灰色灾变与回归分析法的航空装备不安全事件预测

为提高航空装备不安全事件的预测水平,减少事故造成的人员和财产损失,将灰色灾变与回归分析方法有机结合,提出一种航空装备不安全事件的组合预测方法。该方法先从数据中找出灾变点(灾变发生的日期),通过建立这些灾变点的灰色灾变模型预测未来灾变点,再对这些灾变点上的值构建灰色预测模型,计算出未来灾变点的灾变值;而对于非灾变点,可建立合适的回归分析模型进行预测。为验证其可行性,在某飞行训练基地的航空装备不安全事件频数的数据基础上,建立了灰色灾变回归组合预测模型,结果表明,模型对2001年~2004年预测的相对误差平均控制在6.87%以内,所建立的组合模型,能够比较客观地反映航空装备安全的未来实际状况。

Prediction of Aviation Equipment Unsafe Events Based on Grey Catastrophe and Regression Analysis

To improve the prediction of aviation equipment unsafe events for reduction of casualties and property losses,a combination prediction method of aviation equipment unsafe events based on grey catastrophe and regression analysis method is proposed. In the method,the catastrophe points (date) are first found from original unsafe events data to establish the grey catastrophe model for predicting the future catastrophe points,and then the grey prediction model for these catastrophe points is built to calculate the catastrophe value corresponding to future catastrophe points. For non-catastrophe points, the appropriate regression analysis model needs to be established. To validate its feasibility,on the basis of aviation equipment unsafe events frequency data of an flight training base,the grey catastrophe and regression analysis combination model is established. The result shows that the average relative error of prediction of model during 2001 to 2004 is 6.87 %. The built model can reflect the future fact of aviation equipment safety.