Optimization methods for large-scale multiechelon stockage problems

I examine the problem of determining inventory stockage levels and locations of different parts in a multiechelon system. This stockage problem is complicated by parts commonality—each part may be used by several different end items. Stockage levels and locations of each part affect the availability of end items that use the part, since an end item will be out of service if it requires a part that is not available. Of course, if the part is available at another nearby location, then the end item will be out of service for a shorter period of time. An essential feature of any model for this problem is constraints on operational availability of the end items. Because these constraints would involve nonconvex functions if the stockage levels were allowed to vary continuously, I formulate a 0–1 linear optimization model of the stockage problem. In this model, each part can be stocked at any of a number of prespecified levels at each echelon. The model is to minimize stockage cost of the selected items subject to the end-item availability constraints and limits on the total weight, volume, and number of different parts stocked at each echelon. Advantages and disadvantages of different Lagrangian relaxations and the simplex method with generalized upper-bounding capability are discussed for solving this stockage model.     

Incorporating redundancy considerations into stockage models

This article is concerned with evaluating the impact on weapon system availability of component and assembly redundancy. The evaluation must be efficient, and it must be possible to integrate the evaluation into multiechelon stockage models whose objective is to find the least cost mix of stockage consistent with the availability goals for weapon (or other type) systems. The mathematics to be discussed here provides a rigorous solution to the evaluation problem when there is only a single supply echelon; there can be upper-echelon repair, but not supply, unless the supply is from a “perfect” supplier, always in stock. For the more general multiechelon case, approximate approaches are presented.     

舰空导弹武器系统作战效能评估综述

在舰空导弹武器系统作战效能评估研究现状基础上,分析武器系统作战效能评估的关键研究方向,如作战效能评估方法及模型、作战指挥效能评估、武器系统使用可用性评估、人机系统可靠性评估、武器系统生存能力评估、任务完成程度评估、武器系统战场抢修研究等,展望了该研究领域的发展动向。     

基于可用度仿真分析的装备修理级别确定方法

针对通过更换备件完成修复性维修且常年担负战备的新型武器装备修理级别问题,建立基于使用可用度仿真分析的修理级别分析模型。以地空导弹装备为例,重点仿真分析中继级修复比例、送修率和远程支援技术因子3个指标,定量分析表明使用可用度与3个指标的比例关系,从而可根据使用可用度要求确定该系统修复性维修的修理级别。给出了修复性维修的修理级别分析方法和流程,实例验证了该模型的准确性和可行性。     

装甲装备使用可用度与维修保障费用的优化模型

维修保障费用是影响装甲装备使用可用度的重要因素之一。要在有限的保障经费下实现高可用度要求,就必须建立装甲装备的使用可用度与维修保障费用的优化模型。根据装甲装备实际维修特点,在分析装甲装备预防性维修过程中故障类型多样的基础上,构建了装甲装备在给定维修周期内的使用可用度模型和维修保障费用模型,进而建立了使用可用度与维修保障费用的优化模型,提出了模型的解法和模型的改进建议。     

地面防空武器系统的效能评估模型

作战系统服务能力是衡量其作战效能的重要指标,结合现代作战系统的特点,运用排队论原理,建立了一种地面防空武器系统效能评估模型,确定了武器系统作为随机服务系统的主要性能指标,包括目标突防概率、目标杀伤概率、占用射击通道的平均数、射击通道占用概率和武器系统效率等。示例计算分析显示,该模型与外部条件和地面防空武器系统的综合特性密切相关,对辅助指挥员决策有一定的参考价值。     

使用检查维修工作模型的建立

RCMA是制订装备预防性维修大纲的系统方法,可用度是制订军械装备预防性维修周期的主要决策目标,对RCMA七种工作类型之一的使用检查工作建立了以可用度为决策目标的一般模型,举例给出了模型输出结果的特征和敏感性,对几种特殊情况进行了讨论,给出的模型可用于此类问题的维修决策。     

Minimum violations and predictive meta‐rankings for college football

This article presents two meta‐ranking models that minimize or nearly minimize violations of past game results while predicting future game winners as well as or better than leading current systems—a combination never before offered for college football. Key to both is the development and integration of a highly predictive ensemble probability model generated from the analysis of 36 existing college football ranking systems. This ensemble model is used to determine a target ranking that is used in two versions of a hierarchical multiobjective mixed binary integer linear program (MOMBILP). When compared to 75 other systems out‐of‐sample, one MOMBILP was the leading predictive system while getting within 0.64% of the retrodictive optimum; the other MOMBILP minimized violations while achieving a prediction total that was 2.55% lower than the best mark. For bowls, prediction sums were not statistically significantly different from the leading value, while achieving optimum or near‐optimum violation counts. This performance points to these models as potential means of reconciling the contrasting perspectives of predictiveness versus the matching of past performance when it comes to ranking fairness in college football. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 17–33, 2014     

A simple approximation for a multistage capacitated production-inventory system

We develop a simple approximation for multistage production-inventory systems with limited production capacity and variable demands. Each production stage follows a base-stock policy for echelon inventory, constrained by production capacity and the availability of upstream inventory. Our objective is to find base-stock levels that approximately minimize holding and backorder costs. The key step in our procedure approximates the distribution of echelon inventory by a sum of exponentials; the parameters of the exponentials are chosen to match asymptotically exact expressions. The computational requirements of the method are minimal. In a test bed of 72 problems, each with five production stages, the average relative error for our approximate optimization procedure is 1.9%. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

一种基于层次分析法的舰炮武器系统选型综合评价模型

针对舰炮武器系统选型配置决策中众多制约因素难以平衡兼顾的难题,本文基于层次分析法,综合了作战效能、全寿命周期费用、研制周期、适装性、技术可行性和发展潜力等多变量因素,提出并建立了一套综合优化舰炮武器系统选型配置方案的方法和模型,实现了舰炮武器系统选型配置问题的优化决策,最后以大口径主炮武器系统发展选型为例,给出了模型的应用实例。     

舰空导弹武器系统抗击能力评估

舰空导弹武器系统抗击能力通常会随着舰空导弹单次射击而发生变化,为增强舰空导弹武器系统抗击能力评估方法的实用性,提出了一种新的舰空导弹武器系统抗击能力评估方法,进而构建了舰空导弹单次射击能力评估方法。算例证明,本文提供的方法可以有效评定单艘水面舰艇上单个舰空导弹武器系统在作战使用环境下的抗击能力。     

便携式防空导弹反巡航导弹作战效能分析

采用美国工业界武器系统效能咨询委员会提出的 ADC模型 ,对某型便携式防空导弹武器系统拦截巡航导弹的作战效能进行了详细的数学建模和分析计算 ,并得出了计算结果。从计算结果可以看出 ,作为低空反巡航导弹的武器系统 ,某型便携式防空导弹具有较高的作战效能 ,在多发联射拦截巡航导弹时其作战效能还会有进一步的提高 ,因此具有大力推广的价值。     

地空导弹武器系统抗饱和攻击能力研究

通过确定地空导弹武器系统抗饱和攻击能力的重要效能指标,分析地空导弹武器系统服务每枚来袭目标的过程,建立了地空导弹武器系统服务模型。在此基础上,建立了一种基于MonteCarlo法的地空导弹武器系统抗饱和攻击能力模型,并对模型进行了仿真分析。结果表明,该模型可真实地反映目标流强度对地空导弹武器系统服务目标数、杀伤目标数和消耗弹药数的影响,可为地空导弹武器系统的运用提供有益参考。     

基于马尔可夫更新过程的装甲装备使用可用度模型

针对在装甲装备使用可用度评估中,采用统计评估法存在统计周期长和不能用于研制阶段的缺点,利用马尔可夫更新过程,建立了考虑工作时间、修复性维修时间、延误时间和预防性维修时间的装甲装备的稳态可用度模型,并进行了示例应用。该模型可以在装备研制阶段,根据装备各项时间参数的分布,来估计装甲装备的使用可用度,可为装备设计、装备维修间隔期规划等提供理论和方法指导。     

考虑运行故障的工程安全设施使用检查可用度模型

使用检查是发现工程安全设施系统隐蔽功能故障的有效措施。在考虑检查期间可能发生运行故障的前提下,建立了基于使用检查策略的系统可用度模型。应用该模型对应急柴油发电机的使用检查过程进行可用度分析,确定了其最优检查问隔期和给定可用度条件下的检查间隔期区间;探讨了检查时间和维修时间对可用度的影响。研究表明,该模型对于工程安全设施系统的可用度分析是有效可行的,其结果能够为维修决策提供依据。     

Survival and effectiveness of a weapon system against a superior force (guerrilla warfare)

Stochastic models are developed for a weapon system which attacks at a certain rate, but withdraws when attacked (guerrilla warfare). The models yield as output the distributions and mean values in closed form of the survival period and number of attacks made. As input are, for the weapon system, attack rate or amount of ammunition and time horizon, and, for the opponent, kill rate and probability of killing the weapon system, given the opponent has been attacked (strike back performance of the opponent). One model allows, however, for strike back also by the weapon system, when attacked by the opponent. This model is then used to determine, when the weapon system should strike back. The models are based on the Poisson and the binomial processes. Consistency among the models is shown and an example is provided.     

某高炮武器系统作战效能评估

某高炮武器系统是我军近几年装备的一种性能优良、技术先进的新型防空武器系统,在反空袭作战中将发挥重要的作用,计算该系统的作战效能具有重要的军事价值和现实意义。建立了计算高炮武器系统对空中目标毁歼概率的数学模型,给出了作战效能评估的数学公式,分别计算了某高炮武器系统用X波段雷达、Ka波段雷达、电视激光方式工作时的作战效能。     

战术防空激光武器发展概况

空中攻击与防空作战在相互斗争中发展,随着空中威胁目标种类变化、性能提高,作为防空武器的一个重要的新型分支,防空激光武器在快速发展,将在近程防空与反导中起重要作用。综述了空中威胁变化对激光武器的需求,激光武器的分类、组成与特点,以及国外战术防空激光反导武器系统发展概况。     

防空武器火控系统对空中目标参数估计方法仿真

针对防空武器火控系统的特点,提出了一种防空武器火控系统对空中目标参数估计的方法,可以在不知道目标距离的条件下得到目标的航向角与俯仰角,实现对目标的被动式跟踪,对估计误差的统计特性进行了分析,仿真结果表明了该方法比传统的估计方法更加可行.     

基于图像分析的弹丸“出膛时刻”检测算法

现代高炮武器系统在对红外目标进行连续性高炮射击时,首发弹丸的尾焰会对红外观测系统造成严重干扰,会导致红外观测系统短时间内无法观测到目标位置,带来后续弹丸无法精确打击目标等问题。利用红外图像分析技术通过对弹丸出膛时的红外图像特征进行分析,提出了一种基于红外图像分析的弹丸出膛时刻检测算法,从而相对精确地测定出首发弹丸的出膛时刻,为更精确测定弹飞时间和提高武器系统的命中率提供了理论依据和方法支撑。实验结果表明:提出的算法能够相对精确地测定弹丸出膛时刻,算法具有一定的可行性和有效性。