导弹武器系统研制费用估算方法

针对导弹武器系统研制费用相关数据样本量少,变量之间存在严重共线性等问题,提出了一种基于偏最小二乘法的研制费用估算模型。引入库克距离对原始数据进行识别,并剔除异常数据,采用灰色关联度分析法选取相关度高的自变量,提高模型准确性和稳定性。利用偏最小二乘法进行数据拟合,估算出导弹武器系统的研制费用。应用算例的计算结果表明,该方法建立的研制费用估算模型拟合度良好,计算误差在8%以内。

Method of Development Cost Forecasting for Missile Weapon System

Due to the mall samples size,and multicollinearity relationship of variables of the missile weapon system development cost. the missile cost estimation model is established based on the partial least regression. Cook distance is used to recognition of abnormal data,and the grey relation grade theory is used to elect independent variable that has highly degree of correlation for improve the accuracy and stability of model. Finally the partial least regression is used to fitting data for estimate development cost of missile weapon system. The results show that the model fit is fairly good,and the fit error is less than 8%.