2014年国际军贸年度发展综述

2014年,全球军贸市场出口形势总体向好,但竞争日益激烈;多国放松武器出口管制,发布武器出口促进政策;东南亚、非洲和中东市场需求旺盛,并希望通过军贸合作提升本土军工能力根据俄罗斯国际军贸分析中心的统计数据,2013年全球武器出口交付额创历史新高,约700亿美元;2014年有望达750.95亿美元,2015年和2016年预计分别为911.48亿美元和917.96亿美元;2017年有望突破千亿美元大关。     

美国航线扎堆亚太

历史和现实表明,航空母舰虽拥有强大的攻防能力,但并非战无不胜的“神器”;虽然它是美国力量和决心的重要博征,但并非全部,更不是唯一。     

美国“重返亚太”战略激起亚洲军备竞赛

在国际经济中心逐渐转向亚洲的同时,世界武器生产和军贸活动的重·心也开始向亚洲倾斜。当前,由于受经济危机的影响,美国和欧洲国家不得不大幅削减军事预算,而亚洲国家却是另一番情景。中国、印度、日本、韩国和中国台湾的军事开支占据了亚洲排行榜前五名,这五个国家和地区用于武器技术装备购买与更新的费用占到整个亚洲国家军事支出的近90%。在过去的一年里,上述五个国家的军费开支总额为2250亿美元,大约是10年前的2倍。其中,中国的军费增长幅度是每年13．4％,韩国为4．8％,印度为3．6％,日本为3-4％,台湾为1．8％。但从军队人数上看,中国、印度和韩国都进入了世界前十的行列。也就是说,这三国的人均军费支出相对就少。2011年,中印韩三国花费在每个军人身上的经费约为28,200～43,600美元,大致与罗马尼亚（29,100美元）和塞浦路斯（44,600美元）相当,而欧盟国家、澳大利亚和美国则分别达到了140,400、438,000和504,800美元。从中也可以看出,亚洲国家的军队结构仍然是“数量优先”。虽然亚洲国家的军事预算增长速度很快,但这并不能说明亚洲正在进行军备竞赛。亚洲国家之所以增加国防预算,一是由于本国经济发展较快,“兜里有了资本”;二是因为本国的武器技术装备过于陈旧,需要更新换代。国际研究与战略中心的专家指出,并没有直接的证据表明亚洲国家增加国防预算会造成本地区的军备竞赛和安全威胁,因此美国奥巴马政府的“重返亚太”战略有点“小题大做”。     

美国战略重点转向亚太

美国已经有了足够的理由将反恐战争推广到更大范围,已经使巴基斯坦别无选择地靠向美国,已经使印度体会到美国可能支持巴基斯坦,已经示威欧洲盟友,使美国再次宣示了自身在西方世界的主导地位。最重要的是,面对中国的崛起,美国可以以更有力更强硬的姿态出现,体现美国依然占据世界的领导地位。     

美国对外动武应遵循的原则

美国应制定这样一种政策,保护美国的国家利益,同时推广使美国变得伟大的价值观——民主、自由与人权。这种务实的理想主义政策是应对伊斯兰世界重大转变所带来的挑战与机遇的最好方式。     

美陆军2011年概况

2011年12月31日是剩余美军全部撤离伊拉克的最后期限,文章从战略环境、恢复平衡四项原则、改革与创新和未来发展趋势等方面介绍了美陆军相关情况。     

美国军费侧重亚太

日前,美政府正式向国会提交2013财年国防预算需求。根据这份预算案,2013财年美国国防总支出为6140亿美元,比2012财年国防预算减少约320亿美元。仔细分析这份提案会发现,美国防预算总数虽然略有减少,军费流向的重点却更加突出。该预算案承奥巴马新军事战略之衣钵,清晰勾勒出美军未来的建军方向：即战略重心持续东移,加紧对中国实施军事围堵。     

美国能否管住向右的日本？

安倍内阁执政以来,将日本推向右翼,引起包括中国、韩国在内的周边国家的担忧,也给美国推行亚太“再平衡”战略带来麻烦。对此,美国从总统到国务卿,再到战区司令和白宫发言人都给予了严厉的指斥,但日本并未因此有所收敛。     

‘It isn’t over until the fuel cell sings’: A reassessment of the US and French pledges of nuclear assistance in the 1970s

Based on newly declassified archival documents, the aim of this study is to contribute to an improved understanding of the evolution of the non-proliferation regime through an examination of US and French nuclear cooperation agreements in the latter half of the 1970s. The four pledges of nuclear assistance examined – US assistance to Egypt and Israel, and French assistance to Pakistan and South Korea – failed to materialise by the end of the decade. Why did that happen? What caused the four pledges to fail? We find that the 1974 Indian nuclear explosion and the emergence of opposing domestic factions on the nuclear front in the supplier states generated major changes in US and French nuclear export policies, and also contributed to the development of a collaborative partnership between the two competing nuclear exporters, on the other.     

Origins and Persistence of State-Sponsored Militias: Path Dependent Processes in Third World Military Development

This article uses a sequential mixed method approach to examine the origins and persistence of paramilitaries and state-sponsored militias in the developing world. Combining comparative case studies of Southeast Asia and the Middle East with statistical analysis, it shows that revolutionary decolonization produces more decentralized and localized force structures, while direct inheritance of colonial armies leads to more conventional force structures. Subsequently, the level of competition within the regional system influences whether a state can persist in the use of paramilitaries or must transition to a more centralized, conventional force.     

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON LOW NUCLEAR NUMBERS

President Barack Obama has outlined a course toward lower numbers of US nuclear weapons. Much attention has been paid to the US-Russian context, where deterrence is believed to be basically stable and conditions ripe for gradually reducing arsenals on both sides. But considerably less attention has been paid to the possible implications of lower nuclear numbers on other regions of the world and the reactions of both adversaries and US allies. If nuclear reductions are to be stabilizing and beneficial to security, reassurance and strengthened nonproliferation efforts in various regions need to accompany nuclear cuts. But the specific problems and remedies across regions vary. This article summarizes the results of a multi-author study. It concludes that regions with US allies and formal extended deterrence pledges may pose more vexing problems than those areas of the world without such close allies or commitments.     

美军装备维修改革现状与发展

近些年来,美军为有效适应高新武器装备发展需要和军事转型挑战,持续在装备维修领域进行了一系列深度改革。着重从维修思想、维修技术、维修手段和维修体制4个方面系统分析了相关改革现状,阐释了这些改革的动因、内容、成效和发展趋势。研究表明,美军装备维修改革促成了信息化条件下美军装备维修保障的新优势。     

SPEED BUMP ON THE ROAD TO GLOBAL ZERO

The prospect of the United States continuing to reduce the size of its nuclear arsenal to “very low numbers” has raised questions in Japan and South Korea, where US extended deterrence guarantees are premised on the “nuclear umbrella.” In both countries, however, concerns focus less on numerical arsenal size than on the sufficiency of specific nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities to meet evolving threats and on the degree of broader US commitment to these alliances. This article assesses developments in US-Japan and US-South Korea relationships in response to the Obama administration's nuclear disarmament policies, focusing on how the evolutionary course of those relationships may in turn condition prospects for sustaining this US nuclear policy direction. The analysis finds that the challenges of deterrence credibility and allied reassurance are difficult and long-term, but also that US nuclear arsenal size is secondary to broader political, strategic, and military factors in meeting these challenges. The evaluation concludes that strong alliance relationships and strategic stability in East Asia can be maintained while the size of the US nuclear arsenal continues to decline, but also that deterioration of these relationships could imperil core US nuclear policy and nonproliferation objectives.     

探析美国新军事战略

奥巴马政府2011年以来发布的一系列军事文件,标志着美国新军事战略的形成。文章依据这些文件,结合三年来美军在世界范围内尤其是亚太地区的实际动向,从战略威胁判断、战略指导方针、战略部署调整、作战指导思想和军事力量建设五个方面对新军事战略的内容及实施情况进行了分析。     

US–China military relations: competition and cooperation

ABSTRACT

China’s efforts to build a ‘new type of great power relations’ and a ‘new type of military-to-military relations’ do not constitute a major turning point in relations with the United States. Political relations set limits on military cooperation, and the two sides have been unable to construct a sustainable strategic basis for relations. This has contributed to an ‘on-again, off-again’ pattern in military ties. Trends show a pattern of frequent disruptions in military-to-military relations from 2000 to 2010, followed by an increase in interactions beginning in 2012. Nevertheless, obstacles on both sides are likely to limit mutual trust and constrain future development of military-to-military relations.     

BANNING BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS

The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) underpins the international regime to control biological weapons. The strength of the treaty however relies on national implementation. The first step for many states party to the Convention is drafting appropriate national laws and regulations. So far, 32 countries in Africa are signatory to the BTWC. More recently, in 2004, the United Nations Security Council adopted resolution 1540, which requires all UN Member States to put in place legislation to prevent the illicit trafficking of material that could be used to develop weapons of mass destruction. The need for such wide-ranging legislation is recognised African countries but its creation and implementation pose specific challenges.     

SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON THE SPACE RACE IN ASIA

Asia's Space Race: National Motivations, Regional Rivalries, and International Risks, by James Clay Moltz. Columbia University Press, 2012. 290 pages, $35.