基于加权网络模型的指挥节点重要度评估方法

指挥节点重要度评估是研究指挥网络可靠性和抗毁性的重要内容。通过定义加权网络节点重要度贡献矩阵,提出了一种利用节点重要度评价矩阵确定加权网络关键节点的相对重要度的方法,该方法能充分考虑节点的位置信息、邻接节点的重要度贡献关系;结合作战任务对社区的依赖度,设计了节点全局重要度评估算法,并利用该算法对典型网络节点重要度进行了分析,结果表明算法有效、可行。     

基于活动环路的作战网络节点重要度评估方法

在原有研究的基础上,将作战活动和作战活动间的关联关系抽象成作战网络模型,对复杂作战网络节点重要度进行更细化的评估。在利用环介数指标评估的基础上分析了节点间的依赖关系,考量了作战活动环路的大小,定义了影响作战活动效能的影响因子。还分析了OODA环的节点重要度,证明考虑依赖关系和影响因子的作战网络节点重要度评估更为精确。通过与其他的评估方法比较分析,证明了该方法具有更高的区分度,适用于评价作战网络。     

基于熵权的战场通信网络节点重要性评价

以旅级战场通信网络为研究对象,战场通信网络节点的通信量为依据,选取战场通信网络节点的数据发送吞吐量、接收吞吐量和转发吞吐量作为评价指标,利用仿真工具建立了战场通信网络的仿真模型和业务模型,通过仿真运行统计得出各通信网络节点的评价指标数据,采用熵权法计算出各通信网络节点的熵权,实现通信网络节点的重要性排序并进行了验证。计算结果表明:利用战场通信网络节点的通信量和熵权法能有效客观地评价战场通信网络节点的重要性,可为决策部门提供数据参考。     

基于熵权法和FMEA的舰船信息流网络关键节点识别

舰船系统作为一种典型的信息物理系统(CPS),随着其信息化程度的不断提高,CPS信息安全事件频发。现有针对复杂网络的关键节点识别方法多是针对电力系统网络,基于这些网络的评价指标难以应用于电力系统之外的CPS网络。针对现有的关键节点识别方法在CPS中的不足,提出一种基于熵权法和FMEA的信息网络关键节点识别方法。将有效影响范围这个概念加入失效模式与影响分析(FMEA)的指标定性中,利用熵权法对FMEA中的指标进行客观赋权。结合主观性较强的FMEA中的风险顺序数,以风险顺序数中的三个评估指标作为熵权法中决策矩阵的指标。最后,通过舰船保障任务信息流节点网络案例验证该方法的正确性和可行性,分析结果表明,基于熵权法对三种指标综合赋权后的排序比单一的指标要更加合理。     

节点重要度的网络抗毁性评估方法

为准确评估网络抗毁性,提出了一种改进的节点删除法来评估网络节点重要度,以节点删除对网络拓扑造成的边数和全网效率下降程度为节点重要度衡量指标。综合考虑了节点的连接度以及节点在网络拓扑中的位置,克服了以往节点删除法不适用于网络被分割情况的不足。最后,在节点重要度评估的基础上建立了网络抗毁性测度指标。实验分析验证了该方法的有效性。     

基于接近度与评价矩阵的关键机场节点识别

针对目前关键节点识别方法单一、难以适应航空网络的特点,提出了一种基于接近度与重要度评价矩阵的识别算法。利用改进的接近度算法反映节点在网络中的位置信息,考虑网络边权即航线流量,构建重要度评价矩阵,最后进行计算得到节点重要度排序结果。在建立我国航空网络模型的基础上通过实验得出:北、上、广以及位于网络几何中心且流量较大的西安等机场为关键节点。排序结果表明该算法能有效结合我国航空网络实际特点,准确地反映各个机场节点的重要性程度。     

舰艇编队协同反导网络节点重要度评估

为提高舰艇编队协同反导网络中重要节点评估的效率和有效性,提出了一种基于节点接近度和节点关联度评估复杂网络节点重要度的方法。在复杂网络中节点的接近度越大,该节点越居于网络的中心,在网络中就越重要;节点的关联度越大,在网络中就越重要。根据该方法设计了舰艇编队协同反导网络中重要度评估算法,仿真分析证明了该方法的有效性。     

基于复杂网络的卫星重要度评估

利用复杂网络对卫星重要度评估展开研究。将卫星抽象成复杂网络中的节点,分析了该网络拓扑结构的动态特征;基于卫星的运动学模型及可视性判定模型,给出了网络拓扑结构的确定方法;分析了网络节点、节点连接边及相邻节点的计算指标,在此基础上建立了基于灰色关联度(GRD)的节点重要度评估模型。仿真结果表明,文中模型可以有效评估卫星的重要程度,为作战决策人员提供理论支撑和技术支持。     

装备研制项目风险网络节点重要度评估

装备研制过程充满了各种不确定性因素,导致风险丛生。为有效管理装备研制项目的风险,确保装备研制项目的顺利完成,需要不断创新风险管理方法和手段。通过提取装备研制项目风险因素,采用解释结构模型法(ISM)构建风险网络结构,基于网络结构确定各节点的节点度、聚类系数和介数,基于DEMATEL方法确定节点中心度,构成四维评估参数,通过熵权集结上述参数,实现对风险网络节点重要度的评估。从多维度考察风险因素的重要度,能得到更为客观的评估结果,研究结论为基于重要节点的杠杆式风险控制策略的制定提供了决策参考。     

指挥控制网络中节点安全性重要度评估方法

针对现有评估方法无法全面反映指挥控制网络节点重要度的问题,提出了一种综合考虑网络机密性、完整性和可用性的节点重要度评估方法.考虑设备处理能力、存储容量和信道带宽,构建了指挥控制网络的加权网络模型;给出了基于层次分析法的节点安全性重要度综合评估方法;综合考虑攻击者利用被攻陷节点对网络机密性、完整性和可用性的破坏,基于重要性等价于破坏性的思想,引入拓扑势理论,分别提出了节点机密性、完整性和可用性重要度评估方法.最后,通过实例分析证明了该方法的有效性.     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.