Design of follow‐up experiments for improving model discrimination and parameter estimation

One goal of experimentation is to identify which design parameters most significantly influence the mean performance of a system. Another goal is to obtain good parameter estimates for a response model that quantifies how the mean performance depends on influential parameters. Most experimental design techniques focus on one goal at a time. This paper proposes a new entropy‐based design criterion for follow‐up experiments that jointly identifies the important parameters and reduces the variance of parameter estimates. We simplify computations for the normal linear model by identifying an approximation that leads to a closed form solution. The criterion is applied to an example from the experimental design literature, to a known model and to a critical care facility simulation experiment. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

电液伺服系统的仿真与自校正PID控制器的设计

对一个试验用电液伺服系统进行了理论建模和仿真研究 ,引入了一个非线性状态方程模型来描述电液伺服系统的动态特性 .通过仿真结果与实际系统的响应相比较 ,验证了所建立的理论模型的准确性 .在此仿真模型基础上 ,设计了一个适用的自校正PID控制器 ,并且对其控制特性进行了仿真研究     

A supply chain design model with unreliable supply

Uncertainties abound within a supply chain and have big impacts on its performance. We propose an integrated model for a three‐tiered supply chain network with one supplier, one or more facilities and retailers. This model takes into consideration the unreliable aspects of a supply chain. The properties of the optimal solution to the model are analyzed to reveal the impacts of supply uncertainty on supply chain design decisions. We also propose a general solution algorithm for this model. Computational experience is presented and discussed. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Military spending and economic growth in South Africa

This paper undertakes an empirical analysis of the economic effects of military spending on the South African economy. It estimates a neo‐classical model common in the literature at the level of the macroeconomy and at the level of the manufacturing sector. An attempt is made to improve upon the model by allowing the data to determine the dynamic structure of the model through an ARDL procedure. No significant impact of military spending is found in aggregate, but there is a significant negative impact for the manufacturing sector. This suggests that the cuts in domestic military procurement that have occurred since 1989 could lead to improved economic performance in South Africa through their impact on the manufacturing sector.     

空投着陆缓冲系统效能评估模型

为了有效构建空投缓冲系统效能评估体系,研究建立了不同缓冲系统通用效能评估模型。模型综合分析缓冲系统作战能力与保障能力,建立了空投缓冲系统效能指标体系。在此基础上,运用效能评估ADC模型与AHP方法,结合指标能力量化准则实现对缓冲系统效能的定量评定。通过实例计算,验证了模型的正确性和有效性,为缓冲系统的发展论证与使用决策提供依据。     

Analysis of aircraft sortie generation with the use of a fork-join queueing network model

This article presents an approximate analytical method for evaluating an aircraft sortie generation process. The process is modeled as a closed network of multiserver queues and fork-join nodes that allow concurrent service activities. The model uses a variation of mean value analysis (MVA) to capture the effect of mean service times, resource levels, and network topology on performance measures including resource utilizations and the overall sortie generation rate. The quality of the analytical approximation is demonstrated through comparison with simulation results. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

1 This article is a US Government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.

Naval Research Logistics 44: 153–164, 1997     

The use of phase-type distributions in inventory-control models

This article investigates the use of phase-type distributions to model the demand process and the replenishment leadtimes in the standard reorder-point/order-quantity model of inventory control. Our main result is that the marginal distribution of leadtime demand has a discrete phase-type distribution with the same number of phases as the leadtime distribution, regardless of the complexity of the inter-demand times. This result leads to relatively tractable formulas for several standard performance criteria.     

Evaluation of base-stock policies in multiechelon inventory systems with state-dependent demands part I: State-independent policies

This article analyzes a model of a multiechelon inventory system. The exogenous demands form Markov-modulated Poisson processes. That is, the demand rates are functions of an underlying Markov chain. Each location follows a base-stock policy which is independent of the state of the underlying Markov chain. We employ the exogenous transit mechanism introduced by Zipkin [7] and Svoronos and Zipkin [6]. The transit times between locations have phase-type distributions. An exact procedure to compute steady-state performance measures is presented. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A Bayesian approach to demand estimation and inventory provisioning

This article addresses the problem of explicitly taking into account uncertainty about the demand for spare parts in making inventory procurement and stockage decisions. The model described provides for a unified treatment of the closely related problems of statistical estimation of demand and resource allocation within the inventory system, and leads to an easily implemented, efficient method of determining requirements for spare parts both in the early provisioning phase and in later periods of operations when demand data have accumulated Analyses of the model's theoretical foundations and of sample outcomes of the model based upon data on parts intended for use in the F-14 lead to conclusions of great importance to both support planners and operations planners Finally, of particular significance is the ability afforded the planner by this model to quantify the impact on inventory system costs of varying levels of system reliability or management uncertainty as to projected system performance. This will provide an economic basis for analysis of such alternatives as early deployment, operational testing, and equipment redesign.     

基于益损分析的鱼雷战术效能的海洋环境影响评估

针对不同海洋环境中海水阻力系数和声线传播的变化特性,根据鱼雷航行及自导过程中的守恒原理,提出了一种评估海洋水文环境对鱼雷战术效能影响的新方法,并根据海洋水文环境对介质参数的影响,结合战术效能益损评价指标体系,建立了海洋环境对鱼雷战术效能影响的评估模型。通过仿真算例,对该评估方法进行了仿真实验,验证该方法的合理性和可靠性,进而发展运用于鱼雷作战使用的海洋环境影响评估和保障决策之中。     

Minimizing the sum of weighted completion times of n-independent jobs when resource availability varies over time: Performance of a simple priority rule

In this article our objective is to evaluate the performance of a WSPT (weighted shortest processing time) rule for scheduling n independent jobs where the resources to process these jobs vary over time and a job can be processed by several processors simultaneously. This problem was raised by Baker and Nuttle [2]. A linear-programming (LP) model is formulated to obtain a lower bound on the minimum value of the weighted completion times. The purpose of the model is to provide a basis for evaluating the WSPT heuristic. 1000 experiments were performed using different resource profiles to test the performance of WSPT. Using WSPT, the weighted completion times were found to be, on the average, 0.2% away from their LP lower bounds.     

Design optimization for a launching system with novel structure

A launching system with novel structure using optimization method is investigated to improve the muzzle velocity of guns in this article. This system has two tandem chambers of which the front one is ignited first and the other is ignited after a while. The launching process of this novel system is modelled and a series of different schemes are simulated, to discover the interior ballistic performance of this novel launching system. In order to obtain the optimal loading conditions, an optimization model combined with the combustion model is established. The optimal schemes can improve the muzzle velocity by 20.6% without changing the parameters of barrel. It means that this novel launch system could improve the interior ballistics performance significantly and it still has considerable potential to be ameliorated.     

分布式网络环境下雷达网的网络性能分析

在分布式网络环境下,对雷达网的性能评估是雷达网对抗论证和战术研究的重要组成部分。从复杂网络理论的角度研究了此系统的组成、特性,提出了它的网络结构及性能层次模型,以全新的角度去解决系统的评估问题。对网络结构模型的信息传输能力进行了仿真试验。仿真结果表明,网络模型能够正确指导系统的结构组建及性能评估。根据网络性能层次模型,应用最优指标法,实现了该系统网络综合性能的量化评估。     

专家系统优化排列准则及时间估计模型研究

军用仿真系统中 ,专家系统作为一个决策软件包 ,满足整个软件系统运行的性能需要 ,因此研究专家系统的推理时间是必要的。专家系统的推理时间与其推理模式、知识库结构等因素有关。针对知识库结构 ,利用时间齐次马尔可夫链为专家系统知识库进行建模 ,并给出了相应的时间估计模型及其排列准则 ,从而可以研究专家系统的实时性。     

Why they fight? Reconsidering the role of motivation in combat environments

The current combat motivation model based on primary group thesis assumes that the main force behind motivation is peer-bonding or otherwise known as unit cohesion. Cohesion is perceived as an all-encompassing factor that leads to satisfactory (or unsatisfactory in lack thereof) military effectiveness and performance in conflict environments. However, the article identifies three main problems with this perspective: 1. mono-dimensional view of motivation; 2. motivation based on heteronomy, and 3. self-reporting bias. The current model does not consider motivation as a separate entity from cohesion; it does not place motivation as fundamental human value; lastly, it takes motivation as granted by-product of socialization. The article proposes a new combat motivation model based on The Self-Determination Theory. The theory maintains that human motivation requires satisfaction of three psychological needs of competence, relatedness, and autonomy. The degree of satisfaction of those three needs leads to different types of regulated motivations – a continuum from intrinsic to extrinsic – each of which has specifiable consequences for learning, performance, and well-being of an individual.     

Effective attacks in the salvo combat model: Salvo sizes and quantities of targets

This article considers two related questions of tactics in the context of the salvo model for naval missile combat. For a given set of targets, how many missiles should be fired to produce an effective attack? For a given available salvo size, how many enemy targets should be fired at? In the deterministic version of the model I derive a simple optimality relationship between the number of missiles to fire and the number of targets to engage. In the stochastic model I employ the expected loss inflicted and the probability of enemy elimination as the main performance measures and use these to derive salvo sizes that are in some sense “optimal.” I find that the offensive firepower needed for an effective attack depends not only on a target's total strength but also on the relative balance between its active defensive power and passive staying power. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Inventory policies with quantized ordering

This article studies (nQ, r) inventory policies, under which the order quantity is restricted to be an integer multiple of a base lot size Q. Both Q and r are decision variables. Assuming the one-period expected holding and backorder cost function is unimodal, we develop an efficient algorithm to compute the optimal Q and r. The algorithm is facilitated by simple observations about the cost function and by tight upper bounds on the optimal Q. The total number of elementary operations required by the algorithm is linear in these upper bounds. By using the algorithm, we compare the performance of the optimal (nQ, r) policy with that of the optimal (s, S) policy through a numerical study, and our results show that the difference between them is small. Further analysis of the model shows that the cost performance of an (nQ, r) policy is insensitive to the choice of Q. These results establish that (nQ, r) models are potentially useful in many settings where quantized ordering is beneficial.     

电液伺服系统的建模与仿真研究

研究了电液伺服系统的理论建模,引入了一个非线性状态空间模型来描述电液伺服系统的动态特性．并且应用了Matlab提供的模拟仿真工具Simulink实现了模拟仿真．通过仿真结果与实际系统的响应相比较,验证了理论模型描述实际电液伺服系统动态特性的准确性,为今后设计高质量的控制器打下了良好的基础．     

分布信号源的DOA估计

由于信号模型的偏差,传统的点目标假设下的DOA估计算法对分布信号源的估计误差较大,为此建立了分布信号源的模型,提出适用于分布源信号的DIS-MUSIC算法,并分析了该算法的估计性能。仿真结果表明,所提算法对分布信号源的DOA估计性能远优于MUSIC算法。     

Minimum violations and predictive meta‐rankings for college football

This article presents two meta‐ranking models that minimize or nearly minimize violations of past game results while predicting future game winners as well as or better than leading current systems—a combination never before offered for college football. Key to both is the development and integration of a highly predictive ensemble probability model generated from the analysis of 36 existing college football ranking systems. This ensemble model is used to determine a target ranking that is used in two versions of a hierarchical multiobjective mixed binary integer linear program (MOMBILP). When compared to 75 other systems out‐of‐sample, one MOMBILP was the leading predictive system while getting within 0.64% of the retrodictive optimum; the other MOMBILP minimized violations while achieving a prediction total that was 2.55% lower than the best mark. For bowls, prediction sums were not statistically significantly different from the leading value, while achieving optimum or near‐optimum violation counts. This performance points to these models as potential means of reconciling the contrasting perspectives of predictiveness versus the matching of past performance when it comes to ranking fairness in college football. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 17–33, 2014