战役野战油库油料输送力量优化分配研究

如何科学、合理分配战役野战油库油料输送力量是战时油料保障必须面临的一个实际问题。首先根据战役野战油库运油车分配模型得到一个运油车初始分配方案,然后运用计算机模拟技术对分配方案进行模拟,并根据模拟结果不断调整,直至得到优化的分配方案,为制定战役野战油库油料输送计划提供决策依据。     

直升机野战油料保障模拟优化研究

野战条件下,场站通常在前沿阵地开设野战直升机场实施伴随保障,其中油料保障主要采取飞机加油车先对直升机实施加油,后到野战机场油库领取油料这一方式进行。若将野战直升机场油料保障作为一个系统来研究,要实现适时、适量的油料保障,确定合适的飞机加油车及野战机场油库发油鹤位数量是一个关键问题。利用GPSSW语言对这一问题进行模拟,得出模拟结果并进行统计分析,经反复模拟和参数比较得到适合的参数,为部队保障提供依据。     

信息化条件下军队后方油库油料保障决策模拟研究

从后方油库油料保障决策模拟概念入手,分析归纳了后方油库油料保障决策的基本范围,在分析后方油库油料保障决策信息处理流程的基础上形成了模拟模型的总体框架,包括情况综合分析模型组、方案辅助生成模型组和方案评估与选择模型组。后方油库油料保障决策模拟数据根据不同划分标准,可分为多个类别,其主要来源有试验、训练或演习、战史或战例、兵要地志等多种。     

油料保障能力评估数值模拟方法

以战时油料保障作为需求牵引,提出了油料保障能力评估的思路,建立了油料保障能力评估指标体系和基于三角分布的数值模拟评估模型,运用Monte Carlo模拟方法对该问题进行了求解,并给出了应用实例。应用结果表明,该数值模拟方法能够较好地解决油料保障能力评估问题。     

充分利用成品油管道实现军用机场军民融合式油料保障

我军机场驻地分散,远离炼油企业和国家、军队储油基地,加之运输形式单一,战时油料供应保障与安全将面临极大挑战。成品油管道输油具有密闭连续、输送量大、隐蔽安全等优点,为世界发达国家和军队广泛采用。着眼深化军事斗争准备需要,积极探索利用国家成品油管道为军用机场输送油料,总部应积极协调,为充分利用成品油管道创造条件;有关大单位要大胆探索,开展油库利用成品油管道输油试点;部队应加强野战油料管线建设,做好战时紧急开设成品油管道支线准备。     

基于Delphi的油料装备战时维修力量模拟优化配置

由于战时存在一些不可确定、非可知和随机模糊因素,应用传统的数学方法或模型难以对油料装备战时维修力量配置问题进行准确描述或求解。以战时油料装备定点维修系统为研究对象,构建了油料装备战时维修力量优化配置模型,在忽略随机因素影响的前提下利用常规数学方法计算得到一个维修组配置的初始方案。通过选用Delphi 7.0软件对其进行模拟优化分析,确定了战时随机条件下油料装备维修组配置的最佳数量,解决了战时维修力量配置不精确、不合理问题,从而在确保战时油料装备维修保障需要的同时避免了资源闲置与浪费。     

野战机场体系布局韧性研究

野战机场体系是战时完成临时性、紧迫性军事任务的重要补充,合理的空间布局是提高其战场作战保障能力和生存能力的基础前提。为快速部署野战机场体系形成韧性布局,以野战机场体系最大化作战保障能力为目标,考虑野战机场的潜在部署点位、最大保障范围、作战需求可达性和建设资源总量等约束,建立战时随机破坏条件下野战机场体系韧性布局分析模型;设计以粒子群智能算法和蒙特卡罗随机方法为核心的求解流程,实现野战机场体系可行布局的快速求解和优化;以某典型野战机场体系为例,量化分析了不同空间布局方案对体系作战保障能力的影响,以期为野战机场体系的快速构设和作战运用提供决策支撑。     

地方油库征用MCDM评估方法及应用研究

征用地方油库是未来战争中油料筹措的一种重要方式,然而在征用过程中会遇到对多个油库进行选择的问题,在选择过程中,又要考虑被征油库各方面因素.MCDM(Multiple Criteria Decision Making)评估方法,就是针对多目标或多准则而进行的一种评估方法,其特点是概念清晰、计算简便、适应范围广,特别适合军事后勤领域的应用.讨论了地方油库征用MCDM评估的基本问题,建立了地方油库征用MCDM评估模型,给出了一个应用实例,解决了在地方油库征用过程中各评估指标之间不相容的问题.     

联合战役野战油库部署多目标优化模拟模型

联合战役野战油库部署研究的是如何对联合战役野战油库进行科学、合理、有序配置。以用油部队的满意度最大和战役野战油库的安全性最高为决策目标,提出了基于保障程度和安全性的联合战役野战油库部署多目标优化模拟模型,给出了一种模拟植物生长的求解算法,并采用优先级算法和模拟植物生长算法分别对实例进行求解,比较分析两种求解结果,得到了基于模拟植物生长算法的多目标优化模型的最优解,验证了本模型及算法的合理性、优越性和实用性。     

层次分析的模糊综合评估法在海军航空兵场站战时油料保障能力分析中的应用

介绍了利用层次分析的模糊综合评估法对海军航空兵场站战时油料保障能力量化评估方法。建立了指标体系框架,给出了评估的具体步骤。所建立的指标体系框架较为科学合理,解决了运用该评判方法准确评估海军航空兵场站战时油料保障能力的关键问题。     

基于规程匹配的维修作业虚拟确认技术

在建立了维修作业规程信息形式化模型的基础上,利用PAR语言将维修规程进行规范化描述,进而形成作业规程源案例库.采用混合相似度方法对模拟作业内容与源案例库规程进行相似度计算,将计算结果作为维修作业虚拟确认的判断依据,实现了维修作业规程指导虚拟维修仿真的目的.最后,通过实例证明了该方法的适用性和先进性.     

An integrated electric power supply chain and fuel market network framework: Theoretical modeling with empirical analysis for New England

In this article, we develop a novel electric power supply chain network model with fuel supply markets that captures both the economic network transactions in energy supply markets and the physical network transmission constraints in the electric power network. The theoretical derivation and analysis are done using the theory of variational inequalities. We then apply the model to a specific case, the New England electric power supply chain, consisting of six states, five fuel types, 82 power generators, with a total of 573 generating units, and 10 demand market regions. The empirical case study demonstrates that the regional electric power prices simulated by our model match the actual electricity prices in New England very well. We also compute the electric power prices and the spark spread, an important measure of the power plant profitability, under natural gas and oil price variations. The empirical examples illustrate that in New England, the market/grid‐level fuel competition has become the major factor that affects the influence of the oil price on the natural gas price. Finally, we utilize the model to quantitatively investigate how changes in the demand for electricity influence the electric power and the fuel markets from a regional perspective. The theoretical model can be applied to other regions and multiple electricity markets under deregulation to quantify the interactions in electric power/energy supply chains and their effects on flows and prices. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

装备液压系统污染控制建模分析

结合某型装备液压系统的结构特点,建立颗粒污染控制模型,具体分析了几个关键参数对颗粒污染度的影响,为液压系统污染控制理论的建立和完善提供了理论依据。     

Factors that affect the optimal amount of central control in complex systems

Whereas much of the previous research in complex systems has focused on emergent properties resulting from self‐organization of the individual agents that make up the system, this article studies one vital role of central organization. In particular, four factors are conjectured to be key in determining the optimal amount of central control. To validate this hypothesis, these factors are represented as controllable parameters in a mathematical model. For different combinations of parameter values, the optimal amount of central control is found, either analytically or by computer simulation. The model is shown to provide results that match well with the level of control found across a broad spectrum of specific complex systems. This model also provides general guidelines as to how combinations of these factors affect the desirable level of control and specific guidelines for selecting and evaluating leaders. These results indicate that all of these factors, though not exhaustive, should be considered carefully when attempting to determine the amount of control that is best for a system. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

进气口位置和进气体积流量对油罐油气惰化置换效率的影响

采用机械通风方式对油罐油气进行处理,具有安全性差、通风时间长和效率低下的缺点;利用燃惰气对油罐油气进行处理,可较好地克服上述缺点。在前期研究的基础上,设计模拟实验台架,以燃惰气为介质,实验研究进气口位置和进气体积流量对燃惰气惰化置换油罐油气的影响。     

基于油液分析的自行火炮装备性能监测研究

提出了一种基于油液光谱分析技术的自行火炮装备磨损故障诊断方法 ,该方法主要包括用于监测润滑油中磨损金属颗粒浓度变化的模型 ,并制定了各主要磨损金属元素的浓度和梯度界限值 ,并将其分为三个层次。同时将灰色建模理论引入光谱分析领域 ,通过拟合光谱仪分析的数据 ,掌握润滑油中磨损金属颗粒浓度的变化规律 ,进而对其浓度变化规律进行预测 ,从而达到对装备进行性能监测的目的。     

Designing safety space in a supply chain to handle system‐wide disruptions

In some supply chains serious disruptions are system wide. This happens during periods of severe weather, as when storms cause shuttle tankers serving oil platforms in the North Sea to stop movements of crude oil, barges are frozen in the Mississippi, or all airplanes are grounded after a blizzard. Other notable instances of system‐wide disruption happened after the attack on the World Trade Center when all aircraft were grounded and the natural gas and crude‐oil pipelines were tangled by hurricanes in 2005. We model a situation where shutting down supply facilities is very difficult and expensive because of excessive inventory buildup from an inability to move out the production. We present a planning model that balances the cost of spare capacity versus shutting down production when planning for disruptions. The model uses an assignment model embedded in a simulation. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

机动输油管线泄漏监测技术

机动输油管线采用露天方式快速铺设,容易发生泄漏事故。根据负压波原理,利用一种基于可变窗长中值滤波器的泄漏检测算法,在不降低检测灵敏度的前提下,能有效降低泄漏误报率。该算法在保证泄漏定位精度的同时,还能保持较高的实时性,较好地满足机动输油管线泄漏监测的需要。     

A linear programming model for design of communications networks with time varying probabilistic demands

In this paper marginal investment costs are assumed known for two kinds of equipment stocks employed to supply telecommunications services: trunks and switching facilities. A network hierarchy is defined which includes important cases occurring in the field and also appearing in the literature. A different use of the classical concept of the marginal capacity of an additional trunk at prescribed blocking probability leads to a linear programming supply model which can be used to compute the sizes of all the high usage trunk groups. The sizes of the remaining trunk groups are approximated by the linear programming models, but can be determined more accurately by alternate methods once all high usage group sizes are computed. The approach applies to larger scale networks than previously reported in the literature and permits direct application of the duality theory of linear programming and its sensitivity analyses to the study and design of switched probabilistic communications networks with multiple busy hours during the day. Numerical results are presented for two examples based on field data, one of which having been designed by the multi-hour engineering method.