小子样条件下巡航导弹的命中精度评估方法

针对巡航导弹定型试验发数少、验前试验信息源多的特点,提出小子样条件下,通过可信性检验分别得到每个验前信息源的可信度,在导弹落点偏差分布为正态-逆伽马分布的假设下,获得评估的验前分布参数,选择基于可信度的加权方法对多源验前信息进行融合,采用Bayes估计方法得到命中精度。最后结合实例进行仿真,说明了该方法较传统的Bayes方法更稳健,很适合巡航导弹命中精度的评估。

A Method of Accuracy Assessment of the Cruise Missile Under Small Sample Conditions

A method under small sample conditions and the large number prior information is proposed for the Cruise Missile.That is,the credibility of each prior information source is acquired by consistent test,and the parameters of distribution are obtained on the assumption that the deviation of the missile fall points is normal-inverse gamma.Then using the weighted method based on credibility the information fusion of multiple sources is done.Therefore,the accuracy can be calculated.Finally,The simulation shows that the method proposed in this paper is more robust than the normal Bayes method,so it can be used to assess the accuracy of the Cruise Missile.