国民经济动员潜力的多元统计分析

选取了国民经济动员潜力的14个总指标进行因子分析,计算出各地区因子得分,并据此对各地区进行单项和综合因子排名,然后用聚类分析法将综合因子进行聚类,得出各地区潜力情况及分类,并就地区潜力进行了分析。     

国民经济实力对国民经济动员潜力的影响分析

国民经济实力和国民经济动员潜力有着密切关系,国民经济动员潜力蕴含在国民经济体系之中,经济实力水平决定经济动员潜力水平。随着国民经济实力大幅度提高,国民经济总量增加和结构优化,对国民经济动员潜力各要素的影响越来越大。从总体上看,经济总量的增加和经济结构的优化,增加了国民经济动员的潜力;从各个部分上看,国民经济实力的增强,提升了国民经济动员潜力中人力、财力、物力、科技力等组成要素的动员能力。     

对国民经济动员中交通运输动员问题的理论探讨

未来高技术局部战争具有突发性强、作战范围广、对交通运输要求高等特点,要求交通运输动员能及时、快速地将国民经济中的交通运输潜力迅速转化为战时交通运输实力,保证军队对交通运输能力的需求。本文拟就国民经济动员中交通运输动员问题做一些理论探讨。一、交通运输动员在国民经济动员中的地位和作用交通运输动员是指为了应付战争和突发事件,提高交通运输应变力,组织和利用国家和社会交通运输力量,进行人员、装备、物资运送的一系列活动,其在国民经济动员中的地位和     

主成分分析法在军队财务分析中的应用

文章介绍了主成分分析的基本原理,论述了主成分分析应用于军队财务分析的可行性,并结合部队实际,对主成分分析应用于军队财务分析进行了实证研究,即通过选取合适的财务指标,构建出主成分分析模型,利用统计软件SPSS计算,得到综合财务评估得分,进而做出综合性评价。     

区间条件下有限制期的应急物资动员方案选择

分析了不确定条件下应急物资动员系统网络结构的特征,把应急物资动员问题抽象为动员点选择、动员点上动员量的确定和动员点到需求点的最佳路径调配等问题.采用区间数刻画动员时间的不确定性,建立了有动员限制期的应急物资动员方案模型,给出相应的求解思路和计算步骤.最后,以某区域突发事件发生后汽油类物资动员方案的生成为例,得到区间条件...     

轴辐式战备物资储备网络枢纽储备点选址初探

为解决分散式点状分布的后方仓库在进行战备物资保障时运输线路多、保障效率低的问题,构建了轴辐式战备物资储备网络,着重探讨了该网络中枢纽储备点的选址问题。首先介绍了轴辐式战备物资储备网络的结构及优点;接着探讨了枢纽储备点的选取问题,建立了枢纽储备点选址评价体系;然后通过SPSS22软件,结合统计数据,运用主成分分析法简化了选址指标;最后通过聚类分析法对储备点划分了层级,得到的聚类结果可作为枢纽储备点的选取依据。     

东南沿海地区军需物资动员研究

搞好东南沿海地区军需物资动员,是做好东南沿海军事斗争军需准备的重要手段。本文从分析该区军需物资动员存在的问题入手,提出了一些相应措施:搞好军需物资储备,增强军需物资应急动员基础;加强军需生产能力建设,打好军需物资持续动员基础;加强战场基础设施建设,为军需物资动员提供保障;搞好潜力调查,制订动员计划,创新动员方式,确保动员顺利实施。     

基于主成分的改进马氏距离TOPSIS方法

针对指标变量线性相关,导致变量协方差矩阵行列式(广义样本方差)为零无法应用马氏距离的情况,采用主成分分析法对指标变量进行线性组合,在不减少信息量的同时,得到少数几个不相关的主成分,由主成分构成的协方差矩阵行列式不再为零。依据降维后的主成分变量,采用基于马氏距离的逼近理想解法对五种预警机探测引导能力进行了排序,经检验其结果与实际情况相符。     

基于PCR的战时物资需求预测研究

需求预测作为物资供应的首要环节,是有效消除"需求迷雾",提升保障效能的关键.选取回归分析法作为战时物资需求预测的主要方法,分别构建了多元线性回归和主成分回归预测模型,并结合野战供水实例进行了对比分析.结果 表明,主成分回归模型不仅具有较强的可操作性,而且有较高的预测精度,能有效提升战时物资需求预测水平.     

全国餐饮制作业和食品配送单位动员潜力调查启动

根据国家国民经济动员和总后勤部“十二五”规划总体安排,为切实掌握全国餐饮制作业和食品配送单位的动员潜力,有效利用社会资源,更好地完成好多样化军事任务的给养保障,国家经济动员办公室、总后军需物资油料部决定,2011年组织全国范围的餐饮制作业和食品配送单位动员潜力调查。为完整、准确、及时地完成此次调查任务,国家经济动员办公...     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.