2014,36(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 任喜 赵建军 王毅 张晓斐 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 海军航空工程学院,山东 烟台,264001
2. 海军92635部队,山东 青岛,266041 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（NO.60478053） |
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| 摘 要： | 在对备件需求时间序列研究的基础上，结合指数平滑法和Croston法的特点，分析了指数平滑法与两步法的原理，通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的研究，得到两步法是指数平滑法的一般形式的结论，为两步法的进一步研究提供一定的理论支撑。
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| 关 键 词： | 指数平滑法 Croston法 两步法 备件预测 对比分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 5/9/2014 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 7/9/2014 12:00:00 AM |
Theoretical Studies of Spare parts Demand Forecasting based on Two-step method |
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| REN Xi
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ZHAO Jianjun
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WANG Yi
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ZHANG Xiaofei.Theoretical Studies of Spare parts Demand Forecasting based on Two-step method[J].Command Control & Simulation,2014,36(6). |
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| Authors: | REN Xi ZHAO Jianjun WANG Yi ZHANG Xiaofei |
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| Institution: | Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University |
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| Abstract: | Exponential smoothing method and Croston method are introduced, the principle of exponential smoothing method and Croston method are analyzed. Combined with the problem of demand forecasting of spare parts, through the contract of variance between exponential smoothing method and two-step method, we can get a conclusion: two-step method has a better robustness than exponential smoothing method, and provide a theoretical basis for further study for two-step method |
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| Keywords: | exponential smoothing method Croston method two-step method demand forecasting compare analysis |
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