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指标融合和隐马尔可夫模型的舰船装备技术状态评估
引用本文:牛建钊,耿俊豹,魏曙寰,刘凌刚.指标融合和隐马尔可夫模型的舰船装备技术状态评估[J].火力与指挥控制,2016(11):85-89.
作者姓名:牛建钊  耿俊豹  魏曙寰  刘凌刚
作者单位:海军工程大学舰船动力工程军队重点实验室,武汉 430033;海军工程大学动力工程学院,武汉 430033
基金项目:国家部委基金(9140A27040215JB11434),中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2013T60921)
摘    要:科学合理的技术状态评估技术是保障舰船安全性和任务完好性的有效途径之一,针对目前舰船装备技术状态评估缺乏动态性以及评估指标过多的问题,构建舰船装备技术状态多指标融合模型,结合技术状态评估指标融合模型和隐马尔可夫模型所具有双随机性和严谨数学推理能力的特点,建立基于指标融合模型和隐马尔可夫模型的舰船装备技术状态动态评估模型。最后通过案例分析验证了所提出的方法能够有效体现技术状态评估中的动态性,为舰船装备技术状态评估提供新的途径。

关 键 词:舰船装备  多指标融合模型  技术状态  隐马尔可夫模型

Research on Technical Condition Evaluation of Ship Equipments Based on Index Fusion and Hidden Markov Model
Abstract:Scientific and reasonable technical condition evaluation is one of the effective ways to ensure the safety of a ship and its mission readiness. In view of the lack of dynamic performance and redundant evaluation indicators in the current technical condition evaluation of ship equipments,the multi-index fusion model of technical condition for warship equipments is constructed. Integrating the index fusion model of the technical condition evaluation and the characteristics of double randomicity and rigorous mathematical reasoning ability of hidden Markov model,a new dynamic technical condition evaluation model of warship equipment based on index fusion model and hidden Markov model is established. Finally,the case shows that the proposed method can effectively reflect the dynamic performance of the technical condition evaluation,which provides a new way to explore technical condition evaluation of ship equipments.
Keywords:ship equipments  multi-index fusion model  technical condition  hidden Markov model
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