| 基于不确定性理论的研制技术风险评估方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 迟宝山,李永泰.基于不确定性理论的研制技术风险评估方法研究[J].装甲兵工程学院学报,2005,19(4):43-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 迟宝山 李永泰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 装甲兵工程学院,训练部,北京,100072
2. 装甲兵工程学院,机械工程系,北京,100072 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了装备研制技术风险的含义，根据技术风险的特点建立了评价技术风险的指标体系。在技术风险度量中引入不确定性理论的概念，并建立了基于不确定性的技术风险的度量方法，对综合技术风险进行评价。最后通过实例验证了综合评价方法的可用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 装备研制 技术风险 不确定理论 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-1497(2005)04-0043-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年10月26 |
Study on the R&D Technology Risk Assessment Based on the Uncertainty Theory |
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| CHI Bao-shan,LI Yong-tai.Study on the R&D Technology Risk Assessment Based on the Uncertainty Theory[J].Journal of Armored Force Engineering Institute,2005,19(4):43-46. |
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| Authors: | CHI Bao-shan LI Yong-tai |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the meaning of equipment R&D technology risk is analyzed and the appraisal technology risk index system is established according to the characteristics of the technology risk. In this paper, the uncertainty theory is introduced in the technical risk measuring and the measuring method of technology risk is established based on the uncertainty theory to appraise the comprehensive technological risk. Finally the usabdity of the comprehensive appraisal method is verified through actual examples. |
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| Keywords: | equipment R&D technology risk uncertainty theory |
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