An analysis of degeneracy

Degeneracy in linear programming models has been analyzed for its impacts on algorithmic properties. A complementary analysis here is on what the solutions mean. The framework presented is couched in marginal sensitivity analysis, introducing concepts of “compatible bases” and “transition graphs”.     

Mean square invariant forecasters for the weibull distribution

Many techniques of forecasting are based upon extrapolation from time series. While such techniques have useful applications, they entail strong assumptions which are not explicitly enunciated. Furthermore, the time series approach not based on an indigenous forecast principle. The first attack from the present point of view was initiated by S. S. Wilks. Of particular interest over a wide range of operational situations in reliability, for example, is the behavior of the extremes of the Weibull and Gumbel distributions. Here we formulate forecasters for the minima of various forms of these distributions. The forecasters are determined for minimization in mean square of the distance. From n original observations the forecaster provides the minimum of the next m observations when the original distribution is maintained. For each of the forecasters developed, tables of efficiency have been calculated and included in the appendix. An explicit example has been included for one of the forecasters. Its performance has been demonstrated by the use of Monte Carlo technique. The results indicate that the forecaster can be used in practice with satisfactory results.     

The dynamic transportation problem: A survey

The dynamic transportation problem is a transportation problem over time. That is, a problem of selecting at each instant of time t, the optimal flow of commodities from various sources to various sinks in a given network so as to minimize the total cost of transportation subject to some supply and demand constraints. While the earliest formulation of the problem dates back to 1958 as a problem of finding the maximal flow through a dynamic network in a given time, the problem has received wider attention only in the last ten years. During these years, the problem has been tackled by network techniques, linear programming, dynamic programming, combinational methods, nonlinear programming and finally, the optimal control theory. This paper is an up-to-date survey of the various analyses of the problem along with a critical discussion, comparison, and extensions of various formulations and techniques used. The survey concludes with a number of important suggestions for future work.     

Requirements of an “optimizer” for computer simulations

Computer simulation has many advantages. However, one major disadvantage is that, in all too many cases, the attempt to use computer simulation to find an optimum solution to a problem rapidly degenerates into a trial-and-error process. Techniques for overcoming this disadvantage, i. e., for making optimization and computer simulation more compatible, are applicable at two points in the development of the overall computer simulation. Techniques which are used within actual construction of the mathematical models comprising the simulation will be labeled as internal methods, while those which are used after the simulation has been completely developed will be termed external methods Because external methods appear to offer the largest potential payoff, discussion is restricted to these methods, which are essentially search techniques. In addition, the development of an “Optimizer” computer program based on these techniques is suggested Although drawbacks to the use of search techniques in the computer simulation framework exist, these techniques do offer potential for “optimization.” The modification of these techniques to satisfy the requirements of an “Optimizer” is discussed.     

An application of servomechanisms to inventory

In recent years, some attention has been devoted to the application of techniques of control theory to inventory management. In particular, H. Vassian (1955) developed a model for a periodic review inventory system utilizing techniques of discrete variable servomechanisms to analyze the system in a cost-free structure. The resulting model is inherently deterministic, however, and emphasizes the control of inventory fluctuation about a safety level by selecting an appropriate order policy. Such an order policy is defined only up to an arbitrary method of forecasting customer demands. The present paper is a continuation of the model developed by Vassian in which exponential smoothing is used as a specific forecasting technique. Full recognition of the probabilistic nature of demand is taken into account and the requirement of minimizing expected inventory level is imposed. In addition, explicit formulas for the variance in inventory are derived as functions of the smoothing constant and the tradeoff between small variance and rapid system response is noted. Finally, in an attempt to remove the bias inherent in exponential smoothing, a modification of that technique is defined and discussed as an alternate forecasting method.     

A note on the causal relationship between defence spending and growth in Greece: 1955–93

The causal relationship between economic growth and defence spending has attracted considerable attention and has been the subject of many empirical studies. This paper investigates the existence of a causal link between military expenditure and economic growth in the case of Greece for the period 1955–93. By European Union standards, Greece allocates substantial human and material resources to defence. At the same time, Greece is the poorest European Union member facing chronic economic problems. Using the concept of Granger‐causality, the findings reported herein suggest that neither variable Granger‐causes the other disclosing thereof the absence of any causal ordering between them.     

BANKING ON NONPROLIFERATION

In the past decade, governments have increasingly relied on financial sanctions to counter the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. By targeting not only individuals and entities involved in illicit activities, but also banks that allow transactions to occur, financial sanctions were expected to stanch the flow of funds that support proliferation and compel compliance with international law—notably by Iran. Ten years later, Iran's nuclear program has advanced, calling into question the effectiveness of financial sanctions. Previous research evaluating the effectiveness of financial sanctions has focused on the impact of sanctions on the targeted country or on the enforcement of sanctions by the international community. Little attention has been devoted to their implementation by banks and government agencies. Based on interviews with US and European bank and government representatives, this article argues that the inefficiency of financial sanctions is due to shortcomings in training and information support from governments to financial institutions; governments on both sides of the Atlantic have provided little or no assistance to enable banks to identify patterns of proliferation financing and implement the sanctions regime. To transform financial sanctions into effective nonproliferation tools, governments need to play a greater role in their implementation.     

The danger of “hybrid warfare” from a sophisticated adversary: the Russian “hybridity” in the Ukrainian conflict

The term “hybrid warfare” is a new one that the West began to use to explain its failure to cope with asymmetric threats. Focusing on the war on global terrorism, the West temporarily withdrew its attention from traditional adversaries, such as Russia, which has used this gap and has audaciously returned to the stage as a global actor. Until the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and inflaming the Ukrainian crisis, most Western authors attributed “hybrid threats” mostly to non-state actors. But the Ukrainian scenario showed the true face of “hybridity” in the modern battlefield when practised by a powerful state actor. Russian “hybrid warfare” in Ukraine has already been seen as a combination of conventional and unconventional methods, that have been complemented with other instruments of national power – diplomatic, economic and information. The purpose of this article is, through an analysis of the Ukrainian scenario, to demonstrate that although the term “hybrid” is new, the concept itself is old and is a continuation of already seen doctrine from the Cold War era. Although “hybrid threats” can come both from state and non-state actors, the Russian interference in Ukraine is proof that they are especially dangerous for the West if, or when, they are initiated from a traditional, sophisticated adversary that has the capacity to use all forms of warfare.     

一种新的基于小波域的灰度水印嵌入算法

数字水印技术作为数字产品版权保护的一项新技术,已受到越来越多的关注.为保证水印的鲁棒性,利用人类的视觉特性,提出一种基于离散小波变换的数字水印技术,并给出了攻击分析.分析中,采用灰度图像作为数字水印,使其具有二维信号可视化的优点.实验表明,该算法能够经受住噪声、高斯滤波、压缩、直方图均衡化、增加对比度等的处理,具有较强的鲁棒性,是一种行之有效的水印嵌入方法.     

International armaments collaboration and the limits of reform

Budgetary pressures have driven a steady expansion of armaments collaboration projects internationally. This has also been the case in Europe where it is estimated that currently one-fifth of European procurement budgets are spent on collaborative weapons systems and the European Defence Agency has the long-term objective of increasing this figure by over 50%. The purpose of this article is to assess whether collaborative armaments projects can offer the benefits frequently attributed to them. To this end, the study examines the five combat aircraft projects that European states have collaboratively undertaken since the 1950s.     

舰用火炮对抗攻击过程的模拟与仿真

海上实兵环境下的舰炮对抗攻击训练,因发射实弹易造成误伤,一直被认为是难以实现的训练科目。而我系研制的舰炮对抗攻击模拟仿真系统,有效地将多种技术综合应用,创造了接近实战的训练环境;通过采用模拟交战的方法,较好地解决了上述问题。本文就该系统的组成结构、仿真过程与技术特点等问题进行了全面的介绍,并对模拟仿真训练系统的进一步发展提出了看法。     

The future of European defence policy: An economic perspective

European defence policy has been dominated by politics. This paper shows how economic principles can be used to derive guidelines for the formulation of European defence policy. The inefficiencies of the EU's existing defence arrangements are identified. It is shown that there is scope for efficiency improvements in the EU's Armed Forces and its defence industries.     

美军“作战信息中心”的概念、内涵及启示

自20世纪中叶,美军舰载指挥控制系统中频繁出现一个词“CIC（ Combat Information Center）”,由此,CIC作为舰艇中枢神经,几乎成为美军各型舰艇的标准配置。国内很多技术人员和参考书籍将CIC翻译成“作战情报中心”,这容易引起很多误解。注意CIC用词“Information”,不是“Intelligence”,一词之差、谬之千里,应该译为“作战信息中心”。侧重于对CIC的内涵进行剖析,试图揭示其内在的发展规律。 CIC的演化过程中蕴涵着美军在装备发展过程中的各种试错、实践、经验和教训,美军装备建设的严谨、求实和科学的成份,特别是其技术进步的持续性和连贯性,值得借鉴和思考。     

From the sociology of the (military) profession to the sociology of (security) expertise: the case of European national defence universities

Few would disagree that European militaries have experienced dramatic changes since the end of the Cold War. Much of the discussion on these changes to date has referred to the concept of professionalism. However, this approach became outdated as professions in post-industrialist societies entered a state of crisis as a result of growing competition from a variety of competitors. The present study adapts a new framework from the sociology of knowledge literature – sociology of expertise – into one, sociology of security expertise, which is suitable for study of contemporary armed forces. Its utility is demonstrated through analysis of five European professional military education institutions. The analysis shows that European military organisations are transiting, albeit in various degrees, from one form of social organisation of military knowledge production – associated with the military education model common to traditional military colleges – toward another, which is related to the military education model of national defence universities. Hence it is highly probable that European military organisations lose, either voluntary or unintentionally, their professional character and can no longer be unquestionably assumed to be military professions. Hence, they should be analysed hereafter using the sociology of security expertise framework.     

Round robin using the depth of penetration test method on an armour grade alumina

The depth of penetration (DOP) method is a well-known ballistic test method for characterisation and ranking of ceramic armour materials. The ceramic tile is bonded to a backing material of semi-infinite thickness, and the penetration depth of the projectile gives a measure of the performance of the ceramic. There is, however, an inherent variability in the results from this test method. In this work, the accuracy and the variability of the DOP method has been investigated in a round robin exercise. Six ballistic test centres took part in the exercise. A test protocol was developed, in which the threat type (projectile and impact conditions) and a procedure on how to prepare the targets were specified. The targets consisted of alumina tiles of two different thicknesses that were bonded to polycarbonate backing cubes. Two different 7.62 mm armour piercing projectiles were employed; one with a hard steel core and one with a tungsten carbide core. The projectiles and the other materials all came from single material batches in order to avoid batch-to-batch variations in material properties. These materials were distributed between the ballistic test centres. The test results of the different ballistic test facilities were collected and compared. There was not a lot of variation between the average DOP values obtained at each laboratory, but the variation in penetration depth between shots was high. The consequence of this variation may be less confidence in the test results, and a statistical method was used to evaluate the required number of tests that are sufficient to obtain an average result with high confidence. In most cases, the required number of tests is much higher than what is practically feasible. This work was conducted as part of the European Defence Agency-project CERAMBALL.     

Democratic control of Romanian intelligence after three decades: quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

ABSTRACT

Romania faced one of the most dramatic transitions from authoritarian communism to become a democracy and a member of the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). The backbone of building a democratic society has been civilian control of the military. This article briefly describes the norms and institutions of democratic control of the intelligence services in Romania and assesses how the mechanisms of democratic control have worked in practice after almost three decades of reform. We argue that many of the post-1989 reforms have been only superficial implemented and monitored, particularly after Romania joined NATO and the EU. The article concludes that the democratic control of intelligence in Romania is an unfinished business. There are structural shortcomings embedded in the process of democracy consolidation that need to be addressed.     

GSPN的分析方法及其应用

随着计算机和信息技术的发展,广义随机Petri网(G SPN)作为一种图形化的建模工具,不仅可以对系统进行形式化的描述和快速原型开发,而且由于其具有坚实的数学理论基础,可以对系统进行正确性验证和性能评价,因此在系统的设计过程中,得到了广泛的应用。基于结构分析方法、可达图分析和数值分析方法讨论分析了G SPN,并给出了具体的算例,最后讨论了G SPN的应用领域。     

推进干部工作创新发展的几点思考

贯彻落实"二十公"精神,结合实际工作提出了推进干部工作创新发展的新思路。根据北京市消防总队在推进干部工作创新发展中的尝试与实践,认识到必须从实际工作出发,把握消防部队的性质和特点,继续加强干部工作创新发展,走出一条独特的、符合部队实际的中国消防部队干部发展之路。     

Using multiple searchers in constrained-path,moving-target search problems

The search theory open literature has paid little, if any, attention to the multiple-searcher, moving-target search problem. We develop an optimal branch-and-bound procedure and six heuristics for solving constrained-path problems with multiple searchers. Our optimal procedure outperforms existing approaches when used with only a single searcher. For more than one searcher, the time needed to guarantee an optimal solution is prohibitive. Our heuristics represent a wide variety of approaches: One solves partial problems optimally, two use paths based on maximizing the expected number of detections, two are genetic algorithm implementations, and one is local search with random restarts. A heuristic based on the expected number of detections obtains solutions within 2% of the best known for each one-, two-, and three-searcher test problem considered. For one- and two-searcher problems, the same heuristic's solution time is less than that of other heuristics. For three-searcher problems, a genetic algorithm implementation obtains the best-known solution in as little as 20% of other heuristic solution times. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

From the Editors

Israel's policy of military reprisals has never seemed to follow any consistent pattern of tit‐for‐tat. On the one hand, not every violent incident was answered with a counterattack. On the other hand, when Israel responded, frequently it employed an excessive amount of force, which was disproportional to the Arab provocation. This behavior has not been the consequence of a premeditated and rational strategy. Instead, it appears to have been the result of a political dispute between alternative approaches regarding the use of military force. The following research analyzes the development of this controversy and how these differences of opinion were resolved.