Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon

Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

On hazard rate processes

Hazard rate processes are discussed in the context of doubly stochastic Poisson processes. We derive an explicit expression for the reliability function corresponding to an increasing hazard rate processes with independent increments. Also, bounds are obtained for the reliability function of a system with a general hazard rate process.     

在ROBINSON-LUXEMBERG 框架下的近初等过程论

本文在Ｒｏｂｉｎｓｏｎ－Ｌｕｘｅｍｂｅｒｇ框架下重建了由Ｎｅｌｓｏｎ所创立的近初等过程论,更有意义的是我们由近初等过程可找回原来的标准过程,为在此框架下运用近初等过程论做随机分析打下了基础。     

Computation techniques for large scale undiscounted markov decision processes

In this paper we consider computation techniques associated with the optimization of large scale Markov decision processes. Markov decision processes and the successive approximation procedure of White are described. Then a procedure for scaling continuous time and renewal processes so that they are amenable to the White procedure is discussed. The effect of the scale factor value on the convergence rate of the procedure and insights into proper scale factor selection are given.     

基于BER和CTMC的航天器发射组织过程可靠度模型

在航天器发射工程中,存在组织过程可靠性评估难以量化的问题。基于航天器发射组织过程的时间特性呈现多个子过程并发执行且子过程具有Markov性和齐次性的特点,使用连续时间Markov链(CTMC)建立多吸收态的组织过程可靠度模型,利用互模拟等价关系(BER)简化组织过程的状态空间,并进一步给出各种状态转移率和组织过程可靠度计算方法。最后,通过数据分析说明模型在航天器发射工程进度计划评估中的作用和意义。     

The M/G/1 queue with instantaneous bernoulli feedback

In this paper we are concerned with several random processes that occur in M/G/1 queues with instantaneous feedback in which the feedback decision process is a Bernoulli process. Queue length processes embedded at various times are studied. It is shown that these do not all have the same asymptotic distribution, and that in general none of the output, input, or feedback processes is renewal. These results have implications in the application of certain decomposition results to queueing networks.     

指挥控制通信与情报(C3I)系统的评价

综述了目前用于评价Ｃ３Ｉ系统的各类方法与过程,讨论了Ｃ３Ｉ系统的评价框架,并对这个框架下的各种评价方法与过程的长处和不足提出了作者的看法     

一类扩散过程的最优停止

金融数学中关于美式期权的定价理论最后归结为一个对扩散过程的最优停止问题,扩散过程是特殊的马氏过程,本文讨论了当报酬函数非负时的值函数性质及其最优停时的表示。特别对带折扣的报酬的讨论,更加符合金融数学的需要     

Comparison of stochastic processes used in sonar detection models

In any model for a sonar detection process, some assumption must be made about the nature of the acoustic fluctuation process. Two processes that are widely used in this role are the jump process and the Gauss-Markov process. These processes are similar in that they are both stationer) Markov processes and have autocovariance functions of the form s?²exp(—γt). For these reasons, it might be believed that one could use either of these processes and get comparable results if all one is interested in is computing cumulative detection probabilities or mean time to gain or lose contact. However, such is not the case in that vastly different results can be obtained in some applications. An application of this sort is presented. We also present necessary and sufficient conditions for a threshold to have the property that it is almost surely crossed by the jump process, or by the Gauss-Markov process. This affords another method of comparison.     

A survey of performance issues in defence innovation

This article reviews innovation processes in defence. It analyses the way and the context under which these processes are carried out. The article covers the features of defence goods with impact on innovation, the development of a new good, the institutional arrangements that support these processes and the effect of innovation on industrial market. The analysis helps to identify the causes of facts observed in practice, such as poor performance in terms of product quality, cost or delivery time, as well as to assess potential remedies. Some policy implications, which can be derived from this analysis, are finally outlined.     

基于对策论的威胁评估模型

数据融合模型一般包括多个层次,威胁评估是其中之一。威胁评估根据态势情况,推测威胁程度及可能的行动方案。在分析对策论和威胁评估的基础上,提出基于矩阵对策的威胁评估模型及分析方法。     

一种基于协调理论的军事决策过程建模方法

在分析协调理论应用的基础上,针对军事决策过程的建模,基于UML2.0的用例图,提出了基于协调理论的军事决策过程建模方法。应用该建模方法,有利于分析军事决策过程中的核心任务活动及其相关依赖,为指挥员实施平行决策,并发地制订和确定作战方案(Course of Action)提供依据,从而提高军事决策过程的适应性。     

Renewal processes of phase type

This paper discusses a class of analytically and numerically tractable renewal processes, which generalize the Poisson process. When used to describe interarrival or service times in queues, these renewal processes lead to computationally explicit solutions which involve only real arithmetic. Previous modifications of the Poisson process, based on the Erlang or the hyperexponential distributions, appear as particular cases.     

经马氏修正的Poisson过程的极大似然估计

近年来 ,隐马氏模型成为研究相依随机变量的一个十分有用的工具。实际应用过程中的一个很重要的问题是如何对隐马氏模型的参数进行估计。将一类连续时间隐马氏模型的问题转化为离散时间隐马氏模型的问题 ,给出了具体的隐马氏模型———经马氏修正的Poisson过程的极大似然估计及其算法。此类过程被广泛用来对复杂电信网络的交通流进行建模     

Approximation for the departure process of a queue in a network

A simple renewal process is identified to approximate the complex departure process of a queue often found in queueing network models. The arrival process to the queue is the superposition or merging of several independent component-renewal processes that are approximations of departure processes from other queues and external arrival processes; there is a single server with exponential service times, and the waiting space is infinite. The departure process of this queue is of interest because it is the arrival process to other queues in the network. The approximation proposed is a hybrid; the mean and variance of the approximating departure intervals is a weighted average of those determined by basic methods in Whitt [41] with the weighting function empirically determined using simulation. Tandem queueing systems with superposition arrival processes and exponential service times are used to evaluate the approximation. The departure process of the first queue in the tandem is approximated by a renewal process, the tandem system is replaced by two independent queues, and the second queue is solved analytically. When compared to simulation estimates, the average absolute error in hybrid approximations of the expected number in the second queue is 6%, a significant improvement over 22–41% in the basic methods.     

组合导航中SAR匹配位置参数传递过程

飞行器INS/SAR组合导航中SAR匹配位置参数作为组合滤波器的输入之前需经过多个传递环节的转换.研究了从地面SAR匹配位置到载体主惯导中心位置所涉及各环节间的相互关系及诸参数在各环节中的传递过程,包括地面SAR匹配位置参数向飞行器上SAR相位中心的传递,SAR相位中心参数向辅助惯导中心的传递以及辅助惯导中心位置参数向主惯导位置中心的传递,以此为基础建立测量参数传递过程数学模型.基于传递模型惯导修正及传递误差分析实验结果与实际相符,验证了参数传递模型的正确性与可行性.     

基于SD的信息化防御作战中兰彻斯特方程

在对信息化条件下的防御作战进程分析的基础上,增加信息因素和兵力补充速度对经典的兰彻斯特方程进行改进。通过引入系统动力学方法,构建了信息化条件下的防御作战进程的系统动力学模型,利用系统动力学方法来对改进的兰彻斯特方程进行求解。仿真结果证明了系统动力学在解决复杂兰彻斯特方程中的优越性。     

The military as a learning organisation: establishing the fundamentals of best-practice in lessons-learned

The post-Cold War era has witnessed the rapid expansion of organisational learning initiatives within NATO militaries, especially formal “lessons-learned” processes. The effectiveness of national lessons-learned processes in recalibrating military activity to the demands of ongoing operations has been highly-differentiated. However, the academic literature on military change and practitioner guidance has been slow to investigate the key features of best-practice in military learning. This article breaks new ground by drawing upon the literature on dynamic organisational capabilities to explore the fundamental organisational processes and activities which are necessary to implement successful lessons-learned. It examines, in particular, the organisational features which facilitate “knowledge transformation”: the effective combination of new knowledge gained from intra- and inter-organisational learning with existing organisational knowledge. The article concludes by highlighting several potential future empirical and theoretical research agendas in military learning and the importance of engagement between lessons-learned practitioners and organisational learning scholars.     

航天装备大数据资源平台构建技术研究

航天装备研制涉及论证、研制、生产、试验、综合保障等各个环节,所产生的数据具有种类多、数据量大、异构性强等特点,且数据资源分散于各科研机构院所,形成一个个数据孤岛,严重制约了型号数据的统一管理和协同应用。为了建立“逻辑统一、物理分散”的航天装备统一大数据中心,本文提出一种航天装备大数据资源平台构建技术,该平台基于统一的数据编目规范,综合利用云计算、微服务、区块链等技术,可实现多维异构数据深度融合管控,实现基于型号科研生产活动下的数据逻辑统一管理和实体分布式存储,能够解决航天装备整个研制活动全要素全过程的数据采集和可控共享的现实需求,为各业务场景下的数据分析奠定基础。     

Coating processes towards selective laser sintering of energetic material composites

This research aims to contribute to the safe methodology for additive manufacturing (AM) of energetic materials. Coating formulation processes were investigated and evaluated to find a suitable method that may enable selective laser sintering (SLS) as the safe method for fabrication of high explosive (HE) compositions. For safety and convenience reasons, the concept demonstration was conducted using inert explosive simulants with properties quasi-similar to the real HE. Coating processes for simulant RDX-based microparticles by means of PCL and 3,4,5-trimethoxybenzaldehyde (as TNT simulant) are reported. These processes were evaluated for uniformity of coating the HE inert simulant particles with binder materials to facilitate the SLS as the adequate binding and fabrication method. Suspension system and single emulsion methods gave required particle near spherical morphology, size and uniform coating. The suspension process appears to be suitable for the SLS of HE mocks and potential formulation methods for active HE composites. The density is estimated to be comparable with the current HE compositions and plastic bonded explosives (PBXs) such as C4 and PE4, produced from traditional methods. The formulation method developed and understanding of the science behind the processes paves the way toward safe SLS of the active HE compositions and may open avenues for further research and development of munitions of the future.