Building the Somali National Army: Anatomy of a failure, 2008–2018

ABSTRACT

Over a decade of security force assistance (SFA) initiatives to build an effective Somali National Army (SNA) failed because of the interrelated effects of political, contextual and operational challenges. The key political challenges were interest asymmetry between international actors and Somali elites, insufficient focus on institution-building and a lack of donor coordination. The principal contextual challenges in Somalia were the legacies of two decades of state collapse and the negative effects of clan dynamics. The main operational challenges were building an army while simultaneously fighting a war, the complexities of military integration, and the severe capability gaps afflicting the SNA.     

‘Responsibility to protect’ and the African Union: Assessing the AU’s capacity to respond to regional complex humanitarian and political emergencies

Despite its many institutional and political weaknesses and limitations, the African Union (AU) has been developing a variety of tools and mechanisms to respond effectively to complex disasters and emergencies (both natural and manmade) by building up a comprehensive regional security architecture. Furthermore, it has become the first and only regional or international organisation to enshrine the principle of ‘responsibility to protect’ (R2P) in its Constitutive Act. This regional approach to and formal endorsement of the R2P principle allowed it to assume a particular place in the promotion of peace and security in its area. This article aims to critically assess the effectiveness of the AU on the African continent by exploring its real capacity in preventing and responding to emergencies and violent conflicts, and therefore in rendering the principle of R2P operational. The article argues that the formalisation of principles does not necessarily mean their effective implementation. The organisation's use of the R2P principle is also greatly conditioned by internal and external factors.     

Operation ‘enduring freedom’: a victory for a conventional force fighting an unconventional war

The track record of the US military in unconventional wars has not been good and there were fears that Operation ‘Enduring Freedom’ might suffer the same fate as previous campaigns. This contribution explores why the Taliban were defeated so easily by the US in 2001. It challenges the view that America's victory was due solely to changes in its modus operandi or that the outcome heralds a change in the fortunes of the US when fighting unconventional war. It also questions the idea that America's victory was a consequence of Taliban incompetence. Instead, it explains the defeat of the Taliban in terms of the prevailing political conditions within Afghanistan, which made them vulnerable to attack. The essay concludes that current political circumstances could, in the long run, permit the resurrection of the Taliban and undermine the US-led coalition's victory.     

The fateful phoenix: the revival of Al-Qa’ida in Iraq

Although the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is seen as a novel manifestation of Islamic extremism, it is in fact the latest, albeit perhaps the most effective, of a long line of revivalist movements in the Islamic and the Arab worlds. Its motivations – hisba and jihad – differ little from its predecessors and its ambitions – to create a state organised in accordance with the precepts of the Islamic caliphate – reflect a long-standing Islamic ambition. It differs, of course, in terms of the sophistication of its political and military strategies, which mirror the contemporary complexities of the world in which it operates, but its objectives recall long-standing Islamic ideals, even if articulated in radically brutal and extremist ways. More importantly, perhaps, ISIS or Da’ish, to give it its Arabic sobriquet, reflects the enormous degree of resentment inside the Middle East at the ways in which Western powers have intervened in regional affairs over recent years, particularly their support for regimes and economic systems there that have betrayed, in the popular imaginary, the essential principles of social justice that lie at the root of Islamic vision of ideal social order. Indeed, in many respects, its analysis of the world in which it operates and of the objectives it seeks differ little in essence from those any other resistance and rejectionist movement, whether religious or sectarian. More specifically, it has been the sectarian conflict that resulted from the reversal of political order in Iraq as a result of the 2003 American-led invasion that has driven the success of the movement in capturing widespread Sunni support. Whether it can manage the complexities of the administration of a state remains open to question.     

‘Fighting for peace’

In Africa, most of the present conflicts are civil, intra-state wars where belligerent groups use guerrilla tactics to achieve various political, economic or ideological objectives. The atrocities and the effect of these on-going wars on innocent civilians, human suffering, poverty and development are beyond comprehension. Not surprisingly, the majority of current peace operations are in Africa, with more than 70 countries contributing forces to these conflict zones. On the continent, South Africa has come to assume a leading role in peace operations and is now a major troop-contributing country to UN and AU missions. In the past 11 years, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) has taken part in no fewer than 14 peace missions. This article provides a brief background of the conflicts in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan, the different United Nations (UN) and African Union (AU) mandates under which peacekeepers had to operate as well as their objectives, and the extent of South Africa's involvement in the various missions. In the last section, the major challenges, that these operations have posed are highlighted.     

ATAM方法及其在C~4ISR系统体系结构评价中的应用

ATAM(ArchitectureTradeoffAnalysisMethod)方法是一种评价信息系统体系结构级设计的方法,它通过对诸如性能、可更改性、可靠性、安全性等多个质量属性的分析来确定体系结构设计中的折衷点,从而降低设计风险。介绍了ATAM方法的基本概念、步骤,并给出了该方法在C4ISR系统体系结构评价中的一个应用实例。     

Involving the elephant: technical isolation and the role of India in a possible solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis

Apart from North Korea, no state's nuclear program in the twenty-first century has raised more concern to international security than Iran's. While Iran insists that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purpose in line with Article IV of non-proliferation treaty, the USA and its allies insist that Iran has military intentions and called for sanctions. The failure of sanctions to deter Iran from its nuclear agenda had made many scholars and policy-makers call for a preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Situated within this debate, this paper positions itself as an antagonist to the preemptive airstrike option and argues that involving India in a possible nuclear “iron curtain” against Iran – a move known as technical isolation – remains the best option to the current nuclear crises.     

基于Bow-tie模型的发动机空中停车事故分析与预防

发动机空中停车是航空事故主要致因之一。首先,通过数据梳理和分析,构建发动机空中停车故障树,结合重要度分析理论,求解各基本事件的重要度,得到造成发动机空中停车事件的最薄弱环节——供油系统故障。基于Bow-tie理论,构建发动机供油系统Bow-tie模型,直观地显示了该故障产生的根本原因和可能导致的后果,进而提出了预防该故障发生的对策建议,达到降低发动机空中停车事故概率的目的。     

反导作战中多TBM威胁评估模型研究

威胁评估模型是反导指挥控制系统中的关键模型之一.在分析和研究反导作战指挥控制问题的基础上,重点对TBM威胁评估的影响因素进行了分析总结;对各级反导指挥控制系统的威胁评估模型中的异同点进行了对比分析.最后结合层次分析法的相关理论给出了战区级反导指控系统威胁评估模型的求解过程.该算法在指控系统仿真应用中取得了较好的效果.对后续反导作战指挥控制问题的研究具有很高的参考价值.     

基于硬件计数器的MPEG4视频应用性能特征分析

通过指令集扩展来增强多媒体应用性能是微处理器发展的一个趋势,IntelMMX、SSE和SSE2是很好的例子。但应用本身的特点是否支持这些体系结构特性,应用软件是否充分发挥了多媒体指令集的潜力,都是值得关注的问题。采用动态Profiling的方法,研究MPEG4视频应用在基于IntelP4处理器的桌面机上的性能特性,使用硬件计数器工具来获取指令级的性能数据,并进行了深入分析。发现MPEG4播放软件较好地利用了IntelP4的64位MMX指令集,但对SSE和SSE2指令集几乎没有利用上;两级Cache不命中导致的性能损失很大。为提高视频播放性能,改进存储层次设计与优化播放软件比改进多媒体指令集更加有效。     

面向服务的海战场指挥信息系统体系结构框架

一体化联合作战和基于信息系统的体系作战对海战场指挥信息系统提出了更高的要求.从面向服务的海战场指挥信息系统构建需求出发,在军事信息服务定义的基础上,利用SOA和P2P设计了海战场指挥信息系统体系结构的物理框架和功能框架,给出了各框架的组成和结构,并与已有框架作了对比分析,结果表明所提的框架更加全面、可靠和灵活,为开展面向服务的指挥信息系统研究打下了坚实的基础.     

作战信息交换分析与建模

在C4ISR体系结构中,虽然活动模型,逻辑数据模型及其它的产品是开发信息交换矩阵的基础,但是随着C4ISR系统越来越复杂,相应的信息元素数量也越来越多,以至于很难从这些产品直接过渡到信息交换矩阵。在数学的基本理论——集合论的基础上,提出一种识别信息交换元素的模型。它通过整理作战活动,作战节点,作战信息元素的关系,并用一种直观的方式表现作战信息元素。     

科氏流量计信号相位差测量新算法

对科氏流量计信号进行处理时,传统相位差测量算法存在较大误差。为更好地抑制频谱泄露,提高相位差测量精度,在传统DTFT算法的基础上,通过矩形窗和汉宁窗卷积运算构造出一种新窗——RHC窗。计及负频率成分的影响,提出了一种基于RHC窗的DTFT相位差测量新算法。详细阐述了新算法的原理,并与传统DTFT算法进行了对比仿真,验证了新算法的有效性。     

新型装备作战指挥信息系统军事需求论证的反向分析方法

基于新型装备作战指挥信息系统构成及功能,提出了\"体系作战效果-作战运用方式-关键能力需求-需求方案决策优化\"的军事需求映射机制,构建了新型装备作战指挥信息系统军事需求论证的反向分析总体框架,并分析反向分析方法的内容和设计了流程。该研究对新型作战力量指挥信息系统的顶层设计和工程建设具有一定的价值,对于开展其他复杂系统的体系结构研究也具有借鉴意义。