一种确定系统寿命分布的面向对象仿真实现

近年来,面向对象的仿真技术(OOS)有了迅速发展。对于由具有不同分布类型的子系统以不同可靠性逻辑框图(如串联、并联)连接形成的系统,一般是很难求出其理论寿命分布的。本文介绍了一种确定系统寿命分布的面向对象的仿真实现。总系统被看作为由子系统对象组成的对象,每个子系统又是一个抽象的实例。系统的寿命分布样本通过Monte-Carlo法获得,再用统计方法求出寿命分布。仿真在386微机上用C~(++)实现。并通过与理论解对比对仿真进行了有效性验证。     

小子样导弹火控系统可靠性评定检验方案

导弹火控系统是多次使用的长寿命设备,子样小甚至是单件生产。其可靠性评定,检验是研制的关键问题。一火控系统可靠性模型及其工程检验方法 (一)指数寿命型分布及其检验系统寿命(记为T),服从负指数分     

舰船管路系统寿命的确定

舰船管路系统寿命是管路工程设计的重要参数,是影响舰船总体寿命及技术、经济竞争能力的关键因素之一,因此舰船管路系统寿命的确定就显得很重要。为此,首先给出管路系统工程寿命的定义,并据此对制约舰船管路系统工程寿命的一些损伤因素及管路腐蚀规律作了论证,然后查阅国标关于管路材料的强度极限、屈服极限的规定,根据许用应力求得管路极限壁厚,最后确定管路寿命与管路年腐蚀率的关系。结合某型舰船管路系统,分别计算各分系统寿命,进而确定整个管路系统的寿命。     

灰色理论的某型潜射导弹费用分析

在分析某型潜射导弹的寿命周期费用的基础上,根据系统特点,运用灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)模型.累加数列克服原始数列的波动性和随机性,转化为规律性较强的数列,由此建立该导弹的经济寿命预测模型,对导弹的费用进行相关分析.以实例进行计算,进行相应的精度验证检验,计算结果表明所建立的模型和所作的分析是有效可行的,具有实用性.     

履带销磨损寿命预测仿真

履带销是自行火炮推进装置中重要的传力元件。针对履带销磨损的情况建立了接触应力模型,谱块磨损量模型和磨损阈值模型,并对履带销的磨损寿命进行仿真预测。结果表明,仿真结果与实际情况符合。     

几个寿命分布类封闭性的统一证明

利用累积失效函数给出失效率递增(减)类,平均失效率递增(减)类,新比旧好(差)类,按失效率新比旧好(差)类和按平均失效率新比旧好(差)类的等价刻画。通过与指数分布的对比,给出了描述这些分布类的等价条件。利用特定函数类的复合封闭性,给出以上分布类在加速寿命系统和协同系统中的封闭条件的统一证明。     

舰船经济寿命分析方法

针对舰船系统经济寿命的确定问题,介绍了舰船经济寿命分析5个阶段和舰船寿命周期费用的组成,给出了确定舰船经济寿命的方法。为装备更新决策提供依据,对武器装备的全寿命管理有一定参考价值。     

一种寿命分布类——剩余寿命按凸序递减类

在前人研究的寿命分布类的基础上 ,给出一种新的寿命分布类的定义 ,并研究了其有关的性质 (主要是封闭性质 )。     

全系统武器装备的寿命周期与费用分析

武器装备的寿命周期长短受自然、技术和经济三个因素的影响,由年度使用费用最低点,可确定武器装备的寿命周期长短。武器装备管理人员应注重采取效用——费用分析法,对武器装备进行全寿命周期费用分析,在效用一定时选择费用最低方案;在费用限定的情况下,选择可靠性最优方案。对于全系统武器装备,可根据无差异曲线,选择约束条件下的最优方案。     

系统可靠寿命的不确定性分析及其高效方法

为了分析元器件失效率的不确定性对系统可靠性的影响,借鉴Borgonovo的矩独立灵敏度分析思想,在充分考虑了系统可靠寿命完整不确定性信息的情况下,提出了基于系统可靠寿命的矩独立重要性测度,用来分析不确定性条件下系统元器件失效率对其可靠寿命的平均影响。但由于系统可靠寿命函数是系统可靠度函数的反函数,一般无法解析表达而以隐函数的形式存在,致使该矩独立重要性测度难以高效准确求解。为了解决这一问题,文章提出了一种新的Kriging自适应代理模型的高效算法,该算法以Kriging代理模型预测值的变异系数作为自适应学习函数,通过自主增加新的试验样本,增强代理模型的预测准确性。阀门控制系统和民用飞机电液舵机系统两个算例分析表明,在保证计算精度的情况下,通过变异系数自适应学习函数,仅需添加少量系统可靠寿命试验样本,就能够构建用来充分近似系统可靠寿命函数的Kriging代理模型,解决了重要性测度的高效求解问题,从而验证了所提方法的合理性和算法的高效性。     

The effect of stochastic time delays on the reliability of isolated impulse systems

This article concerns the effect of stochastic time delays in the operation of components upon system reliability for isolated impulse systems, for which component delays have hitherto been treated as deterministic. These are systems, such as automatic protective devices, which remain idle for most of their lives but which are required to respond with the utmost speed to input signals arising at arbitrary isolated time instants. System failure can arise from components failing to operate, or from being too slow to operate so that the systems operation is too slow to meet requirements. During operation components are usually subjected to greater stresses than during idling, so that it is assumed that components are subjected to increased failure tendencies during the time it takes them to perform their functions. The effect of stochastic time delays on the evaluation of systems reliability is considered, and a hierarchy of complexity associated with the physical nature of the delays in series and redundant configurations is exposed. Some simple exponential illustrations are presented.     

Reliability acceptance testing for new series systems

The mean time between failures (MTBF) of a newly minted series system, all of whose components exhibit wear, will tend to be much larger than the MTBF of the same system after it has become fully aged. When fully aged systems are used for the testing, acceptance tests with a criterion regarding the MTBF of a well-aged system can be based on the assumption that times between system failures are independent, with identical exponential distributions. However, these tests are shown to offer essentially no consumer protection when applied to new systems. Tests are derived which are correct when new systems are under test but the acceptance criterion refers to the MTBF of a well-aged system. The derivation uses an approximate Poisson distribution which is valid if the total number of systems on test is sufficiently large.     

Estimation of the survival function of a repairable standby series system

This article deals with the statistical analysis of an N-component series system supported by an active standby and one repair facility. Assuming that the life and repair times of the components are independent exponential random variables, the probability distribution of the first passage to the system failure time is shown to be a convolution of two independent exponential distributions. Three observation schemes are considered to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the survival function. Information matrices are supplied. Numerical results based on Monte Carlo simulation are presented. It is noted that component level information (failure rate, repair rate) is not necessary for estimating the survival function of the system.     

Stochastic framework for partially degradation systems with continuous component degradation‐rate‐interactions

Many conventional models that characterize the reliability of multicomponent systems are developed on the premise that for a given system, the failures of its components are independent. Although this facilitates mathematical tractability, it may constitute a significant departure from what really takes place. In many real‐world applications, system components exhibit various degrees of interdependencies, which present significant challenges in predicting degradation performance and the remaining lifetimes of the individual components as well as the system at large. We focus on modeling the performance of interdependent components of networked systems that exhibit interactive degradation processes. Specifically, we focus on how the performance level of one component affects the degradation rates of other dependent components. This is achieved by using stochastic models to characterize how degradation‐based sensor signals associated with the components evolve over time. We consider “Continuous‐Type” component interactions that occur continuously over time. This type of degradation interaction exists in many applications, in which interdependencies occur on a continuum. We use a system of stochastic differential equations to capture such “Continuous‐Type” interaction. In addition, we utilize a Bayesian approach to update the proposed model using real‐time sensor signals observed in the field and provide more accurate estimation of component residual lifetimes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 286–303, 2014     

Tail hazard rate ordering properties of order statistics and coherent systems

We study tail hazard rate ordering properties of coherent systems using the representation of the distribution of a coherent system as a mixture of the distributions of the series systems obtained from its path sets. Also some ordering properties are obtained for order statistics which, in this context, represent the lifetimes of k‐out‐of‐n systems. We pay special attention to systems with components satisfying the proportional hazard rate model or with exponential, Weibull and Pareto type II distributions. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

On the availability of R out of N repairable systems

An R out of N repairable system consisting of N components and operates if at least R components are functioning. Repairable means that failed components are repaired, and upon repair completion they are as good as new. We derive formulas for the expected up‐time, expected down‐time, and the availability of the system, using Markov renewal processes. We assume that either the repair times of the components are generally distributed and the components' lifetimes are exponential or vice versa. The analysis is done for systems with either cold or warm stand‐by. Numerical examples are given for several life time and repair time distributions. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 483–498, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10025     

Mean residual life of coherent systems consisting of multiple types of dependent components

Mean residual life is a useful dynamic characteristic to study reliability of a system. It has been widely considered in the literature not only for single unit systems but also for coherent systems. This article is concerned with the study of mean residual life for a coherent system that consists of multiple types of dependent components. In particular, the survival signature based generalized mixture representation is obtained for the survival function of a coherent system and it is used to evaluate the mean residual life function. Furthermore, two mean residual life functions under different conditional events on components’ lifetimes are also defined and studied.     

The joint signature of coherent systems

We investigate the joint signature of $m$ coherent systems, under the assumption that the components have independent and identically distributed lifetimes. The joint signature, for a particular ordering of failure times, is an $m$‐dimensional matrix depending solely on the composition of the systems and independent of the underlying distribution function of the component lifetimes. The elements of the $m$‐dimensional matrix are formulated based on the joint signatures of numerous series of parallel systems. The number of the joint signatures involved is an exponential function of the number of the minimal cut sets of each original system and may, therefore, be significantly large. We prove that although this number is typically large, a great number of the joint signatures are repeated, or removed by negative signs. We determine the maximum number of different joint signatures based on the number of systems and components. It is independent of the number of the minimal cut sets of each system and is polynomial in the number of components. Moreover, we consider all permutations of failure times and demonstrate that the results for one permutation can be of use for the others. Our theorems are applied to various examples. The main conclusion is that the joint signature can be computed much faster than expected.     

Systems composed of two types of nonidentical and dependent components

A coherent system of order n that consists two different types of dependent components is considered. The lifetimes of the components in each group are assumed to follow an exchangeable joint distribution, and the two random vectors, which represent the lifetimes of the components in each group are also assumed to be dependent. Under this particular form of dependence, all components are assumed to be dependent but they are categorized with respect to their reliability functions. Mixture representation is obtained for the survival function of the system's lifetime. Mixture representations are also obtained for the series and parallel systems consisting of disjoint modules such that all components of Type I are involved in one module (subsystem) and all components of Type II are placed in the other module. The theoretical results are illustrated with examples. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 388–394, 2015     

屏蔽数据在新型截尾样本下系统的可靠性分析

当系统含有屏蔽数据时,在具有随机移走逐步增加型截尾模型下,讨论了部件寿命服从双参数指数分布的串联系统可靠性估计问题。设随机移走系统数服从二项分布,利用极大似然方法,Bayes理论及方法,推导出双参数指数部件参数、系统可靠性函数、失效率函数及移走概率的极大似然估计和Bayes估计。并利用Monte Carlo方法对两种估计结果进行了比较,表明Bayes估计较极大似然估计效果更优。