模拟体系对抗价值链的网络同步模型

描述战斗毁伤"规模效应"的Lanchester模型默认作战体系内部是"完美的"。本文扬弃此假设,首次从作战体系内部"共识"涌现的视角提出了一个模拟体系对抗价值链的网络"同步效应"模型,研究了战场变化、个体/群体认知、自同步与对抗均衡等概念的网络拓扑和权值演化形式,并发现在对抗均衡条件下无标度网络具有"同步脆弱性"。     

基于控制环的作战网络对抗模型

战争的手段和用兵之道总是随着技术的发展而变化,借鉴网络中心战的思想,深入分析了分布式作战网络的生成机制,及其对抗行为的微观和宏观机制。在此基础上,针对信息时代由信息优势获得作战效能的本质特点,提出了控制环和行动节奏的概念,刻画不同对抗体系信息效能的差异;进而提出了作战网络的对抗模型和度量作战网络的效能指标。通过仿真实验分析,对比研究了不同网络结构(传统型、协同式和分布式)、不同攻击模式(随机打击、指控优先打击和度优先打击)对交战过程和结果的影响。     

基于作战势能比值的态势评估方法

作战态势评估是作战指挥的关键问题之一。引入势、作战势能及势比的概念,在数理战术学规范交战模式的基础上,综合考虑体系作战中实际战场情况对基本毁伤力和各种交战关系的影响,提出一种体系对抗背景下态势评估的新方法。     

基于体系对抗仿真的指挥自动化系统效能评估

指挥自动化系统的综合性能、作战保障能力和信息对抗能力是我军一体化联合作战效能评估的重要研究内容,依据C4ISR系统作战效能评估的需求,提出了基于战场实体的C4ISR体系对抗仿真评估系统总体结构,重点讨论了指挥自动化系统体系对抗环境下的作战效能评估框架、指标体系层次结构。对体系对抗效能评估系统的功能结构、仿真实现步骤、仿真结果分析作了深入的研究,并就拓展评估系统的应用范围作了一些设想。     

基于SDAE+Softmax模型的体系贡献率评估方法

战争就是交战双方作战体系之间的对抗.体系贡献率评估是体系建设和分析重点关注的问题,是对作战要素在作战体系中所发挥作用的一种度量.针对体系的复杂系统特性,构建SDAE+Softmax模型对体系效能涌现过程进行建模,模型描述了体系基础指标与任务指标之间的关系.提取Softmax分类器的分类概率相对值作为体系贡献率评估的综合特征指标,量化体系组分改变对体系效能的影响.基于SDAE+Softmax模型的评估方法,为体系贡献率评估提供了全新的思路,是对传统评估方法的突破.     

对抗模拟中作战分队Agent的建模设计

为了更加逼真地再现战场作战行动,针对对抗模拟系统中Agent构建面临的一系列问题,探索Agent的建模方法.以作战分队Agent的建模为例,在分析Agent功能需求的基础上,对Agent的结构表示及行为推理机制进行了详细的分析与设计,建立了作战分队Agent的静态结构模型及动态行为模型.该模型设计简洁,便于实现,基本满足了对抗模拟系统的仿真需求,也为系统中其它类型Agent的设计提供了参考.     

电子信息对抗中的计算机技术

电子信息对抗是现代战争中交战双方信息作战体系之间的综合对抗。在这场对抗中,计算机网络系统是各种作战体系的纽带和桥梁,计算机技术是电子战的核心要素。     

野战防空导弹武器系统攻防对抗作战效能仿真研究

考虑了攻防双方兵力部署和交战过程中的随机因素,建立了野战防空导弹武器系统攻防对抗作战效能模型。基于典型作战想定进行了仿真,分析了关键战技指标对作战效能的影响,为武器系统的研制提供了一定的参考。     

基于多变元网络的Cyber作战建模方法

Cyberspace是近年出现的一个新概念,分析了Cyberspace的概念及特性,提出Cyberspace层次概念模型,在此基础上,提出基于多变元网络的Cyber作战建模方法,认为Cyber作战建模可以分为对战争系统静态结构建模和交战行为动态交互建模,并对应分别建立了Cyberspace战争系统的多变元网络模型和Cyber作战交战行为的多变元网络演化模型,最后运用所建立的模型对一个典型Cyber战进行了分析.     

基于改进信息熵法的反集群目标作战效能评估研究

随着信息化技术的不断创新,无人机集群体系在未来战场将占据主导地位,分析研究相关的防御策略及拦截手段对我国无人技术创新和体系建设尤为重要.结合反集群作战任务需求,基于观察、判断、决策和行动(OO?DA)循环理论,建立对抗作战网络模型,并构建了反无人机集群作战能力指标体系.采用改进信息熵方法,提出一种高效准确的作战效能评估...     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.     

线性核时频信号表示及其仿真

根据ｃｈｉｒｐ信号在模糊域的特点,本文提出了线性核时频表示方法。这种方法在提高分辨率、消除交叉项以及抑制噪声等方面都具有较高的性能。理论分析和实验结果都证实了这种方法的有效性     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution

The surprising ‘Arab Spring’ raises the question as to what would enable national intelligence to provide high quality warnings prior to the eruption of popular revolutions. This article uses new sources of evidence to trace and explain Israel's success in comparison to US failure at correctly estimating the course of the Iranian Revolution in 1977–79. In explaining this variance, the article shows that it was mainly the result of the intimate acquaintance of Israel's representatives in Iran with the local language, history and culture, as well as the ability to communicate with locals – tools which the Americans completely lacked.     

关于教师继续教育培训模式的思考

继续教育作为终身教育的重要组成部分和基本形式,对教师的发展成长意义重大。继续教育工作开展十多年来,取得了一定的成绩,但还存在不少问题,如学习动机较为被动,管理认识不到位,教学内容陈旧空泛,教学方法呆板机械等。随着课程改革的不断深入,继续教育必须采取相应的改进措施,树立以人为本,服务至上的观点,教学内容的前瞻性与实用性并重,教学人员进行整合,教学方法灵活多样,评价考核规范科学等,以此激活受训教师内在的学习动机,更大程度地提高继续教育培训的实际效果。     

用DirectShow实现网络视频

目前市场上的网络监控技术一般用昂贵的硬件设备来支撑,投资较大。在深入研究微软的DirectX9.0的基础上,提出如何用DirectShow软件技术和普通的数字摄像头来实现网络视频的监控和实现技术,内容涉及通信协议、视频的编码与解码技术、视频的编码格式和COM组件编程技术等,最终的实验结果令人满意,且费用低廉,技术可靠,为在高速局域网内构建视频监控系统提供有效的技术支持。     

Interpreting the Ribchester Helmet

In 1796 a 13-year-old boy playing on wasteland behind his father’s house in Ribchester, Lancashire discovered an assemblage of over 30 Roman artefacts, including a decorated brass helmet. Although partially corroded the Ribchester helmet is a fine example of a first-century AD cavalry sports helmet. This article considers how the interpretation of the helmet has evolved since its discovery. The multi-faceted iconography of the helmet with its mural crown diadem is that of an elite soldier and is paralleled in other examples of cavalry sports helmets of the Ribchester type. The long-neglected imagery on the helmet bowl is reinterpreted and seen not as a haphazard collection of randomly placed combatants but as a highly structured, symmetrical composition specifically designed to be viewed from different directions.     

Desert insurgency: lessons from the third Tuareg rebellion

This article provides an in-depth examination and analysis of the 2006–2009 Tuareg rebellion in Mali and Niger. It identifies the underlying reasons behind the rebellion, explores contrasting counter-insurgency (COIN) strategies employed by the two governments, and presents some lessons learned. While both COIN approaches ultimately produced similar peace settlements, the article argues that the Malian strategy of reconciliation combined with the selective use of force was far more effective than the Nigerien iron fist approach at limiting the size and scope of the insurgency and producing a more sustainable peace. It concludes by looking at the role of external actors, particularly the United States, and how the failure to internationalize the conflict was actually more beneficial to the local COIN effort, as well as to the longer strategic interests of the United States in the region.