全球化时代的移民与国家安全：风险评估及其控制

移民具有经济、社会、政治等多重属性,其对国家安全的影响也涉及多个领域,且具有很强的不确定性。而地缘政治地位关键、领土存在国际争议、非劳动力要素供给缺乏弹性、族群认同超越国家认同和政府履行社会管理职能存在结构性缺陷等条件变量的作用,会显著增加移民的安全风险。这意味着控制移民安全风险的关键在于抑制或消除这些条件变量的作用。     

Sweden and the issue of NATO membership: exploring a public opinion paradox

The past decade has seen substantial shifts in Swedish security policy and major change in the domestic debate about NATO. For the first time, all of the right-of-centre “alliance parties” are calling for a full NATO membership, and popular support for NATO has increased. Yet public opinion contains ambiguities and paradoxes that complicate the picture. At the same time as support for NATO has increased, the public is overwhelmingly for continued military non-alignment. Drawing on previous research, longitudinal data from national surveys, and other sources on defence and security issues, this article aims to increase our understanding of the development and change in Swedish public opinion on NATO. A key argument is that Erving Goffman’s theatre metaphor, combined with neo-institutional decoupling theory, to a large degree can help understand the public opinion paradox.     

The national defense function and federalism: the importance of the 2008 National Defense Authorization Act

Countries with a federalist system of government have different arrangements for providing national security. US national security is provided by national and State defense forces. The quintessential national function – national defense – experienced some changes that enhanced the role of the States. Policy changes in the National Defense Authorization Act of 2008 (2008 NDAA) introduced new roles for the Governors and the State defense forces, or the National Guard. This article explores how the interests of Congress and States aligned in the 2008 NDAA such that the national defense function changed. This article finds that the national government continues to have the central coordinating role, but that the politics and provisions of the 2008 NDAA changed the national–State relationship in mission, decision-making, and command and control so that US federalism in the national defense function is evolving in unexpected ways.     

Visions of the Enemy from the Field and from Abroad: Revisiting CIA and Military Expectations of the Tet Offensive

As the January 1968 Tet holiday approached, CIA analysts and American commanders in South Vietnam developed more accurate conclusions about communist military strategy than did intelligence analysts at CIA headquarters. Besides valuing different types of intelligence, General William Westmoreland, Lieutenant General Frederick Weyand, and CIA analysts in Saigon also placed greater emphasis on new information about communist military strategy than did CIA analysts at Langley. These different reactions to information highlight reasons why military commanders and intelligence analysts stationed in the theater of operations might develop more accurate conclusions about enemy military strategy than intelligence analysts stationed at their national headquarters.     

从评价系统看小说人物刻画——以《傲慢与偏见》的两封信为例

本文以系统功能和评价系统理论为依据,分析《傲慢与偏见》中两封信的表现态度系统的语义资源。经过分析笔者发现两封信截然不同的语言表达方式是小说中不同人物性格的外在表现。小说是很好的语言学习材料,我们在分析小说的同时,也让我们欣赏到了作者刻画小说人物的精湛处理。     

The Tacit Evolution of Coordination and Strategic Outcomes in Highly Fragmented Insurgencies: Evidence from the Soviet War in Afghanistan

Highly fragmented insurgencies often lack explicit coordination mechanisms such as plans, direct means of communication, or hierarchical organization. Many such insurgencies nevertheless obtain a high degree of coordination that produces strategic-level effects. This article presents a theory of how coordination can emerge tacitly in highly fragmented insurgencies, and how this can produce strategic-level effects. Strategic effects emerge through a combination of complementary and supplementary tactical-level actions between commonly positioned insurgent groups. The theory is then tested again evidence from the Soviet–Afghan War. The evidence presented shows that some of the Mujahidin's strategic-level effectiveness was produced through tacit coordination.     

多民族地区受教育程度、国家通用语言能力对劳动者收入的影响分析——基于中介效应视角分析

研究基于中国综合社会调查2010年及2017年的微观数据,运用中介模型对七个多民族地区劳动者国家通用语言能力在受教育程度对其收入影响中的中介效应进行分析。得出在受教育程度对个体收入的正向影响中,国家通用语言能力起到部分中介作用,对劳动者收入有明显促进作用,且随着多民族地区经济发展以及推普工作的开展,国家通用语言能力对个体收入的正向影响力有所减弱,受教育程度对个体收入的正向影响力有所增强。因此应注重通过提升劳动者国家通用语言能力促进多民族地区经济发展,持续重视国家通用语言能力在多民族地区劳动者就业能力中的基础性作用以及为其带来的经济收益。     

The long term effects of an aging fleet on operational availability and cost: evidence from the U.S. coast guard

This paper empirically examines whether the aging of a fleet affects operational availability and operating cost using a unique data-set on the 117 47-foot Motor Lifeboats (MLBs) of the United States Coast Guard (USCG). Procured from 1997 to 2003, the 47-foot MLB is the standard lifeboat of the USCG and all 117 MLBs remain in service. The aging of the MLB fleet has resulted in higher annual operating costs and lower operational availability, although the nature of this relationship remains unclear. Our estimation strategy utilizes an error components estimator to examine these issues. We employ three variants of the dependent variables (i.e. the standard logarithmic transformation as is most commonly seen in the literature, inverse hyperbolic sine [IHS], and level outcomes). The point estimates from the standard logarithmic model finds operational availability for the MLBs decreases at a rate between 0.83 and 1.8% per year and cost increases at a rate between 0.33 and 7.81% per year. Similar effects are shown with the IHS and level outcome specifications. In terms of nonlinearity effects, we find the most pronounced changes in operational availability and cost occur for MLBs aged 15 years or more (in comparison to younger MLBs).