Dynamic multiattribute models for mixed manpower systems

This paper reviews a wide variety of manpower and personnel models of the goal programming variety. This is done from a strategy-oriented point of view addressing the problems of interest for immediate implementation as well as basic problems of manpower model research development. Particular emphasis in this paper is concerned with how analytical models can be brought to bear on the problems of combining military and civilian manpower into one management system. This includes a discussion of the computer support arrangements necessary to implement the models. First, we discuss an extension of multilevel models to provide an integrated approach to program planning which includes the dynamics of the manpower requirements-inventory relationships of mixed military-civilian manpower systems. Then, focus is given to some of the potential Navy applications particularly in terms of ways the outputs from the global multilevel model might be interfaced with assignment models for operational planning. The paper concludes with a discussion of static and dynamic multiattribute assignment models which operate on the individual man-job matching level. It is at this level of detail that dynamic mixed manpower systems might be constructed for use in equal employment opportunity planning and for local organization design studies.     

Short-term retrenchment planning in hierarchical manpower systems

We address the issue of short-term retrenchment planning required of organizations that are phasing down their manpower levels at rates faster than are allowed by natural attrition. Specifically, the problem we study is as follows: given the initial and target grade populations in a hierarchical manpower system at the end of a finite time horizon and the per-period rate of natural attrition for each grade, find a stationary manpower policy that minimizes the maximum per-period rate of retrenchment across all the grades over all stationary policies that yield the target grade populations at the end of the horizon. Because the problem is a nonconvex, nonseparable, nonlinear program, we develop a heuristic in which the promotion proportions of all the grades are successively fixed, starting from the lowest grade. We prove optimality of the heuristic policy in three nontrivial situations. In a computational experiment, in 135 out of 150 randomly generated instances (i.e., in 90% of the cases), the heuristic yielded a solution that was as good or better than that yielded by a benchmark computer program that solves the present problem as a nonlinear program. Further, the average computational time under the heuristic was an order of magnitude less than that under the program. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A multiple‐shift workforce scheduling model under annualized hours

Many manufacturing and service organizations in Europe have used annualized hours, also known as flexiyear, to successfully tackle seasonal demand. Under annualized hours, the employer has a certain number of labor hours available in a year and the employer can allocate the hours over the year according to manpower need. A problem in planning for annualized hours is the scheduling of the workforce over the year. We present an algorithm to generate an annual schedule for a scenario in which a facility operates one or more shifts and manpower need may vary from week to week. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 726–736, 1999     

Manpower modeling in cost effectiveness studies of usaf program to reduce the incidence of heart disease

Planning for a cardiovascular disease reduction program, soon to be initiated by the United States Air Force, has required an evaluation of its expected cost effectiveness. During the course of this evaluation, it was necessary to consider manpower flows and their expected changes in response to the disease reduction program. This paper describes several manpower models that were applied: a simple expected value equilibrium model; a cross-sectional model that considered the length of service of personnel; and a staffing model used to optimize the allocation of paramedics to the many Air Force bases of various sizes. The relevance of these models to the cost effectiveness evaluation is shown but the detailed cost effectiveness results are not presented.     

A manpower planning/capital budgeting model (MAPCAB)

A deterministic resource allocation model is developed to optimize defense effectiveness subject to budget, manpower, and risk constraints. The model consists of two major submodels connected by a heuristic. The first is a mathematical program which optimizes the multiperiod weapon mix subject to the constraint set. The second is a manpower supply model based on a transition matrix in which individual transitions are functions of personnel related budgets and historical transition rates. The heuristic marries the submodels through an iterative process leading to improved solutions. An example is provided which demonstrates how systems are undercosted and overprocured if manpower supply is not properly reflected relative to manpower demand.     

Mapping Out a Counterinsurgency Campaign Plan: Critical Considerations in Counterinsurgency Campaigning1

This paper argues on the basis of a series of historical examples that include the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaya and Northern Ireland, that there is no perfect counterinsurgency model and that each counterinsurgency campaign is different. Counterinsurgents need to have a series of basic tenets to wage successful war against guerrillas and insurgents. These include: a clear political policy from the government under insurgent attack, a strategy to keep the population safe, successful intelligence gathering, a recognition that successful counterinsurgency is manpower intensive and a high priority on the destruction of the insurgent infrastructure. This paper urges that in period of peacetime it is essential that militaries develop a Standing Counterinsurgency Concepts Unit that can conceptualise past and present insurgent patterns and build this into military and strategic planning.     

Unbalanced production line scheduling with partial job specialization

This article presents a mathematical model for manpower scheduling for unbalanced production lines in order to minimize in-process inventory cost. The model extends prior work by adding workers' skill limitations to the system. The model is formulated for a one-period schedule and then extended for multiperiod schedules. An example problem is solved for both single and multiperiods. A heuristic algorithm is also presented for multiperiod and large-scale problems, and computational experiences are reported.     

Country survey III — Defence spending in West Germany

This survey article deals with defence spending in West Germany from 1960 on, and the resulting manpower levels and major weapons of the Federal Armed forces, focusing on macro‐economic aspects. Statistics compiled from a variety of published and unpublished sources are presented in 16 tables. An econometric defence‐spending function is derived for the period. For comparison, the equivalent data of East Germany from the last years is also presented. The small set of developments in the next few years that can be predicted firmly are discussed.     

兵力展开问题研究

如何将基地的兵力以最短时间展开到多个阵地中,是运输问题中的一种。为解决此问题对著名的兵力展开问题进行了研究。建立了兵力展开问题的数学模型,此模型是一个混合整数规划模型。提出了一种求解方法,该方法可解决类似的混合整数规划问题。最后给出了一个实例。     

一种地对空攻击武器的追及与跟踪方法

针对一种地对空武器在接到雷达跟踪指令时,由战斗准备状态追及目标、跟踪目标,直至跟踪射程区域外,或由雷达重新下达指令进入战斗准备状态的轨迹规划方法.轨迹规划中不仅考虑了系统最大速度的限制,同时还考虑了武器系统抗最大加速度的指标要求,在约束条件下规划追及过程,实现最优规划的计算方法.主要介绍了模糊追及和跟踪的计算规划方法,具有一定的实际意义.     

敏捷成像卫星自主规划模型与算法

针对敏捷成像卫星自主规划问题,将规划、决策、执行和信息反馈相结合,提出星上自主规划框架,并介绍框架结构和模块功能。在分析主要约束条件的基础上,建立基于时间线约束网络的问题模型。通过将各种卫星动作前后衔接,组合成能够完成不同任务的动作序列,提出一种面向卫星动作序列的启发式算法。该算法分为规划和决策两个部分,并在卫星执行每一个动作序列的同时基于多种启发式规则进行规划,在动作序列执行结束时进行决策。实验结果表明了自主规划框架和模型的合理性以及算法的有效性。     

使用保障资源的确定方法探讨

在使用保障过程中需要9项使用保障资源,包括人力与人员、保障设备、技术资料、训练与训练保障、计算机资源保障、保障设施、储存和运输、能源、弹药等。其中人力与人员、使用保障设备2项内容与使用保障联系最为紧密,在装备的研制阶段就应考虑确定。主要讨论了用相似系统法确定人力与人员的数量,用排队论确定保障设备的品种和数量。     

An historical review of US defense strategy from Vietnam to operation Iraqi freedom

Facing nearly half a billion dollars in spending cuts over the next five years, US defense planners and strategists must simultaneously rebuild a war-weary Army weakened from over a decade of war, build new sea and air capabilities for the Pacific theater, and reduce manpower, procurement, and contractor budgets while promoting innovation. The US defense department is embarking on what may be the most sweeping period of defense transformation in recent memory. This article reviews the history of American defense transformation, focusing on an important but largely overlooked period of military innovation that began in the shadow of Vietnam and ended with troops fighting through blinding sandstorms at night on the road to Baghdad. The multifaceted transformation strategy conceived in the 1970s paved the way for a military revolution in the 1990s and enabled unprecedented battlefield adaptation in the 2000s. After reviewing the revolutionary changes that led to American dominance in conventional warfare in the 1990s, the article examines US transformation policies in the 2000s to inform defense strategy and planning efforts in the 2010s.     

试论战略数据规划及其概念基础

讨论了当前人们对数据规划概念的不同理解 ,在分析信息、系统等概念的基础上 ,提出了一个明确的面向整个组织的数据规划概念 ,给出了一种基于这一概念的新的数据规划方法的框架。     

一类马尔可夫人才系统中的工龄和职龄

用马尔可夫模型研究人才系统中工龄和职龄问题的一般方法都要按职务等级、工龄或职龄来划分系统状态。本文在只以职务等级划分系统状态的一类无降级且逐级晋升的齐次马尔可夫人才系统中讨论了工龄和职龄问题,得到直观描述工龄和职龄的计算结果,并通过一实例说明了本方法的应用价值。     

一种能考虑动升力影响的高速艇迎浪纵向运动的数学模型

根据高速艇在静水及波浪中运动的特点,提出了高速艇迎浪纵向运动的基本假设,建立了能考虑动升力影响的高速艇迎浪纵向运动基本方程,并提出了高速艇迎浪纵向运动预报的一种新方法(滑航法),编制了理论预报程序,进行了模型试验验证研究.结果表明,中高航速时,滑航法可用于高速艇迎浪纵向运动的预报.     

基于几何算法的水下航行器路径规划

在分析水下航行器路径规划影响因素及主要障碍物特点的基础上,提出了一种基于几何算法的水下航行器路径规划算法,并采用该算法对障碍物进行建模和路径规划研究,解决了水下航行器航经多障碍物海区的路径规划问题.最后,通过仿真试验验证了该算法的准确性与可行性.     

驱护舰编队对海作战中舰载无人机任务规划

任务规划是舰载无人机作战使用的基础。根据舰载无人机作战性能特点,从作战使用的角度对舰载无人机任务规划的概念进行了诠释,提出将舰载无人机的任务规划区分为战术规划和航迹规划,给出了舰载无人机任务规划应遵循的原则以及任务规划的内容和步骤,提出了舰载无人机在驱护舰编队对海作战中可遂行的战术任务。     

信号时序逻辑约束下基于终点回溯的高效规划

在信号时序逻辑约束下规划路径是一项具有挑战性的任务,其计算量非常高.提出了一种终点回溯的规划方法,它是一种适用于连续时间系统的抽象化方法.该规划方法分为离线构建阶段和在线规划阶段.离线构建阶段在Transducer理论的指导下,从能够完成任务的合理的终点构造一棵快速随机搜索树,向初始状态空间进行回溯.当采样点足够多时,...     

驱护舰编队对海作战中舰载无人机任务规划

摘 要：任务规划是舰载无人机作战使用的基础。根据舰载无人机作战性能特点,从作战使用的角度对舰载无人机任务规划的概念进行了诠释,提出将舰载无人机的任务规划区分为战术规划和航迹规划,给出了舰载无人机任务规划应遵循的原则以及任务规划的内容和步骤,提出了舰载无人机在驱护舰编队对海作战中可遂行的战术任务。