维和警察警务风险管理刍议

由于联合国维和任务区条件艰苦,环境危险,维和警察在安全方面存在着很多风险和隐患。如何发现并排除隐患,最大限度地保证维和警察的安全,是维和警察管理部门亟待解决的问题。从维和警察警务风险管理概念入手,探讨维和警察警务风险管理计划、风险识别和评估、风险处理和效果评价等,以期对维和警察管理部门的警务风险管理实践起到辅助作用。     

情报与联合国维和行动研究

情报是用以降低风险、减少决策的不确定性并提供决策依据的重要工具,信息全球化时代的今天,情报主导警务、社会稳定甚至国家安全工作已经成为不可阻挡的趋势。通过梳理1948年至今联合国维和行动情报研究成果、针对性地总结情报实践探索过程中的经验教训,对维和情报的基本内涵及其特殊性、维和情报的类型及其获取途径、国际社会对维和情报问题的讼争、情报对维和行动的影响及其发展趋势进行了初步探讨。     

试论维和警察工作快速反应机制的构建

维和警察是一种高危职业,建立快速反应机制是维和警察工作发展、降低维和警察风险和公安外交工作的需要。分析建立维和警察工作快速反应机制的意义和快速反应机制的基本构建框架,提出快速反应机制的运行原则。     

联合国维和行动的发展及其面临的主要挑战

第二代维和行动维和行动数量剧增,规模变大;维和行动战略从“维持”和平向“建设”和平发展;维和行动由主要处理国与国之间的冲突转为主要处理国内各派别的冲突;维和行动职能由单一转向多元;维和行动部署方式由过去的“线性”变为“非线性”;维和行动的主体增加,维和行动组成日趋混杂。联合国维和行动面临着“强力”维和挑战传统原则;维和行动资源严重短缺;维和人员所承担的安全风险越来越大;维和行动的有效性难有质的提高;单边主义妨碍联合国发挥作用。     

中国维和警察防暴战术理论体系初探

研究维和警察防暴战术理论体系,以丰富维和警察理论体系,为维和警察在任务区执行任务提供理论支持。重点对维和警察防暴战术理论体系的概念、构成及应用进行了论述。     

中国维和警察特色理论研究

中国维和警察特色理论是中国维和警察学科理论体系基本框架的重要组成部分。对中国维和警察特色理论的概念、主体、特征、范畴进行了探讨,以构建中国维和警察特色理论的基本框架,为中国维和警察学科理论体系研究奠定坚实基础。     

装备保障备件需求预测算法

面对维和装备种类繁杂与维和环境复杂恶劣、保障维修矛盾突出的问题,必须强化任务开始前的维和装备保障备件需求预测。首先分析了维和任务特点,提出了维和装备保障构想;其次提出了维和装备保障需求预测步骤,研究了基于PSO-BP神经网络的维和装备保障预测模型;最后基于实际数据,采用实验验证的方法检验了算法的有效性。实验结果表明:通过基于PSO-BP神经网络的维和装备保障预测模型可以有效对维和装备保障备件需求进行预测,提高维和装备保障效能。     

做好国际维和任务中干部工作的思考

最近,我随军区维和分队轮换指导组赴刚果（金）,在协调指导军区第15、16批维和分队轮换的同时,就维和中干部工作进行了深入调研,并作了一些思考。 一、国际维和标准要求高、专业技术强,要超前培养人才。为遂行任务储备高素质的多面手 军委总部对维和人员选拔培养高度重视,2009年建立了国防部维和培训中心,持续开展培训,大幅度提高维和人员综合素质,目前派出的都是符合联合国标准条件的精兵强将。结合维和实际,当前还要侧重以下素质的培养。一要强化依法维和的意识。     

美国在非洲维和的经验教训及其启示

开展维和行动是实现联合国宗旨和维护世界安全与稳定的重要手段。作为联合国安理会五大常任理事国之一,美国是联合国完成维和任务不可或缺的,甚至具有决定性作用的国家。冷战时期美国的非洲维和行动在争吵和小心翼翼中进行,冷战后美国的非洲维和战略经历了积极主动向有选择地介入转变的过程,当前美国的非洲维和行动则是在崇尚自主的前提下推广美国特色的维和,以期最大限度地彰显美国实力、维护美国核心利益。审视美国非洲维和战略的演变,汲取足够的经验教训,有利于更好地根据世情和国情定位中国未来的维和战略。     

中英维和英语合作项目进展会议在武警学院召开

6月26日,中英维和英语合作项目进展会议在武警学院维和培训中心举行。会议总结了项目进展情况并就发展计划进行磋商。学院院长杨隽出席会议并为中英维和英语自学中心剪彩。 英国驻华使馆有关官员,公安部国际合作局、维和培训中心领导出席上述活动。     

Desert insurgency: lessons from the third Tuareg rebellion

This article provides an in-depth examination and analysis of the 2006–2009 Tuareg rebellion in Mali and Niger. It identifies the underlying reasons behind the rebellion, explores contrasting counter-insurgency (COIN) strategies employed by the two governments, and presents some lessons learned. While both COIN approaches ultimately produced similar peace settlements, the article argues that the Malian strategy of reconciliation combined with the selective use of force was far more effective than the Nigerien iron fist approach at limiting the size and scope of the insurgency and producing a more sustainable peace. It concludes by looking at the role of external actors, particularly the United States, and how the failure to internationalize the conflict was actually more beneficial to the local COIN effort, as well as to the longer strategic interests of the United States in the region.     

‘God willing,I will be back’: Gauging the Truth and Reconciliation Commission's capacity to deter economic crimes in Liberia

Recently, in July 2012, the high-profile and bitterly fought nine-month race for the post of Chair of the African Union (AU) Commission, between Dr Jean Ping of Gabon, and his main challenger, Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, culminated in the latter's victory. Her victory came after the deadlock at the Eighteenth AU Summit in January 2012. Borne out of the considered need for a quick fix through reliance on a vote of expediency, the election of Dr Dlamini-Zuma represented a political resolution to the crisis that arose due to the earlier ongoing electoral deadlock. Far from being a competitive election by design, the 2012 AU Commission election by default became transformed into an intensely fought campaign that put the AU in the limelight. This article briefly introduces the electoral process, explains in detail the voting behaviour of AU member states, and offers five specific reasons for the victory of Dr Dlamini-Zuma. On the surface the election looks very competitive, but the article explains why this is not the case. To create greater competition for these posts, the AU needs to overhaul the nomination process and the voting procedure. In this regard, the article proffers detailed analysis and proposes a radical revision of the existing criteria for the nomination. The article also proposes specific recommendations for the amendment of the rules of procedure of the AU Assembly to allow for a qualified majority as a deadlock breaker in the fifth round. It also assesses whether the integrity of the AU Commission election was damaged during the campaigning and voting process. In this regard, it recommends the development of a code of conduct for future elections at the AU.     

2015 and the survival of the Nigerian State

Nigeria is currently faced with serious domestic challenges. While the state is not officially at war, it is standing on the precipice, especially with the eruption of violence occasioned by the emergence of the Boko Haram sect and the tenuous peace in the Niger Delta. With the 2015 general elections on the horizon, fears of further violence and disintegration are rife, more so because of the debate over who occupies the Presidential Villa at Abuja. President Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, seems poised for a comeback even amidst the vociferous challenge posed by the political elites of northern Nigeria. This article looks at the different scenarios that might play out in 2015. It analyses the challenges of the survival of the Nigerian state, and makes some policy recommendations that Nigeria and its people need to put into place in order to ensure its survival beyond 2015.     

境外行政主体制度研究

行政主体理论自行政法成为公法重要组成部分时便成为行政法几个核心理论之一。自《中华人民共和国行政诉讼法》实施以来,行政主体理论研究成为我国行政法理论研究的重点之一。我国关于行政主体的内涵及外延,学术界各抒己见,至今缺乏统一的论断。境外一些行政法理论发达国家和地区的行政主体制度对于我们具有借鉴意义。     

The case for Azawad

Since Mali achieved independence from France, the marginalised Tuareg population of Mali has sought independence and the right to form their own nation, ‘Azawad’. These efforts have continuously been frustrated by the Tuaregs' neighbours, due to competing nationalist pride and interests in the mineral resources believed to lie under the northern Malian soil. Thus far, the Tuaregs of northern Mali have been largely neglected and denied both inclusive and effective governance by the various Malian governments from the southern Malian capital of Bamako. When negotiations have failed, Tuareg attempts to seize their own independence through violence have been brutally crushed by the Malian government. The Malian government will neither advance the interests of the Tuaregs nor allow them the freedom to pursue their own path in the world. The advent of the ‘Arab Spring’ in Libya provided another opportunity for the Tuaregs to pursue their dreams of an independent Azawad. Tuareg fighters returning from Libya carried with them both considerable combat experience and stockpiles of arms that they used to temporarily free their homeland. Unfortunately, the Tuaregs' whirlwind conquest of northern Mali was undone by the emergence of a new transnational threat in the Sahel. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) supplanted the previously victorious Tuaregs and attempted to turn Azawad into a Taliban-esque caliphate. French intervention defeated AQIM, but set the stage for a continuation of the cycle of violence and instability borne from the unwillingness of the international community to support the Tuaregs' legitimate right to self-determination.     

线性核时频信号表示及其仿真

根据ｃｈｉｒｐ信号在模糊域的特点,本文提出了线性核时频表示方法。这种方法在提高分辨率、消除交叉项以及抑制噪声等方面都具有较高的性能。理论分析和实验结果都证实了这种方法的有效性     

含孔洞铜板复合材料修复疲劳寿命数值分析

用ANSYS有限元软件对复合材料修复含中心圆孔钢板的疲劳寿命进行了数值分析。研究了孔洞大小、补片长度、宽度和厚度对钢板疲劳寿命的影响;分析了复合材料胶接修补的效果,并对修复所用的复合材料补片的大小及厚度进行了优化设计。研究结果表明,利用复合材料胶接修补带中心圆孔的钢板可以使其疲劳性能提高1.6~18倍。修补时,增加补片宽度和厚度都可增加结构疲劳寿命;补片宽度为孔径8倍以上时,增加宽度对疲劳寿命影响不大;补片的长度为孔径的3~4倍时,修复效果最佳。     

Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution

The surprising ‘Arab Spring’ raises the question as to what would enable national intelligence to provide high quality warnings prior to the eruption of popular revolutions. This article uses new sources of evidence to trace and explain Israel's success in comparison to US failure at correctly estimating the course of the Iranian Revolution in 1977–79. In explaining this variance, the article shows that it was mainly the result of the intimate acquaintance of Israel's representatives in Iran with the local language, history and culture, as well as the ability to communicate with locals – tools which the Americans completely lacked.     

Land power in the age of joint interdependence: toward a theory of land power for the twenty-first century*

This essay outlines a theory of land power. After explaining the absence of such a theory, the article establishes the modern context for such a theory, specifically within the concept of joint interdependence. The analysis defines key terms and premises behind the theory, to include a definition of land power. The argument then outlines the national elements of power that contribute to a theory of land power. The analysis next applies the theory to the fundamental purposes of military power: defeat, deter, compel, assure, shape and support to the nation. The analysis then tests key definitions, supporting premises, and utility of the theory. The essay argues that historical experience validates the applicability and utility of the theory, and offers a solid basis for extrapolating the validity of the theory into the near future.