用组合模型预测备件消耗量

科学预测备件消耗是有效实施备件保障各项工作的基础。结合指数平滑法及灰色模型的特点,建立组合模型,解决了小样本条件下备件的消耗预测问题。实例分析表明,组合模型比单项模型具有更高的预测精度。

A Combined Model to Prediction Spare Parts Consumption

Spare parts consumption prediction lays a foundation for spare parts support. This paper combines the exponential smoothing method with a grey model,and establishes a combinational model. The combinational model solves the problem of spare parts consumption prediction. The example indicates that the combinational model is much more accurate than a single model.