俄罗斯国防工业"军转民"的经验和教训

国防工业“军转民”一直是困扰俄罗斯多年的难题。如何合理解决原苏联遗留下的庞大的国防工业,改变军事经济畸形发展模式,如何在新的市场经济条件下保证国防工业在先进的工艺基础上进行结构改革,如何保持国防工业科技创新和产业发展能力,形成军民品市场良好对接机制是俄罗斯复苏经济遇到的主要障碍,也是俄罗斯经济融入世界经济一体化过程中不可逾越的壁垒。     

从俄罗斯在叙军事行动看其对军品贸易的影响

俄罗斯是全球第二大军品供应国,军品贸易在俄罗斯政治中具有独特地位,是俄罗斯地缘政治中不可或缺的部分。俄罗斯在叙利亚军事行动前,军品贸易受到了西方制裁打压的影响。在叙军事行动,不仅为俄罗斯军品提供实战检验的机会,也为俄罗斯争取到军事技术合作的潜在盟友。     

透视俄罗斯国防工业特点及其发展趋势

苏联解体后,俄罗斯国内政局动荡、国家经济萧条、国防经费投入锐减,在这种百般困顿的“夹缝”中俄罗斯对国防工业进行了大刀阔斧的调整和改革,确立了新的国防工业发展模式。其中有不少可圈可点的成功之处和鲜明特点,并呈现出强劲的发展势头,对我国国防工业发展模式的选择具有一定的启示。     

重振雄风的俄罗斯国防工业

俄罗斯的军事工业是俄罗斯维持国力和国际地位最重要的经济部门,冷战结束后,由于得不到国家的足够拨款和生产定单,整个行业处于债务重重、生产大幅下降的困境之中。虽然进行过数次重组改革,但收效均不理想。改革不但没有提高其国防工业的科研与产品的竞争力、建立有效的运行机制,反而使其科研试验和生产潜力受到严重破坏,俄罗斯在高技术特别是信息技术领域,己与西方国家拉开了很大距离。为了在激烈竞争中保住军事大国的地位,保护其国防科     

分分合合——俄罗斯国防科技工业历经艰难改革

普京曾指出,国防工业是俄罗斯经济的火车头。这一方面是普京基于俄罗斯所面对的国际、国内环境的基本判断;另一方面在普京看来,富国强兵是提高俄罗斯国家竞争力的重要途径。俄罗斯国防科技工业管理体制和运行机制的调整改革基本贯穿这一指导思想。     

俄罗斯军品出口对国防工业影响的实证分析

为了验证俄罗斯军品出品对国防工业的影响,本文运用协整理论及Granger检验进行实证分析,得出俄罗斯国防工业是"以出口养军工"的结论.在此基础上,对俄罗斯国防工业今后的发展进行了初步探讨,以期对我国国防工业发展起到一定的借鉴.     

市场经济冲击下的俄罗斯国防工业

原苏联为保持其世界超级大国的地位,建立了门类齐全、规模庞大的国防工业体系。苏联解体后,在市场经济冲击下,俄罗斯将如何动作?文章在分析原苏联国防工业的特点和俄罗斯国防工业面临的问题的基础上,着重介绍了俄罗斯国防工业采取的一系列对策。     

“经济寒冬”下俄军费使用效果

受国力所限,俄罗斯难以与美西方展开全面军备竞赛;经济寒冬中,俄军费一直受国家经济能力的制约。然而,在与美国为首的西方长期斗争中,俄重点加强研制列装新式“杀手锏”武器,形成了俄罗斯特色的军事斗争战略,即基于“杀手锏”武器的俄式“不对称”军事战略。这种以“杀手锏”武器为基石的“不对称作战”军事战略使军费支出产生了效费比高、针对性强、威慑力大的良好效果。文章重点透视近年来俄罗斯国防科技创新、作战理念创新、战术战法创新的最新动态,进而剖析俄保持较高的军费效费比、成功开展对外博弈的重要举措和深层次原因,它们包括继承消化苏联大部分的国防工业基础、加快国防科技工业转型、强化国防科技自主创新、通过对外军贸和军民融合运筹军费来源等。     

S－300PMU－1反飞机及反战术弹道导弹防空导弹系统

Ｓ－３００ＰＭＵ－１反飞机及反战术弹道导弹防空导弹系统俄罗斯“国防工业出口公司”供稿张志鸿摘译一、研制历史５０年代苏联国土的防空网几乎都是以Ｓ－７５（即ＳＡ－２,盖德莱）和Ｓ－１２５（即ＳＡ－３,果阿）防空导弹系列为基础的。它们主要对付的分别为中高空...     

俄罗斯加强对国防工业的调整

俄罗斯加强对国防工业的调整刘忆宁１９９６年以来,俄罗斯决策层集中进行了一系列的军事改革,其中对国防工业的调整主要有以下几方面。一、调整国防工业管理体制由多个国防工业部门的设置转向国家综合部门管理。１９９２年撤消了前苏联部长会议所属的９个国防工业专业职...     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.     

线性核时频信号表示及其仿真

根据ｃｈｉｒｐ信号在模糊域的特点,本文提出了线性核时频表示方法。这种方法在提高分辨率、消除交叉项以及抑制噪声等方面都具有较高的性能。理论分析和实验结果都证实了这种方法的有效性     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution

The surprising ‘Arab Spring’ raises the question as to what would enable national intelligence to provide high quality warnings prior to the eruption of popular revolutions. This article uses new sources of evidence to trace and explain Israel's success in comparison to US failure at correctly estimating the course of the Iranian Revolution in 1977–79. In explaining this variance, the article shows that it was mainly the result of the intimate acquaintance of Israel's representatives in Iran with the local language, history and culture, as well as the ability to communicate with locals – tools which the Americans completely lacked.     

关于教师继续教育培训模式的思考

继续教育作为终身教育的重要组成部分和基本形式,对教师的发展成长意义重大。继续教育工作开展十多年来,取得了一定的成绩,但还存在不少问题,如学习动机较为被动,管理认识不到位,教学内容陈旧空泛,教学方法呆板机械等。随着课程改革的不断深入,继续教育必须采取相应的改进措施,树立以人为本,服务至上的观点,教学内容的前瞻性与实用性并重,教学人员进行整合,教学方法灵活多样,评价考核规范科学等,以此激活受训教师内在的学习动机,更大程度地提高继续教育培训的实际效果。     

用DirectShow实现网络视频

目前市场上的网络监控技术一般用昂贵的硬件设备来支撑,投资较大。在深入研究微软的DirectX9.0的基础上,提出如何用DirectShow软件技术和普通的数字摄像头来实现网络视频的监控和实现技术,内容涉及通信协议、视频的编码与解码技术、视频的编码格式和COM组件编程技术等,最终的实验结果令人满意,且费用低廉,技术可靠,为在高速局域网内构建视频监控系统提供有效的技术支持。     

Interpreting the Ribchester Helmet

In 1796 a 13-year-old boy playing on wasteland behind his father’s house in Ribchester, Lancashire discovered an assemblage of over 30 Roman artefacts, including a decorated brass helmet. Although partially corroded the Ribchester helmet is a fine example of a first-century AD cavalry sports helmet. This article considers how the interpretation of the helmet has evolved since its discovery. The multi-faceted iconography of the helmet with its mural crown diadem is that of an elite soldier and is paralleled in other examples of cavalry sports helmets of the Ribchester type. The long-neglected imagery on the helmet bowl is reinterpreted and seen not as a haphazard collection of randomly placed combatants but as a highly structured, symmetrical composition specifically designed to be viewed from different directions.     

Desert insurgency: lessons from the third Tuareg rebellion

This article provides an in-depth examination and analysis of the 2006–2009 Tuareg rebellion in Mali and Niger. It identifies the underlying reasons behind the rebellion, explores contrasting counter-insurgency (COIN) strategies employed by the two governments, and presents some lessons learned. While both COIN approaches ultimately produced similar peace settlements, the article argues that the Malian strategy of reconciliation combined with the selective use of force was far more effective than the Nigerien iron fist approach at limiting the size and scope of the insurgency and producing a more sustainable peace. It concludes by looking at the role of external actors, particularly the United States, and how the failure to internationalize the conflict was actually more beneficial to the local COIN effort, as well as to the longer strategic interests of the United States in the region.