A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation |
| |
| Authors: | Bahman Rostami‐Tabar Mohamed Zied Babai Aris Syntetos Yves Ducq |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. University Bordeaux, IMS, UMR 5218, , F‐33400 Talence, France;2. Kedge Business School, 680 cours de la Liberation, , 33400 Talence, France;3. Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, , CF10 3EU Cardiff, United Kingdom |
| |
| Abstract: | Earlier research on the effects of nonoverlapping temporal aggregation on demand forecasting showed the benefits associated with such an approach under a stationary AR(1) or MA(1) processes for decision making conducted at the disaggregate level. The first objective of this note is to extend those important results by considering a more general underlying demand process. The second objective is to assess the conditions under which aggregation may be a preferable approach for improving decision making at the aggregate level as well. We confirm the validity of previous results under more general conditions, and we show the increased benefit resulting from forecasting by temporal aggregation at lower frequency time units. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 489–500, 2014 |
| |
| Keywords: | demand forecasting temporal aggregation stationary processes single exponential smoothing |
|
|
