一种对陆攻击飞行器命中精度概率圆检验方法

针对对陆攻击飞行器命中精度假设检验问题,尤其是不同风干扰条件下的命中精度检验问题,提出了一种不同母体条件下的命中精度概率圆序贯检验方法。通过分析试验方案与试验双方风险之间的关系,揭示了基于序贯的命中精度概率圆检验方法内涵,给出了试验子样n、检验门限m*和概率圆半径R的设计策略,建立了概率圆检验方法试验流程。提出基于验前误差分配的概率圆检验方法来解决不同风速影响落点偏差的精度折合问题,有效地回避了精度折合工作带来的计算模型复杂性和结果不确定性。利用实际飞行试验结果验证了命中精度概率圆检验方法的可行性,该方法简洁易行,具有非常良好的工程实践价值。     

广义计数型序贯抽样检验

针对计数型产品的可靠性验证试验,提出了一种广义计数型序贯抽样检验方案,该检验方案实际上是经典序贯概率似然比检验的推广.通过构造马尔可夫链模型,研究了广义计数型序贯抽样检验方案的风险计算方法.在此基础上,给出了广义序贯抽样检验方案的制定程序.最后,通过实例分析表明:广义序贯抽样检验方案比国际标准IEC1123所推荐的方案...     

一种改进的指数型序贯抽样检验方法

针对指数型产品的可靠性验收问题,通过分析总结两次序贯概率比检验和序贯网图检验的思想,提出了一种改进的序贯抽样检验方法。通过构造验收风险的马尔可夫链模型,研究了改进的指数型序贯抽样检验方案的风险计算方法。在此基础上,给出了指数型序贯抽样检验方案的制定程序。实例分析表明:改进的指数型序贯抽样检验方案在保证截尾时间的条件下,明显降低了美军标MIL-STD-781C标准方案的验收风险,可以更好地满足双方的风险要求。     

子弹圆环内散布子母弹对圆目标的毁伤概率

为研究子弹圆环内均匀散布的情况子母弹对圆目标的毁伤概率,首先研究子弹散布范围覆盖圆目标的面积,然后用概率分析的方法推导出了子弹单圆环均匀散布下子母弹单发射及相关射击对圆目标的毁伤概率计算公式,并讨论了子弹多环均匀散布下子母弹毁伤概率的计算方法。算例表明子弹双圆环内均匀散布时,子母弹对圆目标的毁伤概率要略高于子弹单环对圆目标的毁伤概率。     

利用验前信息的一种序贯检验方法——序贯验后加权检验方法

序贯验后加权检验方法是Bayes 统计观点在假设检验中的运用。本文提出了该方法的一般理论,给出了当总体的分布参数具有验前信息时的序贯检验方法。文中确定了决策区的划分,同时讨论了序贯截尾方案,给出了检验中可能犯两类错误的概率的上界,并将一般理论应用于产品的可靠性检验和再入飞行器随机落点的精度鉴定。由于运用了验前信息,因此能有效地在少量试验之下进行统计假设检验。本文所提供的方法对于昂贵产品试验结果的统计评定具有普遍意义。     

基于搜索论的反舰导弹捕捉概率研究

反舰导弹已成为现代海战中的主要进攻武器,正确选择反舰导弹捕捉概率计算模型,对火控系统解算、指挥决策至关重要。针对传统捕捉概率计算方法存在的不足,根据搜索论的基本原理、反舰导弹自控终点分布函数、目标位置域函数、目标分布函数、导弹雷达扫描特征等,提出了基于搜索论的捕捉概率计算方法,确定了常见目标分布条件下的现在点射击捕捉概率计算模型,通过仿真验证了模型的正确性,并由仿真结果确定了敌舰高速规避条件下目标瞄准点选取模型。     

导弹落点精度的鉴定方法——概率圆方法

导弹的落点精度包括落点的准确度与密集度。对于子样很小的情况 ,分别鉴定准确度和密集度是有一定的难度。本文提出了采用概率圆的综合鉴定方法。当落入概率圆的导弹数大于等于要求的数时就接收 ,否则拒绝。文中给出了如何确定落入概率圆的导弹数 ,并且给出了该方法的风险。最后以仿真实例说明了方法的有效性。概率圆方法简便易行 ,便于工程应用。     

精度鉴定与试验决策系统

本文综合运用序贯分析方法和Ｂａｙｅｓ方法,提出用序贯Ｂａｙｅｓ决策进行战略导弹的精度鉴定和试验设计,序贯Ｂａｙｅｓ决策中的损失函数不仅考虑了决策损失,还考虑了试验费用,这样即可将鉴定方法与试验方法结合起来考虑,给出最佳鉴定方案及试验次数。     

不确定环境下无人机区域目标搜索及载荷参数影响

针对不确定环境下无人机区域搜索问题,建立了实时探测更新的搜索方法,提出了机载光电载荷参数优化配置策略。建立了基于二维离散网格的无人机区域搜索模型,采用概率地图描述目标信息的实时获取与更新;引入不确定度指标、目标网格的重访和网格探测次数控制,建立搜索目标函数;建立了基于粒子群算法的搜索路径滚动优化方法;通过对任务区域平均探测时间步数和误判概率的估计分析,建立了机载光电载荷参数优化配置策略。使用蒙特卡洛方法验证了区域搜索方法的有效性和光电载荷参数配置对搜索效率、误判概率的影响。     

导弹打击三角形目标命中概率计算方法

对目标的命中概率计算问题是导弹火力运用中的基本问题,而复杂面目标可以分解成多个三角形目标。以数值积分法为基础,利用圆覆盖函数的计算方法,推导了导弹打击三角形目标命中概率的计算公式,提出了利用高斯-勒让德积分法进行积分计算的方法,并通过算例证明,该计算方法在命中概率问题的求解中具有更高的可靠性和精度。算法可应用于计算任意多边形目标的命中概率计算问题,具有一定的通用性。     

Sequential and systematic sampling plans for the Markov‐dependent production process

Acceptance sampling plans are used to assess the quality of an ongoing production process, in addition to the lot acceptance. In this paper, we consider sampling inspection plans for monitoring the Markov‐dependent production process. We construct sequential plans that satisfy the usual probability requirements at acceptable quality level and rejectable quality level and, in addition, possess the minimum average sample number under semicurtailed inspection. As these plans result in large sample sizes, especially when the serial correlation is high, we suggest new plans called “systematic sampling plans.” The minimum average sample number systematic plans that satisfy the probability requirements are constructed. Our algorithm uses some simple recurrence relations to compute the required acceptance probabilities. The optimal systematic plans require much smaller sample sizes and acceptance numbers, compared to the sequential plans. However, they need larger production runs to make a decision. Tables for choosing appropriate sequential and systematic plans are provided. The problem of selecting the best systematic sampling plan is also addressed. The operating characteristic curves of some of the sequential and the systematic plans are compared, and are observed to be almost identical. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 451–467, 2001     

Optimum sequential search with discrete locations and random acceptance errors

Much work has been done in search theory; however, very little effort has occurred where an object's presence at a location can be accepted when no object is present there. The case analyzed is of this type. The number of locations is finite, a single object is stationary at one location, and only one location is observed each step of the search. The object's location has a known prior probability distribution. Also known are the conditional probability of acceptance given the object's absence (small) and the conditional probability of rejection given the object's presence (not too large); these Probabilities remain fixed for all searching and locations. The class of sequential search policies which terminate the search at the first acceptance is assumed. A single two-part optimization criterion is considered. The search sequence is found which (i) minimizes the probability of obtaining n rejections in the first n steps for all n, and (ii) maximizes the probability that the first acceptance occurs within the first n steps and occurs at the object's location for all n. The optimum sequential search policy specifies that the next location observed is one with the largest posterior probability of the object's presence (evaluated after each step from Bayes Rule) and that the object is at the first location where acceptance occurs. Placement at the first acceptance seems appropriate when the conditional probability of acceptance given the object's absence is sufficiently small. Search always terminates (with probability one). Optimum truncated sequential policies are also considered. Methods are given for evaluating some pertinent properties and for investigating the possibility that no object occurs at any location.     

An early-accept modification to the test plans of military standard 781C

This paper is concerned with the statistical test plans contained in Military Standard 781C, “Reliability Design Qualification and Production Acceptance Tests: Exponential Distribution” and the selection and use of these plans. Modifications to the fixed-length test plans of MIL-STD-781C are presented which allow early-accept decisions to be made without sacrificing statistical validity. The proposed plans differ from the probability ratio sequential tests in the Standard in that rejection is permitted only after a fixed number of failures have been observed.     

Optimal selection from a random sequence with observation errors

A form of sequential decision problem is introduced in which options are presented in sequence. with no recall of rejected options (as in the secretary problem), but in which the value of each option may only he inferred from experiments. Decisions have thus to be made concerning both the acceptance and rejection of each option and the degree of experimentation. General properties of the optimal policy are derived, and an algorithm is obtained for the solution in a special case. This special case suggests a heuristic rule for more general situations. the performance of which rule has been investigated by a Monte Carlo study.     

Double window acceptance sampling

We introduce the concept of a sequential double window procedure and compare the resulting acceptance test with both a fixed sample size method as well as with the Wald sequential probability ratio test. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

基于状态的检查与修理综合决策模型

分析了单部件系统退化过程的特点,建立了基于状态的检查与修理决策模型。该模型根据系统的当前状态来决定检查与修理,通过分析计算系统在一个更新周期内平均检查次数、预防性维修及修复性故障的概率,建立维修费用与检查问隔及预防性维修阈值的关系,以平均维修费用最小为目标,优化检查间隔及预防性维修阈值。最后运用Matlab对模型进行数值计算,结果表明,模型能有效地降低维修费用。     

射击效力近似计算中的等概率替代法初步研究

提出了近似计算单发命中概率的等概率替代法的思路 ,并给出射弹散布误差均值为零情况下的正方形目标与圆形目标之间的等概率替代数学模型     

应用径向基代理模型实现序列自适应再采样优化策略

针对径向基插值代理模型样本点预测误差为零时无法获得误差函数进行序列再采样优化的问题,将样本点分布约束引入序列再采样过程,利用潜在最优解加速收敛性,提出一种适用于径向基插值代理模型序列优化的再采样策略,该策略兼顾仿真模型的输出响应特性与样本点的空间分布特性。仿真结果表明,使用该再采样策略后,算法寻优效率和精度均优于传统基于代理模型的优化方法,在对最优解进行有效预测的同时,能显著减少原始模型计算次数。     

Interception probability simulation and analysis of salvo of two electromagnetic coil launched anti-torpedo torpedoes

Electromagnetic coil launch is an important branch of electromagnetic launch (EML) technology, which is suitable for launching anti-torpedo torpedo (ATT). This paper focuses on the EML parameters and the interception probability of the EML two ATTs salvo. Based on the launching model of a multi-stage coil launcher, the trajectory model of the ATT and the attacking torpedo, a calculation method for the EML two ATTs salvo parameters is proposed, with the conditions of capture and interception given reasonably. An adaptive particle swarm optimization (APSO) algorithm is proposed to calculate the optimal launching parameters, by designing the adaptive inertia weight and time-varying study factors. According to the analysis of the simulation with Monte Carlo method, EML will improve the interception probability effectively, and the interception probability is affected by the launching range. The results demonstrate good performance of the proposed APSO in calculating EML parameters for the two ATTs salvo in certain combat situation. Implications of these results are particular regarding the command and decision in the anti-torpedo combat.