基于Sobol’法的歼击机需求影响因素灵敏度分析

针对歼击机需求确定影响因素众多、传统分析方法仅能进行定性分析的问题,提出了基于Sobol’法的歼击机需求影响因素灵敏度分析方法。在构建了歼击机需求确定模型的基础上,提出了基于Sobol’法的歼击机需求确定模型参数灵敏度分析步骤,并结合算例验证了方法的可行性和有效性。分析结果表明:我方拟夺取空中优势等级的概率、敌方出动歼击机的数量和敌我双方歼击机作战效能的比值对歼击机需求的影响较大,战术运用系数、协同作战系数和管理优劣系数的影响微乎其微。

Sensitivity Analysis on Influencing Factors of Fighter’s Demand Based on Sobol’Method

Aiming at the problem of numerous influencing factors existing in fighter’s demand calculation and traditional analysis method can only conduct qualitative analysis,a sensitivity analysis method on influencing factors of fighter’s demand based on Sobol’method is proposed. Based on the building of fighter’s demand calculation model,the sensitivity analysis procedure of fighter’s demand calculation model parameter based on Sobol’method is proposed,and a numerical example is given to verify the feasibility and validity of this method. The result shows that the probability we intend to despoil the air superiority level,the fighter number of our enemy and the combat effectiveness of both fighters have an obvious effect on our fighter’s demand. At the same time,the coefficient of tactics application, cooperative combat and management quality have very little effect on our fighter’s demand.