On some stocxastic tactical antisubmarine games

Mathematical models of tactical problems in Hntisubmarine Warfare (ASW) are developed. Specifically, a game of pursuit between a hunter-killer force. player 1, and a possible submarine, player 2 is considered. The game consists of a sequence of moves and terminates when player 2 is tcaught or evades player 1. When the players move they observe the actual tactical configuration of the forces (state) and each player choosa-s a tactical plan from a finite collection. This joint choice of tactical plans determines an immediate payoff and a transition probability distribution over the states. Hence an expected payoff function is defined, Formally this game is a Terminating Stochastic Game (TSG). Shapley demonstrated the existence of a value and optimal strategies (solution), An iterative technique to approximate the solution to within desired accuracy is proposed. Each iteration of the technique is obtained by solving a set of linear programs. To introduce more realism into the game several variations of the TSG are also considered. One variation is a finite TSG and linear programming techniques are employed to find the solution.     

实施精品战略 锻造品牌期刊

期刊的传统风格特色是创办品牌、名牌期刊的基础,是其构成要素的一部分。要将期刊办成品牌期刊、名牌期刊,就必须把它过去的风格特色继承下来、传承下去,这是实施精品战略,锻造品牌期刊的基础和前提。论述了品牌期刊的价值构成及要素,并对如何培育锻造品牌期刊作了一些有益的探讨。     

The reliability of a series system of repairable subsystems: A bayesian approach

Consider the problem of estimating the reliability of a series system of (possibly) repairable subsystems when test data and historical information are available at the component, subsystem, and system levels. Such a problem is well suited to a Bayesian approach. Martz, Waller, and Fickas [Technometrics, 30 , 143–154 (1988)] presented a Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail (binomial) data at any level. However, other types of test data are often available, including (a) lifetimes of nonrepayable components, and (b) repair histories for repairable subsystems. In this article we describe a new Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail, life, and repair data at any level. We assume a Weibull model for the life data, a censored Weibull model for the pass/fail data, and a power-law process model for the repair data. Consequently, the test data at each level can be represented by a two-parameter likelihood function of a certain form, and historical information can be expressed using a conjugate family of prior distributions. We discuss computational issues, and use the procedure to analyze the reliability of a vehicle system. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Vertically restrictive pricing in supply chains with price‐dependent demand

We examine the behavior of a manufacturer and a retailer in a decentralized supply chain under price‐dependent, stochastic demand. We model a retail fixed markup (RFM) policy, which can arise as a form of vertically restrictive pricing in a supply chain, and we examine its effect on supply chain performance. We prove the existence of the optimal pricing and replenishment policies when demand has a linear additive form and the distribution of the uncertainty component has a nondecreasing failure rate. We numerically compare the relative performance of RFM to a price‐only contract and we find that RFM results in greater profit for the supply chain than the price‐only contract in a variety of scenarios. We find that RFM can lead to Pareto‐improving solutions where both the supplier and the retailer earn more profit than under a price‐only contract. Finally, we compare RFM to a buyback contract and explore the implications of allowing the fixed markup parameter to be endogenous to the model. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006.     

隧道火灾机械通风临界风速研究

由于隧道的半封闭性,空间有限,当长度很长时空气流通不畅,一旦发生火灾,烟气就会迅速填充隧道,而且CO等危险气体也会随烟气向隧道扩散,这对隧道内车辆和人员造成极大的危险。因此,需要保证隧道内空气流通状态的良好以及发生火灾时对烟气的良好控制。模拟了隧道口附近发生一定功率火灾的情况下,控制烟气层流动所需要的临界风速。     

关于学校定位的理性思考

每一所学校的建设与发展,都离不开先进、准确、合理的学校定位。学校定位的准确与否,直接关系着学校办学的前途和命运。学校定位对学校办学行为起着规范、约束和自我评估的作用。能否为自己的学校建设与发展找准定位,是衡量一所学校高层决策水平高低和教学工作水平优劣的重要依据。所以,要准确把握学校定位的含义、依据、内容及特征。     

学术论文摘要与关键词规范化浅析

摘要是从论文中提炼出来的语义完整的概括文章主旨的紧缩性短语的短文;关键词是从报告、论文中选取出来的,用以表示全文主题内容信息的词或词组。摘要、关键词是文献检索的重要标识,具有窥一斑而见全豹的作用。读者只要浏览摘要及关键词,便可了解文章大意,决定是否阅读全文。二者都是为文献检索提供信息或直接为某些文章所转摘。所以,应按照规范要求,把握摘要四要素,认真撰写摘要,准确选取关键词。将文献信息全面、准确、清晰地提供给读者,提高文献转摘率和被引用率。     

建筑火灾烟气蔓延规律对火灾探测系统的影响

分析了烟在建筑物内部的蔓延规律,讨论了烟气的蔓延规律、气流速度、障碍物及房间高度对火灾探测系统的影响,得出研究火灾烟气蔓延规律对火灾探测系统的可靠性具有重要意义的结论。     

冷阴极高阻抗相对论速调管放大器的模拟研究*(高功率微波专题组稿)

采用MAGIC 2.5-D模拟软件,建立了基于冷阴极发射实心束的高阻抗相对论速调管放大器模型。该模型由一个带屏蔽环的二极管,5个简单药盒型谐振腔和1个锥形收集极构成。为了给具有高效率的高阻抗相对论速调管提供实心束,同时实现设备的简单化和紧凑化,采用冷阴极取代传统的热电子枪,不仅易操作而且大大降低能耗和经费。通过在传统二极管阴极侧面引入屏蔽环,利用屏蔽极大地提高电子束阻抗,同时其位置和形状能明显降低非发射区的场强,并且有效改善阴极端面发射的均匀性。在束波互作用区,通过依次调节末前腔和输出腔的位置并结合导引磁场的大小对输出的微波进行优化,结果表明：在二极管发射电压525 kV、电流328 A的实心束及外加磁场0.35 T的条件下, 当注入功率为1 kW时, 在11.424GHz的中心频率处获得了功率81 MW,效率47 %,增益49 dB的微波。     

高层公寓建筑防火设计探讨

高层公寓的火灾特点不同于普通的高层住宅,其火灾危险性高于普通住宅。分析了高层公寓的火灾特点,并从消防车作业面、安全疏散、防火分隔、防排烟、灭火设施、内装修等方面提出了高层公寓防火设计应注意的问题。     

What Goes Up Must Come Down: Military Expenditure and Civil Wars

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of civil war on military expenditure. We employ two measures of military expenditure: the share of military expenditure in general government expenditure and the logarithm of military expenditures. We would reasonably expect a priori that military expenditure as a share of general government expenditure increases during a civil war and that such increases would taper off over the duration of a civil war. We also explore whether the termination of a civil war induces a decline in the share of military expenditure as a share of the general government expenditure in the short-run. We find evidence the of share of military expenditure increases during a civil war and falls in the year succeeding the end of a civil war, and, in particular, if a war ends in a peace treaty. The level of military expenditures, however, rises during civil wars and does not appear to decline in the short-term after the end of a civil war.     

Using stochastic programming to solve an outpatient appointment scheduling problem with random service and arrival times

We study a stochastic outpatient appointment scheduling problem (SOASP) in which we need to design a schedule and an adaptive rescheduling (i.e., resequencing or declining) policy for a set of patients. Each patient has a known type and associated probability distributions of random service duration and random arrival time. Finding a provably optimal solution to this problem requires solving a multistage stochastic mixed‐integer program (MSMIP) with a schedule optimization problem solved at each stage, determining the optimal rescheduling policy over the various random service durations and arrival times. In recognition that this MSMIP is intractable, we first consider a two‐stage model (TSM) that relaxes the nonanticipativity constraints of MSMIP and so yields a lower bound. Second, we derive a set of valid inequalities to strengthen and improve the solvability of the TSM formulation. Third, we obtain an upper bound for the MSMIP by solving the TSM under the feasible (and easily implementable) appointment order (AO) policy, which requires that patients are served in the order of their scheduled appointments, independent of their actual arrival times. Fourth, we propose a Monte Carlo approach to evaluate the relative gap between the MSMIP upper and lower bounds. Finally, in a series of numerical experiments, we show that these two bounds are very close in a wide range of SOASP instances, demonstrating the near‐optimality of the AO policy. We also identify parameter settings that result in a large gap in between these two bounds. Accordingly, we propose an alternative policy based on neighbor‐swapping. We demonstrate that this alternative policy leads to a much tighter upper bound and significantly shrinks the gap.     

Optimal control policies for an inventory system with commitment lead time

We consider a firm which faces a Poisson customer demand and uses a base‐stock policy to replenish its inventories from an outside supplier with a fixed lead time. The firm can use a preorder strategy which allows the customers to place their orders before their actual need. The time from a customer's order until the date a product is actually needed is called commitment lead time. The firm pays a commitment cost which is strictly increasing and convex in the length of the commitment lead time. For such a system, we prove the optimality of bang‐bang and all‐or‐nothing policies for the commitment lead time and the base‐stock policy, respectively. We study the case where the commitment cost is linear in the length of the commitment lead time in detail. We show that there exists a unit commitment cost threshold which dictates the optimality of either a buy‐to‐order (BTO) or a buy‐to‐stock strategy. The unit commitment cost threshold is increasing in the unit holding and backordering costs and decreasing in the mean lead time demand. We determine the conditions on the unit commitment cost for profitability of the BTO strategy and study the case with a compound Poisson customer demand.     

基于CAN总线的火灾监控系统研究与应用

论述了以CAN总线为基础的火灾监控系统的设计与实现方案,包括系统总体方案、系统硬件与软件设计,并结合实际工程对系统进行了实验研究。该监控系统可以方便地集成多种传感器和联动设备,在信息传输的安全性、准确性、实时性方面达到了较高要求,并且可以很方便地在此硬件平台的基础上实现分布式的智能火灾探测与控制,能满足大部分的监控需要,具有良好的应用前景。     

在C#中通过数据库实现树视图无级动态维护

就树视图与数据库的结合实现树视图的无级动态维护提出了一种解决方法 ,进而拓展了树视图的功能 ,使其能够得到更多的使用。     

冷阴极高阻抗相对论速调管放大器的模拟研究

采用粒子模拟软件,建立了冷阴极发射实心束的高阻抗相对论速调管放大器模型。该模型由1个带屏蔽环的二极管,5个简单药盒型谐振腔和1个锥形收集极构成。为了给具有高效率的高阻抗相对论速调管提供实心束,同时实现设备的简单化和紧凑化,采用冷阴极取代传统的热电子枪,不仅易操作而且大大降低能耗和经费。在传统二极管阴极侧面引入屏蔽环,利用屏蔽极大地提高电子束阻抗,同时屏蔽环的位置和形状能明显降低非发射区的场强,并且有效改善阴极端面发射的均匀性。在束波互作用区,通过依次调节末前腔和输出腔的位置并结合导引磁场的大小对输出的微波进行优化,结果表明:在二极管发射电压525k V、电流328A的实心束及外加磁场0.35T的条件下,当注入功率为1k W时,在11.424GHz的中心频率处获得了功率81MW,效率47%,增益49d B的微波。     

Capacity allocation with traditional and Internet channels

In this paper we study a capacity allocation problem for two firms, each of which has a local store and an online store. Customers may shift among the stores upon encountering a stockout. One question facing each firm is how to allocate its finite capacity (i.e., inventory) between its local and online stores. One firm's allocation affects the decision of the rival, thereby creating a strategic interaction. We consider two scenarios of a single‐product single‐period model and derive corresponding existence and stability conditions for a Nash equilibrium. We then conduct sensitivity analysis of the equilibrium solution with respect to price and cost parameters. We also prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium for a generalized model in which each firm has multiple local stores and a single online store. Finally, we extend the results to a multi‐period model in which each firm decides its total capacity and allocates this capacity between its local and online stores. A myopic solution is derived and shown to be a Nash equilibrium solution of a corresponding “sequential game.” © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

A modified block replacement policy

A well known preventive replacement policy is the block replacement policy (BRP). In such a policy the item undergoes a planned replacement at a sequence of equally spaced time points independent of failure history. The main advantage of a BRP is its simplicity, because under this policy it is unnecessary to keep detailed records about times of failures or ages of items. The main drawback of a BRP is that at planned replacement times we may be replacing practically new items. In this paper we study a modified BRP which is free of this drawback. We calculate the expected cost of following a modified BRP for lifetime distributions possessing a special structure and illustrate it for the case of an Erlang distribution. A numerical comparison is made between a modified BRP and a standard BRP for the special case of a two stage Erlang distribution.     

Orbix的分布对象计算性能分析

通过一个计数器的分布对象设计及Orbix实现,阐明了先进的分布对象技术标准CORBA的核心概念以及符合CORBA2．0标准的中间件产品Orbix的分布对象设计和实现过程,通过计算比较并分析了Orbix在单机和网络分布环境下实现效率的差异,并提出了用单机模拟网络环境下分布对象实现效率的方法．     

A continuous submarine versus submarine game

This paper analyzes, from a game-theoretic standpoint, the simultaneous choice of speeds by a transitor and by an SSK which patrols back and forth perpendicular to the transitor's course. Using idealized acoustic assumptions and a cookie-cutter detection model which ignores counterdetection, we are able to present the problem as a continuous game, and to determine an analytic solution. The results indicate that with these assumptions, there are conditions under which neither a “go fast” nor a “go slow” strategy is optimal. The game provides a good example of a continuous game with a nontrivial solution which can be solved effectively.