| 灰色神经网络的鱼雷经济寿命预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 梁庆卫,赵民全,杨璞.灰色神经网络的鱼雷经济寿命预测[J].火力与指挥控制,2011,36(10). |
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| 作者姓名： | 梁庆卫 赵民全 杨璞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西北工业大学航海学院,西安,710072
2. 西北工业大学航海学院,西安710072;解放军92785部队,河北秦皇岛066200 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部博士点基金资助项目(200806991022) |
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| 摘 要： | 为减少军费开支、降低鱼雷全寿命费用,从经济性角度提出了鱼雷最佳服役年限模型。利用灰色等维新息GM(1,1)模型对鱼雷年度使用维修费用进行预测;采用分组的思想将原始数据分为多组,采用神经网络对灰色模型的预测残差进行修正,以提高预测精度。通过实际算例预测了鱼雷经济寿命,从而证明了模型的实际应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 鱼雷 使用维修费用 GM(1 1)模型 BP神经网络 预测 |
The Forecast of Economic Life for Torpedo Based on Grey Neural Network Model |
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| LIANG Qing-wei,ZHAO Min-quan,YANG Pu.The Forecast of Economic Life for Torpedo Based on Grey Neural Network Model[J].Fire Control & Command Control,2011,36(10). |
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| Authors: | LIANG Qing-wei ZHAO Min-quan YANG Pu |
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| Institution: | LIANG Qing-wei1,ZHAO Min-quan1,2,YANG Pu1(1.College of Marine,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710072,China,2.Unit 92785 of the PLA,Qinhuangdao 066200,China) |
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| Abstract: | To reduce the military expenses expenditure,forecast the torpedo economic life,we propose a model about the best service of torpedo from economic perspective.Forecasting the data of exponential use-maintenance cost using metabolism GM(1,1) model of the grey system theory.The data was divided into several groups,in order to improve the prediction precision,predict residual was modified by using neural network.Finally it is verified that the method is reasonable by an example. |
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| Keywords: | torpedo maintaining cost metabolism GM(1 1) model BP neural network forecasting |
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