Combating Islamist radicalisation in South Africa

Is radical Islamism spreading in South Africa? The answer has to be an emphatic ‘yes’. When discussing issues of radicalisation in Africa, commentators often examine the case of Somalia's al-Shabaab or al-Qaeda's North African franchise, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Very little attention is paid to radicalisation amongst South Africa's Muslim population. Yet, there is growing evidence that South Africa has come to play an important role in global jihadi networks, from the provision of safehouses and identity documents to the movement of funds and the existence of paramilitary camps for local and foreign jihadis. This paper aims to briefly examine radicalisation and its attendant sources in the country, as well as seeking ways to combat it utilising lessons learned from other countries. ‘Institutional socialisation’ by means of the sources of radicalisation, as well as the concept of what could be termed ‘the democratisation of jihad’ are discussed. The author also proposes ways to combat radicalisation in South Africa utilising lessons learned from other countries, concluding that issues of radicalisation and deradicalisation have to be dealt with on the part of both government and the South African Muslim community.     

Does counterterrorism spending reduce the incidence and lethality of terrorism? A quantitative analysis of 34 countries

Following the 11 September 2001 attacks, the US government increased its counterterrorism (CT) funding and created several Federal Agencies such as the Department of Homeland Security; Transportation Security Administration; and National Counterterrorism Center. Similarly, the 7 July 2005, London bombings also compelled the British government to increase its CT funding. These examples illustrate a phenomenon that when states experience terrorism, they dramatically increase public safety spending in order to reduce or eliminate the incidents of and casualties resulting from acts of terror. Using statistical data collected from 34 countries covering nine years, this article examines recent CT spending increases. Critically, the authors explore whether recent public safety expenditures can measurably reduce the number of domestic and international terrorist attacks. The implications of their findings should be salient for policy-makers’ assessments of their countries’ current CT strategies and policies concerning their respective Intelligence and Security Communities.     

Pakistani Political Communication and Public Opinion on US Drone Attacks

Conventional wisdom holds that Pakistanis are overwhelmingly opposed to American drone strikes in their country’s tribal areas and that this opposition is driven by mass media coverage of the loss of life and property the strikes purportedly cause. Using an approach based in the literature in political communication and public opinion, we argue this conventional wisdom is largely inaccurate. Instead, we contend that awareness of drone strikes will be limited because Pakistan is a poor country with low educational attainment, high rates of illiteracy and persistent infrastructure problems that limit access to mass media. Moreover, because of these same country characteristics, Pakistanis’ beliefs about drone strikes will be shaped primarily by informal, face-to-face political communication, rather than through more formal media sources. We test this argument using data that we collected by fielding a 7,656 respondent, nationally-representative survey carried out in Pakistan in 2013. The results of the statistical analysis support our arguments.     

A chessboard model of the U‐boat war in the Atlantic with applications to signals intelligence

This paper uses a simple Monte Carlo model to analyze the influence of signals intelligence on the Second World War's Battle of the Atlantic. The principle measure of effectiveness is the number of U‐boat days of attack to which convoys were subjected. A secondary measure is the number of convoyed ships sunk. The model is validated against historical data and then used to explore the effectiveness of the two sides' signals intelligence. Allied use of signals intelligence is shown to have been capable of completely offsetting German use of signals intelligence, and then some. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

采用故障信息分级确定最佳监测点分布

装备结构的复杂性使监测中确定最佳分配点极为困难,本文在最大故障信息量的基础上,提出了故障信息分级的判定原则,用以确定监测点的最佳分布,从而可在最少监测点的情况下,获得最多的装备运行故障信息,为故障诊断提供可靠数据。     

加入WTO对我国高等教育的影响及对策

加入世界贸易组织既对我国高等教育提出了严峻的挑战,又提供了发展的良好机遇.我国加入世界贸易组织后,国外教育产业将进一步介入国内教育市场,在教育体制、教育思想、教育方式等方面,对我国高等教育将产生全面而深刻的影响.我们必须大力发展高等教育,积极支持中外合作办学,鼓励教育投资多元化,努力开辟国际教育市场,尽快完善教育法规,主动迎接WTO对我国高等教育的挑战.     

Military intelligence and the war in Dhofar: An appraisal

This article examines the role military intelligence played in the Dhofar campaign between 1970 and 1976. Drawing on an array of sources, it examines not only the crucial role played by military intelligence in prosecuting a successful operational campaign against a Marxist inspired insurgency, but equally, the importance that intelligence played in consolidating the Al Bu Said dynasty when across Oman and Dhofar itself, the material benefits to be had from the discovery and production of oil had yet to be realised.     

智能化水雷引信及其评估方法

讨论了智能化水雷引信的内涵,建立了考核水雷引信智能化水平的指标体系及模糊评估框架和模型.水雷引信智能化水平评估的计算实例表明,该方法和模型是完备可行的.     

公安边防情报人员的元认知分析

从认知心理角度分析,公安边防情报分析过程是边防情报分析人员头脑内信息加工系统的工作过程,在这一过程中存在元认知,元认知在信息加工系统中处于支配地位,能控制调节各种信息加工活动,并能促进边防情报分析人员思维的创新。研究边防情报分析人员的元认知有助于提高边防情报分析质量。分析了边防情报分析人员元认知的几个方面,提出了提高边防情报分析人员元认知能力及措施。     

Wellington's use of deception tactics in the Peninsular War

Wellington's use of intelligence developed throughout his military career. Arguably, his experiences in India taught him the importance of intelligence, but it was during the Peninsular War that he honed his analytical techniques. As the war progressed, he developed sophisticated methods for the integration of strategic intelligence – largely gathered by civilian agents – with operational intelligence – collected by military personnel. This allowed him to develop operational conceptualisation, which in turn contributed to the successes he achieved over the French forces in Iberia. However, more than anything, it was his considered use of intelligence, combined with intricate deception operations in the latter stages of the conflict, which deprived the French of reliable intelligence on his own movements, and demonstrated his understanding of the importance of intelligence. This article investigates Wellington's increasing awareness of the importance of intelligence and deception during the Peninsular War.     

新形势下以需求为导向的装备保障能力建设

分析了军事智能技术的由来与发展现状,探讨了目前世界军事智能技术的应用领域。重点阐述军事智能技术对中国军事实力提高的重要意义、如何加快军事智能技术发展的几个问题,为中国军队未来智能化发展和应用提出建设性的思考。     

公安边防人力情报源可信度影响因素分析

公安边防部队的情报来源以人力情报源为主,通过社会学研究方法对公安边防人力情报源可信度影响因素进行分析,得出5大类影响因素,并对所得结果加以解释,分析计算出各影响因素重要程度权重值,对公安边防人力情报源可信度影响因素重要性进行了排序,为构建公安边防人力情报源评价指标体系奠定基础。     

陆军无人装备作战指挥信息系统

本文对陆战场无人化、智能化作战需求及其对指挥信息系统的能力要求进行分析。以美军为典型样例对无人装备的指挥信息系统发展现状进行分析,对无人装备作战指挥信息系统体系架构进行构想,并提出未来需重点突破的关键技术,最后对军队无人装备指挥信息体系的发展提出了几点建议。     

“算法战争”的概念、特点与影响

分析了\"算法战争\"的概念,考察了美军围绕筹划\"算法战争\"所展开的相关举措,讨论了\"算法战争\"的潜在影响,并指出了其局限性所在。建议跟踪研判\"算法战争\"的未来演变趋势,依托军民融合加强算法储备,重视反制措施的研究和伦理探讨。     

国内控制系统故障诊断技术的现状与展望

介绍了国内控制系统故障诊断技术的发展情况,对其各种方法进行了详细的评述,给出其应用总结,最后对其发展进行了展望。