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通过对空中兵力的合理编组,实现作战资源的优化配置是提升兵力作战效能的有效途径。针对现代空战编队对抗过程的特点,从战术企图和信息优势角度提出了编队目标威胁评估方法。以编队目标为研究对象从宏观上调配己方作战资源,提出了作战资源成本和兵力调度成本2种兵力编组成本,在此基础上建立了资源约束条件下的兵力编组优化模型,并采用改进PSO算法对模型进行求解。作战想定仿真结果表明兵力编组模型能够有效解决空战兵力分配问题。 相似文献
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通过对空中兵力的合理编组,实现作战资源的优化配置是提升兵力作战效能的有效途径。针对现代空战编队对抗过程的特点,从战术企图和信息优势角度提出了编队目标威胁评估方法。以编队目标为研究对象从宏观上调配己方作战资源,提出了作战资源成本和兵力调度成本2种兵力编组成本,在此基础上建立了资源约束条件下的兵力编组优化模型,并采用改进PSO算法对模型进行求解。作战想定仿真结果表明兵力编组模型能够有效解决空战兵力分配问题。 相似文献
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在协同空战中,快速正确的空战决策是己方战机少受敌方伤害并取得战争胜利的前提。目标与火力资源分配是决策过程的重要部分。多机空战与单机空战相比有明显的不同,不同之处是面临多个敌方目标,根据我方资源最优分配作战对象和火力,基于遗传算法实现了两种算法的有人无人目标与火力资源分配。仿真结果表明,带有毁伤概率门限的算法既节省火力资源又快速有效。 相似文献
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The defense establishments of all major powers are changing to reflect changes in the foundations of national security strategy and resource allocation. The authors believe economists should play an active role in formulating these changes and offer an orientation to the U.S. debate, presenting three major alternatives: the “Base Force” (Bush Administration), Mr. Aspin's Force “C,” and the “Low” Alternative (Prof. Kaufmann and Dr. Steinbruner). These alternatives are compared using first‐order measures of capabilities, budgets and risk. Budgetary estimates are based on newly‐developed analytical tools. 相似文献
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This paper investigates the multivariate Polya distribution (MPD) for application in combat models for which enemy targets must be randomly assigned to fighting units. Six sets of actual combat data motivate the allocation model. Scenarios include air‐to‐air combat, tank, and submarine warfare. Goodness of fit tests are derived which verify the validity of the MPD, and reinforce the notion that multinomial allocation is too simplistic for such combat models. Simulations to determine optimal allocations for minimal combat cost are applied in order to illustrate the role of the MPD in combat modeling. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons,Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 1–17, 2001 相似文献
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Some of the most active arms races are taking place between developed and less developed countries. The inability of less developed countries to compete financially, as well as technologically, with developed countries may be forcing the former to acquire terror weapons (TWP). The Iran–Iraq war in the 1980s and the events of 9/11 proved that the use of TWP is no longer a mere threat; there are several organizations and countries that will not hesitate to use them. This study develops a model of resource allocation in an arms race between a developed country that is characterized by state‐of‐the‐art technology and high GDP, and a less developed country whose technological capability and GDP are much lower. The model is used to predict the optimal mix of weapons of the two countries that are engaged in the arms race. Applying the model to the arms race between Israel and Syria demonstrates its use. 相似文献
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This paper develops and implements a methodology for quantifying defense conversion in Russian manufacturing in the early 1990s. A two‐sector, three‐good model is employed to analyze the flows of resources from military to non‐military uses and applied to firm‐level survey data under alternative definitions of military production and the MIC. An aggregation framework is constructed to estimate the total quantity and change in Russian military production, the latter decomposed into intrafirm and intersectoral resource reallocation and overall industrial decline. Although there is evidence of substantial decline in military production, the data show little reallocation to productive civilian uses, neither within the MIC nor to other manufacturing sectors. 相似文献
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在对装备需求论证资源需求分析的基础上,针对其基础性、超前性、秘密性、多样性及复杂性的特征,运用分面组配法将其分为知识资源、数据资源、模型资源、方法资源、任务资源等,并以作战任务、作战能力、装备性能数据为例对其进行了规范化描述。同时,提出了构建装备需求论证资源库的具体思路,包括资源获取、资源信息规范化描述、资源库功能需求分析、资源库的维护和应用等。 相似文献
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We address the problem of optimal decision‐making in conflicts based on Lanchester square law attrition model where a defending force needs to be partitioned optimally, and allocated to two different attacking forces of differing strengths and capabilities. We consider a resource allocation scheme called the Time Zero Allocation with Redistribution (TZAR) strategy, where allocation is followed by redistribution of defending forces, on the occurrence of certain decisive events. Unlike previous work on Lanchester attrition model based tactical decision‐making, which propose time sequential tactics through an optimal control approach, the present article focuses on obtaining simpler resource allocation tactics based on a static optimization framework, and demonstrates that the results obtained are similar to those obtained by the more complex dynamic optimal control solution. Complete solution for this strategy is obtained for optimal partitioning of resources of the defending forces. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008 相似文献
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由于决策个体控制战场作战平台资源实体,通过平台资源实体执行作战任务,作战平台资源实体在任务上的聚集导致决策个体间需要复杂的交互协作与交流,兵力编成需要为任务的执行创造良好的交互结构。基于任务执行的兵力编成包括两方面的内容:一是指控决策结点间的协作关系;二是指控决策结点间的指挥关系。本文基于决策个体在任务上的协作关系设计兵力编成的指挥关系,以最小化编成中总的协作工作负载为目标,并描述了编成指挥决策关系的生成过程,对生成过程的求解采用了优化协作树算法。 相似文献
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Thomas C. Bruneau 《Defense & Security Analysis》2018,34(4):345-364
ABSTRACTThe article argues that current conceptual approaches in civil-military relations are deeply flawed resulting in its irrelevance in analyzing major issues including war and the collapse of democracy. After highlighting major flaws in the work of the late Samuel Huntington and those who follow his approach, the article argues that other conceptual approaches, including Security Sector Reform, are also flawed, or in the case of the “military effectiveness” literature, largely irrelevant. In explaining the main causes of the flawed conceptual literature, the article highlights the absence of good data and challenges in methodology. While arguing that military forces are very unlikely to engage in armed combat, it highlights the roles and missions which in the world today are implanted by these forces. As it is virtually impossible to prove effectiveness of the armed forces in these roles and missions, the article proposes a conceptual approach based on requirements. 相似文献
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数学分析方法在军事行动计划中扮演着越来越显著的角色。对以兰彻斯特作战模型为基础的描述诸兵种合成作战的矩阵微分方程,以及由方程的控制矩阵和状态变量初值,在不解方程的情况下导出的战役优势参数进行了研究;以空战为例讨论了预测战役结局、辅助军事决策、优化兵力部署和规划火力分配等战役优势参数的主要应用;给出了对战役优势参数和数学模型的评价。 相似文献
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讨论了策略集清晰、支付值模糊的模糊双矩阵对策的一种求解方法,并以某型导弹混编群对抗ARM(反辐射导弹)及载机为案例进行研究,建立了基于模糊双矩阵对策的作战效能评估模型,研究结果对于双方资源分配,提高作战效能具有一定的军事应用价值。 相似文献
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美军航母战斗群空袭火力对地攻击效能分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
以美军航母战斗大队标准编成为例,简要分析了美军航母战斗群的空袭火力构成。进而分别建立了机载普通对地攻击弹药和巡航导弹、空地导弹对地面目标的毁伤能力的模型。然后以此为基础,从空袭兵器的突防概率、对目标的发现概率、对各类目标的毁伤概率和空袭某一目标所需的兵力4个方面,对航母战斗群空袭火力体系的对地攻击效能进行了深入研究,并建立相应的数学模型。最后根据在历次战争中得到的经验数据,对美军航母战斗群空袭火力对地攻击效能进行了计算,并分析了计算结果,为科学判断敌情提供了依据。 相似文献
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The article develops a theorem which shows that the Lanchester linear war equations are not in general equal to the Kolmogorov linear war equations. The latter are time‐consuming to solve, and speed is important when a large number of simulations must be run to examine a large parameter space. Run times are provided, where time is a scarce factor in warfare. Four time efficient approximations are presented in the form of ordinary differential equations for the expected sizes and variances of each group, and the covariance, accounting for reinforcement and withdrawal of forces. The approximations are compared with “exact” Monte Carlo simulations and empirics from the WWII Ardennes campaign. The band spanned out by plus versus minus the incremented standard deviations captures some of the scatter in the empirics, but not all. With stochastically varying combat effectiveness coefficients, a substantial part of the scatter in the empirics is contained. The model is used to forecast possible futures. The implications of increasing the combat effectiveness coefficient governing the size of the Allied force, and injecting reinforcement to the German force during the Campaign, are evaluated, with variance assessments. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005. 相似文献