The salvo combat model with area fire

This article analyzes versions of the salvo model of missile combat where area fire is used by one or both sides in a battle. Although these models share some properties with the area fire Lanchester model and the aimed fire salvo model, they also display some interesting differences, especially over the course of several salvos. Although the relative size of each force is important with aimed fire, with area fire, it is the absolute size that matters. Similarly, although aimed fire exhibits square law behavior, area fire shows approximately linear behavior. When one side uses area fire and the other uses aimed fire, the model displays a mix of square and linear law behavior. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 652–660, 2013     

基于概率分析法的无人攻击机作战效能分析模型研究

未来防空战场上无人攻击机已成为一种重要的空中威胁。无人攻击机作战过程可分为飞行、突防、攻击三个阶段,运用概率分析方法分别建立了各阶段的数学模型,给出了其作战效能表达式,为进一步进行无人攻击机作战效能分析提供了模型基础。     

提高海军航空兵体系作战能力问题研究

转变思想观念、拓宽战略视野,积极探索实践,在"重建、严管、常用"的基础上,着力聚合体系作战力量,加快提高海军航空兵体系作战能力。首先从指挥信息体系融合程度、装备信息化含量、集成训练质量、综合保障能力、侦察预警能力及实战能力等六个方面阐述海军航空兵体系作战能力基本情况;提出加强信息系统下海军航空兵体系作战能力建设问题,即构建侦察预警体系、加快远海预警探测网建设、改善攻防力量结构以及加强电子对抗装备建设;最后,提出提高海军航空兵体系作战能力的有效举措,即完善作战体系、深化作战研究、加快转变步伐、提供能力支撑、推动能力聚合及持续能力发展。     

重塑军队作战力量体系的几点思考

作战力量体系是一个国家军事力量体系的核心组成部分。近些年通过深化国防和军队改革,我军军事力量体系宏观上发生了脱胎换骨的变化,接下来到了对作战力量体系进行重塑的攻坚阶段,本文结合当前作战力量体系发展的一些特点和建设存在的短板,提出了重塑我军作战力量体系的决策建议。      

Analysis of artillery shoot‐and‐scoot tactics

Firing multiple artillery rounds from the same location has two main benefits: a high rate of fire at the enemy and improved accuracy as the shooter's aim adjusts to previous rounds. However, firing repeatedly from the same location carries significant risk that the enemy will detect the artillery's location. Therefore, the shooter may periodically move locations to avoid counter‐battery fire. This maneuver is known as the shoot‐and‐scoot tactic. This article analyzes the shoot‐and‐scoot tactic for a time‐critical mission using Markov models. We compute optimal move policies and develop heuristics for more complex and realistic settings. Spending a reasonable amount of time firing multiple shots from the same location is often preferable to moving immediately after firing an initial salvo. Moving frequently reduces risk to the artillery, but also limits the artillery's ability to inflict damage on the enemy.     

海军基地防御战斗中的电子对抗

从近年来的几场高技术局部战争来看,在未来高技术局部战争中,交战双方都将广泛使用电子战手段,谁拥有了"制电磁权",谁就能掌握战争的主动权.以近年的几次高技术局部战争为背景,对电子战在海军基地防御战斗中的使用和战术运用情况进行了研究,分析了在海军基地防御中电子战的作战组织形式及特点,并提出了一些建议.     

【专题】编者按

本文结合新体制新任务转型建设的要求和装备论证、研制、试验与评估工作实践及备战训练需求,针对装备作战能力生成、保持、提升和发挥,提出了作战能力图谱概念的定义、用途、分类、特点、数据来源、应用场景、生成和使用流程以及技术应用研究方向;并静态展示了装备能力指标体系、装备作战能力任务满足度、装备组成与作战能力支撑、同类装备作战能力对比、单项能力指标分解、作战能力关系以及作战能力任务需求等可视化的作战能力图谱示例。开展此项研究旨在为从事装备规划、论证、研制及试验的科研人员以及作战指挥员在了解掌握和综合运用并有效发挥装备作战能力等活动时,提供一种描述、传达、汇总以及交付装备作战能力的数据可视化方法。     

Effective attacks in the salvo combat model: Salvo sizes and quantities of targets

This article considers two related questions of tactics in the context of the salvo model for naval missile combat. For a given set of targets, how many missiles should be fired to produce an effective attack? For a given available salvo size, how many enemy targets should be fired at? In the deterministic version of the model I derive a simple optimality relationship between the number of missiles to fire and the number of targets to engage. In the stochastic model I employ the expected loss inflicted and the probability of enemy elimination as the main performance measures and use these to derive salvo sizes that are in some sense “optimal.” I find that the offensive firepower needed for an effective attack depends not only on a target's total strength but also on the relative balance between its active defensive power and passive staying power. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Optimizing the US Navy's combat logistics force

We study how changes to the composition and employment of the US Navy combat logistic force (CLF) influence our ability to supply our navy worldwide. The CLF consists of about 30 special transport ships that carry ship and aircraft fuel, ordnance, dry stores, and food, and deliver these to client combatant ships underway, making it possible for our naval forces to operate at sea for extended periods. We have modeled CLF operations to evaluate a number of transforming initiatives that simplify its operation while supporting an even larger number of client ships for a greater variety of missions. Our input is an employment schedule for navy battle groups of ships operating worldwide, extending over a planning horizon of 90–180 days. We show how we use optimization to advise how to sustain these ships. We have used this model to evaluate new CLF ship designs, advise what number of ships in a new ship class would be needed, test concepts for forward at‐sea logistics bases in lieu of conventional ports, demonstrate the effects of changes to operating policy, and generally try to show whether and how the CLF can support planned naval operations. Published 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2008     

A model for geographically distributed combat interactions of swarming naval and air forces

This article describes the Distributed Interaction Campaign Model (DICM), an exploratory campaign analysis tool and asset allocation decision‐aid for managing geographically distributed and swarming naval and air forces. The model is capable of fast operation, while accounting for uncertainty in an opponent's plan. It is intended for use by commanders and analysts who have limited time for model runs, or a finite budget. The model is purpose‐built for the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment, and supports analysis of the following questions: What happens when swarms of geographically distributed naval and air forces engage each other and what are the key elements of the opponents’ force to attack? Are there changes to force structure that make a force more effective, and what impacts will disruptions in enemy command and control and wide‐area surveillance have? Which insights are to be gained by fast exploratory mathematical/computational campaign analysis to augment and replace expensive and time‐consuming simulations? An illustrative example of model use is described in a simple test scenario. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 562–576, 2016     

When is model complexity too much? Illustrating the benefits of simple models with Hughes' salvo equations

The simulations that many defense analysts rely upon in their studies continue to grow in size and complexity. This paper contrasts the guidance that the authors have received—from some of the giants of military operations research—with the current practice. In particular, the analytic utility of Hughes' simple salvo equations is compared with that of the complex Joint Warfighting System (JWARS), with respect to JWARS' key performance parameters. The comparison suggests that a family of analytic tools supports the best analyses. It follows that smaller, more agile, and transparent models, such as Hughes' salvo equations, are underutilized in defense analyses. We believe that these models should receive more attention, use, and funding. To illustrate this point, this paper uses two very simple models (by modern standards) to rapidly generate insights on the value of information relative to force strength. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

“作战云”理论视阈下的装甲兵装备保障

"作战云"的作战理念将引发装甲装备保障领域的深刻变革。文章剖析了"作战云"理论视阈下装甲兵装备保障问题的基本内涵,从装备保障力量部署、指挥控制方式、协同方式、防护手段四个方面分析了"作战云"视阈下装甲兵装备保障的主要特点,提出"探测——决策——保障——评估"的装备保障行动流程。     

美军航母战斗群空袭火力对地攻击效能分析

以美军航母战斗大队标准编成为例,简要分析了美军航母战斗群的空袭火力构成。进而分别建立了机载普通对地攻击弹药和巡航导弹、空地导弹对地面目标的毁伤能力的模型。然后以此为基础,从空袭兵器的突防概率、对目标的发现概率、对各类目标的毁伤概率和空袭某一目标所需的兵力4个方面,对航母战斗群空袭火力体系的对地攻击效能进行了深入研究,并建立相应的数学模型。最后根据在历次战争中得到的经验数据,对美军航母战斗群空袭火力对地攻击效能进行了计算,并分析了计算结果,为科学判断敌情提供了依据。     

基于数据链的航空作战进程研究

研究了数据链支持下的航空作战兵力变化问题。将空战能力指数通过映射关系转化为平均战斗力水平,从数学理论上证明了二者具有等价性。结合平均战斗力水平,建立了基于数据链的改进蓝彻斯特空战模型及具有增援力量的作战模型。仿真分析了等效实力比、不同初始值以及增援时刻的不同对空战进程的影响,结果表明数据链具有提高作战效能和改变战局的作用。实验发现了在增援作战时,存在"局部最优增援时刻点"这一重要结论。     

科学的军事理论是战斗力

由科学技术是第一生产力可以得出,科学的军事理论就是战斗力,也是第一战斗力。这个看似显见的论断并不是可有可无,而是值得直白昭示、大力宣扬,它彰显了军事理论的极端重要性。科学的军事理论把握国家安全拓展规律,是军事人才培养的总体方针;科学的军事理论洞察军事技术发展规律,是武器装备建设的根本指导;科学的军事理论洞悉战争演变规律,是作战方式创新的根本遵循。     

作战效能评估方法研究

作战效能评估是指挥决策的基础。随着战争形态由机械化向信息化的转变,作战信息爆炸式增长,战争系统呈现出前所未有的复杂特征,给作战效能评估工作提出了挑战。文章根据效能评估模型建立机理的不同,将效能评估方法分为数学模型驱动、作战模拟驱动、经验驱动和数据驱动,并从每类方法中选取一种或多种典型方法进行介绍,对各类方法的优缺点和适用范围进行比较,分析得出效能评估发展趋势。     

Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model

We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000     

Markovian models of three‐on‐one combat involving a hidden defender

In this paper, Markovian models of three‐on‐one stochastic firefights between ground‐based weapon systems are developed. These models address a common scenario of interest to the military, but one which has been much neglected in analytic combat models, that of combat between a hidden defender and an exposed attacking force. Each combatant must detect an opponent before commencing their firing cycle, a task which is considerably more difficult for the attacker. In the models developed here, the defender detects the exposed attacking group after an exponentially distributed time interval, while each attacker has a fixed probability of detecting the defender via the flash signature produced after each shot fired by him. The utility of the approach is demonstrated by investigating what impact the introduction of a coordinated gun‐laying system for the attacking force might have, a system made possible by battlefield digitization. The method used here allows models to be developed incrementally. This and other advantages of the Markovian approach are discussed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 627–646, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10041     

一类带时滞的非线性兰彻斯特战斗模型的分析

基于非线性兰彻斯特方程的一般形式和现代战争的特点,考虑到时间因素在现代战争中的巨大作用,建立并讨论了一类带时滞的非线性兰彻斯特战斗模型。通过定性分析,得到了模型的平衡点及其稳定性,证明了原模型解的存在唯一性,并给出了解的存在区域。战例分析结果表明该模型能用来描述现代战争。因此,该模型对研究现代战争的战斗进程、武器发展规划、现代军事练兵等都具有一定的参考价值。     

空防对抗武器装备对比优势评估模型

针对战役对抗准备和兵力部署的需要,根据兰切斯特动态方程,从作战能力入手,建立了空防对抗武器装备对比优势评估模型,提出了一种异类武器装备对比优势的定量计算方法。给出了应用该方法的具体步骤,通过算例分析,验证了模型的合理性,该模型对其他武器装备的对比优势评估具有一定的参考价值。