基于模糊理论的武器系统可靠性分析和评价

武器系统可靠性是指在规定条件下和规定时间内完成规定功能的能力。传统的可靠性计算方法是基于概率论的,其失效概率通常应根据第一手的数据。然而,实际上不可能收集到足够的数据,一般是依靠专家的经验来判断估计,这类判断通常与模糊性密切相关。本文基于可靠性理论和模糊数学的原则和方法,建立了一套计算串联系统和并联系统的模糊可靠度的计算公式。应用模糊数对武器装备系统单元可靠性予以模糊评价,并采用模糊可靠性计算模型,对武器系统可靠性进行模糊分析和计算。通过对一高炮武器系统的应用分析,证明了该方法的可行性。

Weapon System Reliability Analysis and Appraisal Based on Fuzzy Theory

Reliability is the weapon's ability to perform its specified functions under the stated conditions for a given period of time.The conventional reliability analysis methods are based on the probability theory.Usually,the failure probability should be estimated from a large amount data.In practice,however,it is not likely to collect enough immediate data.Therefore,the failure probability is often estimated by their experienced judgement of experts.The judgement is closely related to the fuzziness.In this paper,based on the reliability theory and using fuzzy principle and method to try to establish sets of formulate to calculate the fuzzy reliability for the series system and parallel system.The reliability of parts of weapon system are described in fuzzy numbers and applying models of fuzzy reliability of system to calculating weapon system reliability,the fuzzy reliability of the weapon system is analysed and evaluated.The practical calculation of an antiaircraft gun shows the model is feasible.