解禁“武器出口三原则”的日本向何处去——日本近期防卫政策调整动向

2011年底大幅放宽＂武器出口三原则＂以来,日本加紧防务政策调整,大力扩充军备,发展自主国防工业,高新武器纷纷亮相,日本武器在全球军火市场崭露头角,日本自卫队作战能力远远超出＂专守防卫＂范围,其谋求对外扩张的野心昭然若揭,复活军国主义的步子越迈越大。解禁＂武器出口三原则＂调整防卫政策彻底放宽武器出口限制。2011年12月27日,日本政府决定大幅放宽＂武器出口三原则＂,为参与装备研制、生产和国际合作大开绿灯。日本官房长官藤村修称,＂今后日本企业将可参与美国、澳大利亚和北约国家的武器研制和生产,有助于提升日本国防产业生产与技术,     

声音

“中国政府在武器出口方面历来采取十分慎重的态度,一贯严格遵守联合国安理会决议,从不向受到安理会武器禁运的国家或地区出口武器。中国向苏丹出口的常规武器数量十分有限,仅占苏丹军品进口的一小部分。有关组织的报告是毫无根据和别有用心的。”     

解禁后日本武器好卖吗？

去年12月27日,日本决定大幅放宽基于“武器出口三原则”形成的禁运政策,这意味着未来日本将可能对外出口武器。众所周知,日本自卫队使用的本国产新式武器由于价格昂贵,装备数量很少。这其中日本武器不能出口,新研制的武器只能供本国使用,使得武器总产量低,平摊到单件武器上的研发成本和生产成本过高,即使是采用低利润政策,售价仍让日本政府无力采购。     

俄制武器买主增多

苏联在军火贸易中奉行国家和军事利益至上,出口的武器有近1/4销售给华约国家。冷战结束后,俄罗斯在武器出口对象的选择上则更加强调经济利益,通过调整对外军事贸易政策,实行全方位的武器出口战略,不断拓展武器出口市场,与更多国家进行军火贸易,使军火出口状况不断好转、贸易额逐年提高。经过几年的徘徊,俄罗斯又恢复了世界军售大国的地位。     

硝烟弥漫的全球军火市场

冷战虽然结束,但世界军火市场仍硝烟弥漫。美国一向呼吁各国控制武器出口,然而现在它自己却是全球最大的武器出口国。经济的不景气,使美国政府亦借助出售武器来振兴其国防及航天工业,因而近年对武器出口大开绿灯。1992年,发展中国家采购的武器装备中,有57％来自美国,金额高达136亿美元。目前全球十大军火商中,美国占了前9名,去年,美国光是出口空军装备便达340亿美元。     

军贸市场：出口竞争日益激烈

2011年9月22日,美国国会研究局发布了《2003～2010年向发展中国家出口常规武器情况》报告。该报告指出,全球武器出口总额继续下降;美国武器出口合同额下降,但市场份额上升;发展中国家依然是全球武器出口的重要市场,向发展中国家的武器出口相对集中在印度、沙特阿拉伯等少数国家。     

试论日本对美提供军事技术的开启

20世纪80年代起,由于"美国需要"和"日本能够",日本逐步开启对美提供军事技术之门.里根和中曾根这两位鹰派保守政客分别在美日执政后,一致对苏采取强硬对抗战略,美国明显加快对日军事技术政策的调整步伐,日本亦积极配合并松绑"武器出口三原则"的严格限制.在系列互动之下,日本对美提供军事技术政策在1983年出现重要调整:中曾根内阁通过"对美武器技术提供"的内阁决议,打开了"提供"通道.其后,日美通过签署相关"备忘录"和"实施细则协定",构建了日本对美提供武器技术的制度和程序.同时,日美还启动"日美装备与技术磋商"、设立"联合武器技术委员会"等机制,全面落实双方军事技术合作.20世纪80年代日本对美提供军事技术的开启,为此后日本对外军事合作及同盟转型的进展奠定了初步基础.     

防务动态

<正>美军工行业游说美政界放松武器出口政策美国【防务新闻】周刊1月18日报道,代表美国军工行业的多个游说团体正在美国政界加紧活动,希望奥巴马政府放松武器出口政策。     

近年来全球军贸发展态势解析

正2020年3月,瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所发布了新版全球武器贸易报告。报告指出,全球武器贸易规模呈稳步增长态势;美国继续稳居武器出口国首位,俄罗斯仍然为第二大武器出口国,但出口规模下降,与美国的差距进一步加大;欧洲武器出口占全球近三成,其中法国表现尤为突出,且未来发展前景看好。     

解读新版SIPRI全球军贸报告

正2016年2月22日,瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(SIPRI)发布了新版全球军贸报告。该报告对2011~2015年全球主要武器出口国、进口国及主要地区的军贸发展趋势进行了分析。与2006~2010年相比,2011~2015年全球武器出口交付额增长了14%,五大武器出口国为美国、俄罗斯、中国、法国和德国;五大武器进口国为印度、沙特阿拉伯、中国、阿联酋和澳大利亚;非洲、亚洲与大洋洲以及中东     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.     

线性核时频信号表示及其仿真

根据ｃｈｉｒｐ信号在模糊域的特点,本文提出了线性核时频表示方法。这种方法在提高分辨率、消除交叉项以及抑制噪声等方面都具有较高的性能。理论分析和实验结果都证实了这种方法的有效性     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution

The surprising ‘Arab Spring’ raises the question as to what would enable national intelligence to provide high quality warnings prior to the eruption of popular revolutions. This article uses new sources of evidence to trace and explain Israel's success in comparison to US failure at correctly estimating the course of the Iranian Revolution in 1977–79. In explaining this variance, the article shows that it was mainly the result of the intimate acquaintance of Israel's representatives in Iran with the local language, history and culture, as well as the ability to communicate with locals – tools which the Americans completely lacked.     

关于教师继续教育培训模式的思考

继续教育作为终身教育的重要组成部分和基本形式,对教师的发展成长意义重大。继续教育工作开展十多年来,取得了一定的成绩,但还存在不少问题,如学习动机较为被动,管理认识不到位,教学内容陈旧空泛,教学方法呆板机械等。随着课程改革的不断深入,继续教育必须采取相应的改进措施,树立以人为本,服务至上的观点,教学内容的前瞻性与实用性并重,教学人员进行整合,教学方法灵活多样,评价考核规范科学等,以此激活受训教师内在的学习动机,更大程度地提高继续教育培训的实际效果。     

用DirectShow实现网络视频

目前市场上的网络监控技术一般用昂贵的硬件设备来支撑,投资较大。在深入研究微软的DirectX9.0的基础上,提出如何用DirectShow软件技术和普通的数字摄像头来实现网络视频的监控和实现技术,内容涉及通信协议、视频的编码与解码技术、视频的编码格式和COM组件编程技术等,最终的实验结果令人满意,且费用低廉,技术可靠,为在高速局域网内构建视频监控系统提供有效的技术支持。     

Interpreting the Ribchester Helmet

In 1796 a 13-year-old boy playing on wasteland behind his father’s house in Ribchester, Lancashire discovered an assemblage of over 30 Roman artefacts, including a decorated brass helmet. Although partially corroded the Ribchester helmet is a fine example of a first-century AD cavalry sports helmet. This article considers how the interpretation of the helmet has evolved since its discovery. The multi-faceted iconography of the helmet with its mural crown diadem is that of an elite soldier and is paralleled in other examples of cavalry sports helmets of the Ribchester type. The long-neglected imagery on the helmet bowl is reinterpreted and seen not as a haphazard collection of randomly placed combatants but as a highly structured, symmetrical composition specifically designed to be viewed from different directions.     

Desert insurgency: lessons from the third Tuareg rebellion

This article provides an in-depth examination and analysis of the 2006–2009 Tuareg rebellion in Mali and Niger. It identifies the underlying reasons behind the rebellion, explores contrasting counter-insurgency (COIN) strategies employed by the two governments, and presents some lessons learned. While both COIN approaches ultimately produced similar peace settlements, the article argues that the Malian strategy of reconciliation combined with the selective use of force was far more effective than the Nigerien iron fist approach at limiting the size and scope of the insurgency and producing a more sustainable peace. It concludes by looking at the role of external actors, particularly the United States, and how the failure to internationalize the conflict was actually more beneficial to the local COIN effort, as well as to the longer strategic interests of the United States in the region.